The Multichannel TV Landscape
Estimates of traditional pay TV subscribers continue to fall, with Magna Global now predicting there will be about 74.7 million traditional pay TV homes in 2021, a drop of 23 million since 2016. Magna also predicts rapid growth in virtual MVPDs, though — they should hit 28.9 million subs by 2021.
The Multichannel Business
Given ongoing subscriber losses, PwC has revised downward its estimates for U.S. subscription fee revenue growth: It now predicts growth will remain relatively flat at $100.8 billion in 2018 and sees only a modest increase to $101.1 billion by 2021. But total broadband access spending will continue to see healthy growth, rising to $59.9 billion in 2021.
Spotlight on Advertising
Digital advertising first surpassed the TV ad spend in 2016, and Magna predicts that it will hit levels at more than double the TV ad spend by 2021, when digital will hit $124.6 billion versus $57.4 billion for TV.
The Content Game
PwC predicts strong growth for the electronic home video sector, with electronic video rentals growing from $11.4 billion in 2017 to $15.7 billion in 2021. Revenue from sports media rights will increase to $22.7 billion in North America by 2021.
OTT and Gaming: A Closer Look
Revenue from subscription and transactional video services will jump from $13.6 billion in 2017 to $18.8 billion in 2021 while video game revenue will grow to $28.2 billion by 2021, according to PwC.
The Emerging Platform View
About 42% of users still select TV as their primary digital platform, versus 11% for mobile phones and 25% for computers, according to recent survey data from Frank N. Magid Associates, which also reports increased interest in live streaming video and virtual reality technologies.
The Multichannel, Multidevice World
While 82% of 18-to-34-year-olds still have a multichannel subscription, 91% of these young adults have an SVOD service, and even more than half of Americans age 50 and older are SVOD subscribers, according to Horowitz Research.
The Multicultural, Multimedia Universe
Hispanics have embraced digital video in a big way, with 79% having an SVOD service, versus 72% of the general market and 87% of Hispanics reporting that they can stream video to the TV, according to Horowitz Research.
A recent survey from Magid notes that the intention to cut the cord has reached record levels, at 6.1%, while Magna expects the number of cord-cutters to hit 27.1 million by 2021.
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