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Analyst Forecasts 5% Decline in Total TV Advertising

Analyst Michael Nathanson of MoffettNathanson Research is forecasting a bigger decline in TV advertising for 2017.

In a new report released Thursday (Aug. 24), Nathanson said he sees national and local TV ad revenue decreasing by 5.1% compared with his prior 4.1% estimate.

Nathanson said he expects the broadcast networks to drop 4%; cable nets, 2.5%; local TV stations, 9% (including political ads); local cable, 10%; and syndication, 1%.

Related: Analyst Forecasts 5% Decline in Total TV Advertising

Overall, Nathanson’s latest forecast sees U.S. advertising growing at a slower 2.5% rate, with digital increasing 18.5%.

The new forecast follows second-quarter earnings reports in which most TV companies reported lower advertising sales. Total national TV ad revenue was down 2%.

More recently major ad agency holding companies have reported lower revenue because of spending cutback by big clients.

“Simply put, traditional media and agencies in the U.S. face the same problem,” Nathanson said in a report Thursday. "They have too much client concentration in sectors like retail, consumer products and auto that are not growing budgets and not enough small-to-medium sized enterprises that continue to fuel online growth."


Jon has been business editor of Broadcasting+Cable since 2010. He focuses on revenue-generating activities, including advertising and distribution, as well as executive intrigue and merger and acquisition activity. Just about any story is fair game, if a dollar sign can make its way into the article. Before B+C, Jon covered the industry for TVWeek, Cable World, Electronic Media, Advertising Age and The New York Post. A native New Yorker, Jon is hiding in plain sight in the suburbs of Chicago.