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Being Upfront About Their Chances


THE SITUATION: After years of searching for its funny bone, ABC
this season has taken baby steps toward renewing its comedic
identity, a once-storied brand that included iconic hits Roseanne and
Home Improvement. Wednesday-night sitcoms The Middle, Modern
and Cougar Town are a good start. Hank was DOA. But so far,
Modern Family, which has the quality and ratings momentum to be
a long-term franchise, is really the only program of the three that has
found its legs. The Middle and Cougar Town are averaging 2.2 and
3.1, respectively, so far this season. And those numbers are not quite
long-term-hit-worthy. A fourth comedy is essential to fill out the
Wednesday lineup. A second two-hour comedy block is beyond ambitious.
But a couple more would do wonders for ABC’s heretofore
dismal repeatability potential, a major conundrum for the network.

WHAT’S WORKING:A rejuvenated Dancing With the Stars, and
the surprisingly still popular Bachelor and Bachelorette, have been
clutch. But ABC is also weathering aging drama hits and a future
without Lost. To be sure, Grey’s Anatomy and Desperate Housewives
are a couple of old gals that would be more than welcome at
competing nets. But their use-by date is getting closer. The 10 p.m.
crime drama Castle, another middling performer, has nevertheless
given ABC at long last a procedural. (Castle was probably buoyed by
increased sampling during NBC’s Leno-in-primetime period.)

ABC needs to keep rebuilding comedy while
also re-stocking the drama shelves with a combination of sweet-spot
soapy dramedy, a la Desperate, and another reliable procedural.


THE SITUATION:CBS’ dilemma is shelf space. And wouldn’t its
competitors love to have that particular cross to bear.

WHAT’S WORKING:The network’s crime wave snowballed this
season with two successful drama launches, NCIS: Los Angeles and
The Good Wife, plus the incredible momentum of NCIS, which hit a
high-ratings mark in its seventh season. Meanwhile, sophomore hit
The Mentalist continues to post strong numbers. The network’s CSI
franchise is aging but stable for now, while a couple of B-list procedurals,
including Numbers, have been consigned to the scrap heap.
Launching procedural franchises is what CBS has done best. And
another one would put the network well beyond its competitors.

CBS’ Monday-night sitcoms are solid and have turned out lucrative
back-end deals for their studios. (Big Bang Theory is being pitched to
syndication buyers now and could go for as much as $4 million an
episode, including cable.)

The Wednesday-night sitcom block is populated
by middling performers Accidentally on Purpose, Old Christine
and Gary Unmarried. Yes, comedy can take time to jell, but CBS is
looking for another Two and a Half Men, not another Accidentally on
. And the sooner, the better. After all, how long is the perennially
personally challenged Charlie Sheen going to continue to do
Two and a Half Men


THE SITUATION: The CW seems to have found its niche—an
oxymoronic concept for a broadcast network, except if you’re The
CW, apparently. With Gossip Girl, 90210, Vampire Diaries and the reliably
puerile America’s Next Top Model, The CW has created a niche
channel for young women who consume the network’s content
across platforms.

WHAT’S WORKING: The network has embraced its sweet spot,
jettisoning incongruous programs like broad family comedies and
wrestling in favor of a schedule chock-a-block with melodramas
populated by the young, beautiful and unscrupulous. (In fact, The CW
put zero comedies in development this year.)

The CW could use a new reality hit to bolster
Top Model
, which will eventually start to develop crow’s feet.
There are multiple candidates in the wings, including weight-loss
and dance competition shows. The Vampire Diaries, Supernatural,
Smallville, Gossip Girl
and 90210 are all coming back next season. If
The CW can turn one or two new dramas into cult hits, it may have
to rethink its niche status.


THE SITUATION: Fox can still boast the juggernaut status of
American Idol and one of this season’s new hits in Glee, though
the musical dramedy is not (yet) the monster hit some Fox executives
are hoping for. But the network is confronting the end of the
Simon Cowell era on Idol. And although Cowell will be on Fox in a
new version of his U.K. hit X Factor, his exit will irreparably change
the chemistry on Idol, which has seen modest ratings erosion over
the last several seasons. And there is no guarantee that two singing
competition shows can peacefully co-exist on the network.

Fox is also losing Mr. January, Jack Bauer, as 24 is coming to an end.
The show, along with Idol, has been a linchpin of Fox’s midseason
slate for nearly a decade.

WHAT’S WORKING: Dramas House, Bones and Fringe are holding
steady, and while everyone has ideas to “fix” Idol, it’s still the biggest
game in town.

Fox has thrown its development dollars at
comedy. The network that was launched on the subversive comedy
of Married With Children and The Simpsons has struggled lately to
keep anything but its animated comedies alive. Sons of Tucson and
Brothers can fairly be described as bombs. And ‘Til Death has come
to the end of its mirthless life after a handful of seasons. The Simpsons
has been doing the heavy lifting on Sundays for 20 years and
counting; it’s time Homer and company got a little more help. And,
like every year, a Yankees-Cubs World Series wouldn’t hurt, though
in 2010, like every year, only half of that equation is realistic.


THE SITUATION: NBC executives are spending their way out of a slump, upping
the development budget by 30% year-to-year in the wake of the aborted Lenoto-
primetime gambit. They’ve already given green lights to multiple big-ticket
items including the J.J. Abrams drama Undercovers (cost of pilot: $10 million), Jerry
Bruckheimer’s Chase and The Event, an ambitious drama thriller with a big (read:
expensive) cast.

NBC is also bringing back Law & Order: SVU and adding another spinoff, Law &
Order: Los Angeles

The network has in addition renewed freshman series Parenthood (executive-
produced by Ron Howard and Brian Grazer), which is the kind of soft,
expensive drama that has virtually no aftermarket. But these days, NBC needs
the high-class eyeballs. So, the pressure is on, both from a ratings and dollars

NBC’s comedy performance remains stronger in the Zeitgeist
than on the Nielsen charts. But as long as Steve Carrell’s terminally unseemly
Michael Scott stays in Scranton (a question as of late) and Tina Fey can keep Alec
Baldwin on the payroll—and the straight and narrow—neither The Office nor
30 Rock is going anywhere. Community is multiple ratings points away from hit
status, but together with the improving Parks and Recreation, it’s enough to make
a stable Thursday comedy block.

NBC just needs one big breakout hit to get everyone off its
back, period. Especially with Comcast honchos scrutinizing the performance of
every single NBC executive as we speak.