In a few short days, the 2020 Oscar season will blessedly come to a close with the awarding of, yes, the Academy Awards, concluding a pummeling gauntlet of lesser awards shows, events, receptions and screenings that kicked into gear way back around Labor Day. 

But for Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and the rest of the streaming services that have weaponized the awards process for their own marketing purposes, there’s not much rest ahead, no matter how draining the past few months have been. 

Where once the film business heaved a collective sigh and headed to Palm Springs or Jackson Hole for a little post-Oscars R&R, there’s no such break in streaming land.

Unlike the traditional Hollywood studios, where film was film and TV was TV, and each division largely had their own awards season, the major streaming services care little about old-school media operating units. 

What they do care about is getting as much awards recognition as they can. Those awards, and the endless conversations about awards contenders leading up to the ceremonies, convey a sense of quality programming to subscribers who must pay up each month.

It’s a strategy that has been hugely profitable for pay-TV king HBO the past quarter century, as it racked up dozens of Emmys and billions of dollars in subscriber fees. Whether the same approach will work for the revamped HBO Max, set to launch in April with a remit to pump out far more programming, will play out over the next couple of seasons. 

In the meantime, plenty of others are already in the awards game. 

It’s been particularly important for Netflix, otherwise vulnerable to being dissed for huge amounts of not very remarkable shows. Salting in a few award winners amid the monthly flood communicates quality. 

This season, according to a New York Times story from earlier this week, Netflix has spent at least $70 million to secure its 24 Oscar nominations. 

Netflix first hit awards pay dirt with 2013’s House of Cards. The political thriller featured David Fincher as executive producer (he won an Emmy for directing) and starred Kevin Spacey and Robin Wright (who won Golden Globes and were nominated for multiple Emmys).

Netflix’s other prestige hit of the era, Orange is the New Black, lasted longer and didn’t win nearly as often, but was a consistent contender throughout a 91-episode run. 

Pulling in Emmys and Golden Globes was a good first step. But beginning in 2018, Netflix escalated its awards regime, setting its sights on the Oscars. 

Netflix first hired renowned Hollywood awards promoter Lisa Taback, along with her entire organization. Taback had consulted for such Oscar winners as La La Land and Spotlight. 

At the same time, Netflix acquired a handful of serious contenders (Roma by Alfonso Cuaron, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs by the Coen Bros., and Bird Box, directed by Susanne Bier and starring Sandra Bullock). 

And then Netflix did a remarkable thing. It put those movies into theaters before showing them to its customers. That approach qualified the films for Oscar consideration and moderately appeased film purists and auteur directors alike. 

Even though the theatrical runs were short and limited to a few dozen screens, they tapped into the publicity and media engine surrounding every week’s film releases, and the even bigger engine around Oscar contenders. Netflix also backed its contenders with serious cash. 

For Roma alone, Netflix spent $50 million or more, pushing an unprecedented Best Picture win for a foreign-language film. Roma fell short but still won the foreign-language Oscar, and Cuaron won for directing and cinematography. Not bad for a black-and-white period piece in Spanish and Mixtec, featuring a first-time actress. 

Netflix also won Oscars for Buster Scruggs and a documentary short, while horror film Bird Box became one of the service’s most watched features. 

This year, Netflix went even wider, giving 10 films limited theatrical releases. Among those getting the treatment were two eventual Best Picture nominees, a documentary feature nominee and an animated feature contender among 24 nominations. 

After Netflix’s big push in the 2019 season, Amazon Prime Studios created its own in-house awards team, headed by Debra Birnbaum, a former Variety and TV Guide editor. 

Amazon’s awards team was put together far too late to make a significant impact last Oscar season, especially while Prime Studios underwent a major strategy shift under new studio head Jennifer Salke.

But it likely paid off during the 2019 Emmys, when Fleabag won Outstanding Comedy Series and five other statues, and The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel picked up another eight awards on top of the eight it won the previous year. 

Birnbaum had less to work with this Oscar season, after Amazon’s handful of feature acquisitions largely underperformed at the box office and never took off as contenders. But don’t expect the situation to stay that way. 

If the buying frenzy at the just-wrapped Sundance Film Festival is any guide, this year’s Emmy and Oscar seasons should be even more hard fought as new services push their projects. At the festival, most of the big services acquired multiple projects, for prices up to a record $17.5 million. 

Also read: Tubi Signs Sundance Deal For Robert Rodriguez's Next $7K Film

Documentaries such as Boy’s State were particularly hot, an example of both changing audience tastes in the streaming world and a growing understanding that Oscars look good on the corporate mantle regardless of category.  

At least some of those Sundance pickups likely will contend in 2021, especially as newcomers figure out their own awards strategy. Count on 2021 to be one of the most competitive, and endless, awards seasons ever. 

That should comfort you as you get ready for Emmy season, which kicks in right after South By Southwest.

Last week, after Needham & Co. Laura Martin downgraded the stock and predicted that competition from the likes of Disney +, Apple TV + and Peacock would erode Netflix’s domestic customer base, Netflix shares took a big hit, dropping more than 3% in one day and casting doubt on the future of the SVOD pioneer.

And then, a few days passed.

By Dec. 16, investors seemed to have lost their doubt about the future of the streaming service, lifting the stock to $304.21, up 2% from the previous trading day (Dec. 13) and nearly 4% above the $293.12 hole the downgrade had pushed it into. By Tuesday (Dec. 17) afternoon, Netflix stock was up another 3.7% to $315.48, it’s highest level since Nov. 27 ($315.93). A day later, the stock grew yet again, closing at $320.80 on Dec. 18, up nearly 2%. On Dec. 19, the stock closed at $332.22, up another 3.6% rise.

Another crisis averted. Like the weather in New England, it appears that if Netflix shareholders don’t like the way the stock is moving, just wait a few minutes, things will change.

Fueling that growth spurt was a Securities and Exchange Commission filing where Netflix, notoriously stingy with detailed subscriber data, issued a report that showed while growth in the U.S. is beginning to slow, the slack is more than being taken up in other countries.

According to the filing,  which came out weeks before Netflix is scheduled to report Q4 results on Jan. 21, about 90% of its growth and half of its 158 million customers are coming outside of the U.S., with Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) clocking in with 140% customer growth and 196% revenue growth between Q1 2017 and Q3 2019. Netflix has said that starting in Q4 it will break out results by region.

In Asia, a market Netflix has been trying to crack for years, customers numbered about 14.5 million, but subscriber and revenue growth since Q1 2017 has been 211% and 229%, respectively.

Anyone who has followed Netflix for a length of time already knows that international has been the growth engine for the company for years. In a blog post, Lightshed Partners’ Rich Greenfield said domestic subscribers at Netflix have been on the slow since 2012, the same time as international additions started to pick up.

“Netflix has been an international growth story for years now – anything to the contrary is misleading,” Greenfield wrote. He added that there is still substantial runway for international growth and estimated there are 500 million fixed broadband households in EMEA, Asia-Pacific and Latin America (excluding China), growing at a rate of “tens of millions of households per year.” Netflix has about 91 million subscribers in those areas, implying a penetration rate of about 20%, vs. 66% for the U.S. and Canada.

“Simply put, the global growth opportunity is significant, particularly as Netflix leverages a large U.S. content base and invests heavily in local/regional content,” Greenfield wrote. “It is not hard to imagine Netflix reaching 200-250 million international subscribers in the future.”

Other analysts have pointed to the international opportunity in the past. Sanford Bernstein media analyst Todd Juenger has said he believes the SVOD pioneer could reach 300 million global subscribers by 2030. In a note last week to clients, he reiterated his bullish stance on the company.

The SEC filing also seemed to poke holes in another big criticism of the Netflix service, that its international customers won’t be willing to accept price increases. According to the filing, the average rate per home in the EMEA region has risen 19.7% since 2017, in Latin America it’s gone up 10% and in Asia-Pacific, rates have increased 5.7%, and there has been no effect on growth.

So, losing 4 million domestic subscribers doesn’t seem like such a big deal, except that Martin’s report showed that the biggest impact would be on perception. Domestic subscriber growth, she wrote, has been the catalyst that has driven the stock to new highs over the past couple of years. And though she acknowledges international growth -- her report came out before Netflix released its international figures on Dec. 16 -- she writes that U.S. subscribers are more valuable.

Martin wrote that the profit contribution of each U.S. customer is three times that of an international customer, which implies that the company’s negative free cash flow worsens as U.S. subscribers decline. That, Martin wrote, means Netflix has to divert more capital to recapture those subscribers, taking it away from content.

“The problem with Netflix if it loses U.S. subs is it loses its growth stock credentials,” Martin told CNBC on Dec. 10. “So it will no longer trade at 7 times revenue, it will get revalued at 15 times EV/EBITDA, which is like half on the stock price.”

She added that Netflix also must respond to the Disney + and Apple TV Plus price points. “You just can’t have a $13 [per month] response,” Martin said

Netflix stock has never been for the faint of heart. Go back to 2009 and 2010, when a 300% swing in the stock price over a matter of months wasn’t uncommon. The same held true for 2013, when Netflix stock ranged from a low of $13.14 each to a high of $52.60. Although the swings have gotten less dramatic recently, Last year, Netflix shares went from $191.96 on Dec. 29, 2017 to $284.59 on Jan. 29, 2018, a 48% increase in just 30 days.

So, I guess this is a long way of saying, don’t sweat the small swings in the stock. Bigger gains and losses are likely ahead.

Martin has made bold statements before (and been proven right). And though not everyone is right 100% of the time, people have been waiting for the Netflix bubble to burst for awhile.

Martin said that the competitively priced Disney + and Apple TV +, at $6.99 and $4.99 per month, respectively, has heightened the need for Netflix to come up with a similarly priced tier for consumers. Netflix raised its prices earlier in the year from $11 to $13 per month for its streaming service. Overall Netflix prices range from $9 for basic service (single stream, SD), to $16 for premium (four screens, HD and 4K).

In the Dec. 10 CNBC segment, Martin said Disney was the catalyst for the downgrade. She added that she believes about half of the 16 million new accounts Disney says have signed up for Disney + are coming from Netflix.

Related: The Song Remains The Same 

According to Yahoo! Finance, Netflix is trading at about 55 times Enterprise Value/EBITDA.

But there are a lot of questions around the impact of Disney + so far. Yes, 10 million people downloaded the app and signed up for the service on the first day, but the vast majority of those customers were getting it for free. And yes, some analysts predict about 24 million people signed up for the service in November, but again, a lot of those customers are coming from services that have offered free Disney + trials (Verizon, for example, is offering a free year of Disney + to its unlimited data customers).

And then there is the question of whether Disney + paying customers are dropping Netflix or any other SVOD service, or are just carrying them all.

Martin’s downgrade came just as Netflix chief product officer Ted Sarandos said more than 26 million people watched the much-hyped Martin Scorsese movie The Irishman in the first seven days after its Nov, 27 debut on the service, and that he expected 40 million to watch over 28 days. That performance was on par with the previous seven-day champ (Sandra Bullock horror movie Bird Box) which also tallied 26 million viewers after its debut about a year ago.

And it also should be noted that Disney + is loaded mostly with kids library content like Disney Channel series, animated classics and the Star Wars movies. Original content is limited, with Star Wars saga The Mandalorian topping the list, and other series like The World According to Jeff Goldblum, Encore! and High School Musical: The Musical: The Series. It wouldn’t be a stretch to think that Disney + subscribers are more than willing to shell out $7 per month for their children’s content needs, while the adults in the house watch Netflix, or Hulu, or Amazon Prime Video, or CBS All Access, or literally anything else.

In a research note, Pivotal Research Group CEO and senior media & communications analyst Jeff Wlodarczak attributed much of Disney +’s early success “to the fact that it is free for [about] 20 million potential U.S. households and usage by consumers that download the product has been anemic (unsurprising given the lack of original content).” He added that he believes that the discounting of Netflix stock because of Disney is “a mistake that will likely show up in very high subscriber churn as they try to move consumers even to their relatively low monthly pricing.”

In Wlodarczak’s eyes, Disney + is targeted at homes that have children less than 13 years of age (about 33 million households), “but is certainly not a Netflix killer.”

The solution in Martin’s view is something that other streaming services have adopted, but that Netflix has adamantly opposed: advertising.

Hulu, owned by Disney, is probably the prime example of an ad-supported streaming service. In Q3, Hulu said it had about 28 million customers, more than 70% who subscribed to its ad-supported tier, priced at $5.99 per month. Hulu also has an ad-free tier for $11.99 per month.

Peacock, the NBCUniversal streaming service set to launch in April, will be free to Comcast customers while others may have to pay an undisclosed and monthly fee. NBCU has said that Peacock will be ad-supported.

In her report, Martin wrote that Netflix could price a service at between $5 and $7 per month, and supplement it with a 6 minute to 8 minute per hour ad load. Since the average Netflix viewer watches the service about two hours per day, that could translate into an additional $6 of incremental revenue per customer per month, she wrote.

I’m not sure if Netflix will be as attractive with ads as without, but I’m equally unsure of whether Disney +, Apple TV +, HBO Max, Peacock and any of the others that will come along in the future will be either. I guess, like the weather in New England, we'll just have to wait and see. 

Netflix once again flexed its muscles within the awards arena by garnering the most Screen Actors Guild nominations in both the television and film categories, SAG announced this morning in Los Angeles. 

Much like its Golden Globe awards performance earlier this week, Netflix drew more nominations than any other broadcast, cable and streaming service. The streaming service  garnered 13 nominations, topping HBO’s 10 and Prime Video’s seven award nominations, according to SAG.

RELATED: Netflix, HBO Dominate Golden Globe Nominations 

Netflix also drew seven nominations in the motion picture category, led by four nominations for Martin Scorsese drama The Irishman, said SAG.

Prime Video’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel was the most nominated TV show with four SAG Awards nods, including two best female comedy actor recognitions for Alex Borstein and Rachel Brosnahan.

The SAG Awards Ceremony will be simulcast live on Jan. 19 on TNT and TBS at 8 p.m.

A partial list of SAG Award nominees in the television category appears below:

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series

"Big Little Lies"

"The Crown"

"Game Of Thrones"

"The Handmaid’s Tale"

"Stranger Things"

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series

STERLING K. BROWN / Randall Pearson – “THIS IS US”

STEVE CARELL / Mitch Kessler – “THE MORNING SHOW”

BILLY CRUDUP / Corey Ellison – “THE MORNING SHOW”

PETER DINKLAGE / Tyrion Lannister – “GAME OF THRONES”

DAVID HARBOUR / Jim Hopper – “STRANGER THINGS”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series

JENNIFER ANISTON / Alex Levy – “THE MORNING SHOW”

HELENA BONHAM CARTER / Princess Margaret – “THE CROWN”

OLIVIA COLMAN / Queen Elizabeth II – “THE CROWN”

JODIE COMER /Villanelle – “KILLING EVE”

ELISABETH MOSS / Offred/June – “THE HANDMAID’S TALE”

Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series

"Barry"

"Fleabag"

"The Kominsky Method"

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel""

"Schitt’s Creek"

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series

ALAN ARKIN / Norman Newlander – “THE KOMINSKY METHOD”

MICHAEL DOUGLAS / Sandy Kominsky – “THE KOMINSKY METHOD”

BILL HADER / Barry – “BARRY”

ANDREW SCOTT / The Priest – “FLEABAG”

TONY SHALHOUB / Abe Weissman – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series

CHRISTINA APPLEGATE / Jen Harding – “DEAD TO ME”

ALEX BORSTEIN / Susie Myerson – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL”

RACHEL BROSNAHAN / Midge Maisel – “THE MARVELOUS MRS. MAISEL”

CATHERINE O’HARA / Moira Rose – “SCHITT’S CREEK”

PHOEBE WALLER-BRIDGE / Fleabag – “FLEABAG”

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

MAHERSHALA ALI / Wayne Hays – “TRUE DETECTIVE”

RUSSELL CROWE / Roger Ailes – “THE LOUDEST VOICE”

JARED HARRIS / Valery Legasov – “CHERNOBYL”

JHARREL JEROME / Korey Wise – “WHEN THEY SEE US”

SAM ROCKWELL / Bob Fosse – “FOSSE/VERDON”

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series

PATRICIA ARQUETTE / Dee Dee Blanchard – “THE ACT”

TONI COLLETTE / Det. Grace Rasmussen – “UNBELIEVABLE”

JOEY KING / Gypsy Rose Blanchard – “THE ACT”

EMILY WATSON / Ulana Khomyuk – “CHERNOBYL”

MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Gwen Verdon – “FOSSE/VERDON”

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series

"Game of Thrones"

"GLOW"

"Stranger Things"

"The Walking Dead"

"Watchmen" 

Netflix chief creative officer Ted Sarandos disclosed that 26.4 million accounts watched its Martin Scorsese film The Irishman during its first seven days on the streaming service.

Sarandos, speaking at the UBS media conference Tuesday, said he expects that the gangster saga will be seen by 40 million accounts within its first 28 days.

Nielsen estimated that The Irishman had 17 million viewers in its first five days.

Sarandos noted that Netflix counts viewing differently than Nielsen. Even though The Irishman is more than 3 hours long, Netflix stuck to its system of counting only accounts that streamed 70% of the film.

But he added that people don’t watch movies alone, so those 26 million accounts could represent more people viewing.

Sarandos joked that he was getting a lot of credit for taking a big risk on The Irishman, but “betting on a Martin Scorsese mob movie with Robert DeNiro and Joe Pesci doesn’t seem like a large bet to me.”

He added that unlike a traditional film, Netflix’s monetization model is different and doesn’t have to depend on a big opening weekend to have a big impact on Netflix’s bottom line.

Martin Scorsese’s latest gangster film, The Irishman, was watched by 17.1 million unique viewers in the U.S. during its first five days on Netflix, according to figures released by Nielsen.

The performance ranks behind Sandra Bullock horror film Bird Box, which was seen by 26 million U.S. viewers over its first seven days when it debuted on the No. 1 U.S. streaming platform almost a year ago.

For its part, however, The Irishman arrived with a cumbersome runtime of three hours and 29 minutes. The film, which debuted on Netflix Nov. 27, also had a previous limited theatrical run.

So the question remains, is 17.1 million U.S. viewers in five days a good performance for a Scorsese movie that stars Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, and scored a 97% “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes?

It’s still difficult to say, given the lack of apples-to-apples comparisons, as well as a diffuse Netflix business model that monetizes shows based on their ability to maintain and build a subscriber base across the globe.

But a year after Nielsen began delivering some insight into Netflix viewership, we are able to draw some conclusions.

On its first day, Nov. 27, The Irishman was seen by 751,000 U.S. viewers, or about 18% of the total Netflix audience. This matched Bird Box (also 18%) and exceeded Vince Gilligan’s latest Breaking Bad installment, El Camino, which captured 11% of the Netflix audience when it debuted back in October.

One thing’s for sure, The Irishman—which stars DeNiro as mob man Frank Sheeran and Pesci as union boss Jimmy Hoffa—skewed older and male. About 15% of the audience was men 50-64. 

Martin Scorsese’s latest gangster film, The Irishman, was watched by 17.1 million unique viewers in the U.S. during its first five days on Netflix, according to figures released by Nielsen.

The performance ranks behind Sandra Bullock horror film Bird Box, which was seen by 26 million U.S. viewers over its first seven days when it debuted on the No. 1 U.S. streaming platform almost a year ago. 

For its part, however, The Irishman arrived with a cumbersome runtime of three hours and 29 minutes. The film, which debuted on Netflix Nov. 27, also had a previous limited theatrical run. 

So the question remains, is 17.1 million U.S. viewers in five days a good performance for a Scorsese movie that stars Robert DeNiro, Al Pacino and Joe Pesci, and scored a 97% “fresh” rating on Rotten Tomatoes?

It’s still difficult to say, given the lack of apples-to-apples comparisons, as well as a diffuse Netflix business model that monetizes shows based on their ability to maintain and build a subscriber base across the globe. 

But a year after Nielsen began delivering some insight into Netflix viewership, we are able to draw some conclusions.

On its first day, Nov. 27, The Irishman was seen by 751,000 U.S. viewers, or about 18% of the total Netflix audience. This matched Bird Box (also 18%) and exceeded Vince Gilligan’s latest Breaking Bad installment, El Camino, which captured 11% of the Netflix audience when it debuted back in October. 

One thing’s for sure, The Irishman—which stars DeNiro as mob man Frank Sheeran and Pesci as union boss Jimmy Hoffa—skewed older and male. About 15% of the audience was men 50-64.