Wall Street’s enthusiasm for the strength of advertising continued to grow with another analyst raising his estimate for U.S. spending.
Barclays Capital’s Anthony DiClemente’s new forecast calls for 3.5% growth in 2011, up from an earlier forecast of 2% and 5.5% in 2012, up from 4.7%.
“Our new estimates are driven by strength from cable TV, network TV and local broadcast,” DiClemente said in a research note, adding that his 2011 estimate is above the Wall Street consensus and his 2012 figure is the highest on the Street.
DiClemente sees a rebound by the carmakers driving the ad spending recovery. The newly passed tax laws should help the economy overall, which in turn helps ad spending.
Of course, not all media will benefit equally from the rising ad tide. “We estimate cable TV advertising will continue to reach new highs, growing in the high single digits annually. At network TV and local broadcast stations, a strong upfront, an improving economic backdrop and increasing consumer spending has helped drive robust pricing in the scatter market, which continues to pace up by at least double digits above upfront levels,” he says.
On the other hand, he thinks radio, magazines, newspapers and directories will lose market share.
Michael Malone, senior content producer at B+C/Multichannel News, covers network programming, including entertainment, news and sports on broadcast, cable and streaming; and local broadcast television. He hosts the podcasts Busted Pilot, about what’s new in television, and Series Business, a chat with the creator of a new program, and writes the column “The Watchman.” He joined B+C in 2005. His journalism has also appeared in The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer, Playboy and New York magazine.
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