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Local Broadcast Ad Revenue Seen Growing 26.5% in 2021: BIA Forecast

Tom Buono of BIA Advisory Services at TVB Forward 2021.
Tom Buono of BIA Advisory Services at TVB Forward 2021. (Image credit: TVB Forward 2021)

Local broadcast television advertising revenue is expected to grow 26.5% to $21 billion in 2022 boosted by political spending, according to a new forecast from BIA Advisory Services.

BIA expects stations to see $19.3 billion in over-the-air revenue and $1.7 billion in digital revenue.

BIA Forecasts on Political Ad Spend at TVB Forward 2021.

BIA Forecasts on Political Ad Spend at TVB Forward 2021. (Image credit: TVB Forward/BIA Advisory Services)

Political spending on local TV is expected to be $3.4 billion in 2022, with 44.8% of that going to over-the-air.

"There are many factors that go into our forecasting,” BIA founder and CEO Tom Buono said before outlining the data at the TVB Forward online conference Thursday. “We take into consideration economic trends, consumer behavior, growth in digital ad spending and the local advertising environment. These points have all shifted in an unorthodox way since the pandemic first hit and are now affecting television viewing habits and local advertising spending.”

Looking at the 2019 to 2021 period — straddling the pandemic — BIA sees a V-shaped recovery, with ad revenue in all media hitting a high of $148 billion in 2019, dipping $10 billion in 2020 and bouncing back in 2021. Over the long term, BIA is forecasting a 3.4% annual growth rate.

BIA said OTT is showing significant growth. OTT ad spending is expected to be $1.17 billion in 2021, then grow to $1.64 billion in 2022 and more than $2 billion by 2024.

“While the total local advertising trend in the U.S. is positive, it’s imperative to note that most of the growth is happening on the digital side, which includes mobile, online, and OTT ad channels,” Buono said. ”We expect local digital to exceed local traditional in 2023 (due in large part to continuing declines in print media advertising), making cross-platform selling even more important in the future.”