Netflix delighted investors last week when it revealed the addition of 4.5 million customers globally in the third quarter.
The streaming company's redemption arc also included narrow growth of around 100,000 customers in the U.S. and Canada from July - September. But no one, including Netflix, expects the domestic region -- which is down around 600,000 Netflix subscribers over the last 12 months -- to yield user growth anytime soon, at least not in a significant way.
New data from Fort Collins, Colorado research company Aluma shows why. Almost 90% of U.S broadband homes now have a connected TV, and about 82% of broadband homes have at least one smart TV.
Currently, the share of U.S. homes equipped with high-speed internet is somewhat stuck at around 84%, according to cable industry trade group NCTA. And pending some magic formula for rural build-outs, that percentage isn't likely to increase markedly anytime soon.
"In the next few years, CTV and SVOD diffusion will begin bumping up against saturation, not because there aren't U.S. households that don't yet use their products but because broadband diffusion beyond 85% will be painfully slow," said Aluma principal Michael Greeson, also referencing data Aluma published back in June.
"The vast majority of those [who] want broadband already [have] it, as do those [who] want to watch streaming video on a connected TV. The hope is new demand for streaming video will ultimately push broadband into more U.S. households, but even then, annual percentage gains will be in low single digitals," Greeson added.
Here's another graphic Aluma published for its members in June, showing the convergence of broadband, CTV and SVOD saturation.
