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U.S. Political Spending Impacts GroupM Ad Forecast

Worldwide TV ad spending is expected to drop 3% in 2019 before rising by 1.5% in 2020, according to an updated forecast from media agency GroupM.

In its report, GroupM noted that TV’s volatility was mainly due to activity in the U.S., which is heavily impacted by the political advertising cycle. The U.S. accounts for about 36% of the world’s TV advertising, according to the agency.

Total worldwide advertising is expected to increase 3.4% in 2019, or 4.6% if U.S. political advertising is excluded. GroupM sees faster growth in 2020 at 4.7% excluding political and 6% including election year spending.

“While the economic foundations supporting the advertising industry are somewhat fragile at this time, growth trends are holding up for now,” said Brian Wieser, global president of business intelligence at GroupM.

Digital now accounts for 50% of global ad spending, up from 25% in 2014. “However, as digital media continues to mature, GroupM predicts its share of spending will eventually plateau. As a result growth will ultimately decelerate with each passing year to eventually converge with global average.