Media buyer ZenithOptimedia's new forecast for
global ad spending is more optimistic, and cable TV is a bright spot in the
U.S.
In a report released Monday, ZenithOptimedia said
that "cable networks will continue to build momentum-especially those seen as an
alternative to broadcast prime" such as USA Network, TBS, TNT and FX. After a
strong upfront, prices have been increasing in the scatter market and several
networks nearly sold out in the third quarter.
Zenith expects cable revenues to be 8% higher this
year than in 2009, and projects gains of 9% for 2011 and 7% for 2012.
The media agency also increased its predictions for
spot ad spending. Zenith expects spot to be up 10% in 2010, and 3% in both 2011
and 2012. In July, Zenith expected spot to be up 6% in 2010, 2% in 2011 and 3%
in 2012.
Zenith is maintaining its previous estimate that
broadcast will grow 5% in 2010 and projects that growth will slow to 2% in 2011
and 1% in 2012. While scatter prices have been up, retailers have not increased
spending as much as hoped, Zenith said.
Regarding syndication, Zenith sees a 1% increase in
spending for 2011 and a decrease of 2% in 2011 and 8% in 2012. "Ratings
continue to be a challenge and very few new programs were introduced this
year," Zenith says in its report. "Oprah's departure will further diminish the
supply of top-tier, high-rated syndicated offerings."
For overall TV, Zenith sees all of TV rising 7.4%
in 2010 and 4.2% in 2011 (current prices). For all major media, in the U.S., it
sees a 2.2% growth rate this year and 2.1% in 2011.
In its global forecast for all media, Zenith said
it expected ad spending would rise 4.8% this year, up from 3.5% in its earlier
estimates, and that spending would grow 4.6% in 2011, up from an original
forecast of 4.5%. In 2012, Zenith sees 5.4% growth, with 6% growth rates
possible "once advertisers regain confidence in the economy."
Earlier Monday, MagnaGlobal also released an upgraded forecast for mediaspending.
