If AT&T makes good on its recent suggestion that it will have 50% U.S. market penetration for fiber-to-the-home services by 2023, it could poach around 1 million customers each from both Comcast and Charter, and another 200,000 from Altice USA.
This is the conclusion put forth in a report this morning by equity research company Cowen, which suggested that such a hit could also impact Comcast’s earnings before taxes, interest and depreciation (EBITDA) by around $1.1 billion. Charter would take an $885 million EBITDA hit, while Altice USA would be down $162 million under the model.
AT&T has deployed FTTH to around 3 million homes in each of the past two years, and company management recently suggested it could reach 50% market penetration in three years.
Of course, Cowen’s dire prediction entails there being no response by the cable industry.
Cable, Cowen noted, has a “solid track record” vs. fiber overbuilds. There will also be coming speed upgrades driven by new DOCSIS technologies; and an improved focus on the customer experience and in-home IoT.
“As we keep a watchful eye on broadband trends through the year, we remain confident that cable will manage the AT&T fiber pressure,” the firm said in its report.
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Daniel Frankel is the managing editor of Next TV, an internet publishing vertical focused on the business of video streaming. A Los Angeles-based writer and editor who has covered the media and technology industries for more than two decades, Daniel has worked on staff for publications including E! Online, Electronic Media, Mediaweek, Variety, paidContent and GigaOm. You can start living a healthier life with greater wealth and prosperity by following Daniel on Twitter today!