Media buyer ZenithOptimedia's new forecast for
global ad spending is more optimistic, and cable TV is a bright spot in the
In a report released Monday, ZenithOptimedia said
that "cable networks will continue to build momentum-especially those seen as an
alternative to broadcast prime" such as USA Network, TBS, TNT and FX. After a
strong upfront, prices have been increasing in the scatter market and several
networks nearly sold out in the third quarter.
Zenith expects cable revenues to be 8% higher this
year than in 2009, and projects gains of 9% for 2011 and 7% for 2012.
The media agency also increased its predictions for
spot ad spending. Zenith expects spot to be up 10% in 2010, and 3% in both 2011
and 2012. In July, Zenith expected spot to be up 6% in 2010, 2% in 2011 and 3%
Zenith is maintaining its previous estimate that
broadcast will grow 5% in 2010 and projects that growth will slow to 2% in 2011
and 1% in 2012. While scatter prices have been up, retailers have not increased
spending as much as hoped, Zenith said.
Regarding syndication, Zenith sees a 1% increase in
spending for 2011 and a decrease of 2% in 2011 and 8% in 2012. "Ratings
continue to be a challenge and very few new programs were introduced this
year," Zenith says in its report. "Oprah's departure will further diminish the
supply of top-tier, high-rated syndicated offerings."
For overall TV, Zenith sees all of TV rising 7.4%
in 2010 and 4.2% in 2011 (current prices). For all major media, in the U.S., it
sees a 2.2% growth rate this year and 2.1% in 2011.
In its global forecast for all media, Zenith said
it expected ad spending would rise 4.8% this year, up from 3.5% in its earlier
estimates, and that spending would grow 4.6% in 2011, up from an original
forecast of 4.5%. In 2012, Zenith sees 5.4% growth, with 6% growth rates
possible "once advertisers regain confidence in the economy."
Earlier Monday, MagnaGlobal also released an upgraded forecast for mediaspending.
The television industry's top news stories, analysis and blogs of the day.
Thank you for signing up to Broadcasting & Cable. You will receive a verification email shortly.
There was a problem. Please refresh the page and try again.