TNS Media Intelligence
Full-Year Forecast
TNS Media Intelligence
New York City
www.tns-mi.com
Advertising spending is expected to increase 4.9% through the end of the year, to $150.3 billion, including a projected 6% advance on English-language cable television, according to forecasts from TNS Media Intelligence.
Spending on Spanish-language media, including Hispanic-targeted cable networks, is predicted to increase across those platforms by 12.9%, according to TNS estimates.
The global figure represents a downward revision by the strategic advertising-information firm, which had originally predicted 5.4% growth across all platforms.
TNS CEO Steven Fredericks said the revision was attributable to a change in methodology. Past estimates were based on advertising spending that exceeds the country's total economic output, he explained, noting that this year those figures match, requiring a revision in projections.
Media will benefit from political advertising this year, but will suffer from budgetary cutbacks related to consolidation in the telephone industry, a reduction in department store advertising schedules and a slowdown in the automotive sector, according to Fredericks.
He said the predictions show “softer demand” for cable advertising, after a period of robust gains. This is due to industry consolidation and slowdown in the amount of available advertising inventory. Fredericks noted that the medium's growth rate is still predicted to exceed the industry average.
The Internet, forecast to rise at a 13% clip, is expected to set the pace overall relative to growth, he said, drawing in both new ad dollars and cannibalizing traditional media, mostly print and radio buys. Six percent of the growth can be attributed to Internet display ads, with the balance tied to media search-related advertising. The latter category is estimated at $20 billion this year, the fastest growing platform, Frederick said.
“We're looking to double [that prediction] every two-and-a-half years,” he added.
Internet, Spanish-language media, spot TV, outdoor, network TV and cable are projected to perform above the industry average. Consumer and Sunday magazines, syndicated TV, radio and newspapers are expected to under perform, while business-to-business magazines is the only category predicted to decline, by a 0.3% clip.
