BTIG media analyst Richard
Greenfield mapped out his top Ten Media Issues/Events to Watch in 2011, with retransmission consent heading what proves to be a diverse
Greenfield, a long-time media
watcher, has never been shy of controversy, and this year's list appears
to be in keeping with that tradition. Here's his list, with a brief
Broadcast TV Affiliate
Model Begins to Crack as Retrans Reform Fails and Networks Take Center
Stage vs. Affiliates (and Distributors).
Greenfield writes that local broadcast TV adds very little value beyond
network fare (especially for those viewers not yet eligible for Social
Security benefits) and expects the broadcast networks to continue to
reap gains in retrans revenue while taking a larger share of their affiliates'
retrans hauls. The analyst also does not expect Congress - which has
been threatening retrans reform - to get involved in 2011.
Starz Renews Netflix
Agreement. Greenfield asserts that although movie and TV streaming
is evenly split among Netflix viewers, Starz is the single largest piece
of its movie segment and is critical for Netflix to maintain. Greenfield
expects a Starz/Netflix renewal late in the first quarter in the $300
million neighborhood. "If no deal happens, look for Netflix to try
and buy Liberty Starz," Greenfield wrote.
Grow in 2011 - Debunking Cord Cutting.
While multichannel video subs were expected to be flat-to-up slightly
in 2010, Greenfield sees growth in 2011, muffling the cord-cutting "noise"
that has dominated for the past six months. "Look for both cable network
stock and multichannel video provider stock multiples to benefit from
reduced investor fears," he wrote.
Click here for the full story at Multichannel.com
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