Arris, like many suppliers, has hit a rough patch amid M&A uncertainty, spending slowdowns and the impact of a strong U.S. dollar, but a top sector analyst is still bullish about Arris’s future.

Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold maintained a “Strong Buy” rating on Arris  in research note issued the day after Arris posted a relatively in-line Q3 but a softer Q4 outlook.  But he also altered the target price on the stock from $41 to $38.

While the lowered outlook “will likely pressure the stock” (Arris shared dropped about 10% yesterday in after-hours trading)  but “[w]e  think the possibility that this is the ‘last cut’ could provide support for the shares.”

Leopold said he anticipated a slowdown from AT&T, but didn’t fully “appreciate the strain on international carriers' budgets.”

“We expect the Pace deal to be materially accretive, and with the fundamental demand from cable operators unchanged, we remain buyers of the shares,” he wrote.

On that note, AT&T’s decision to evolve its video platform around DirecTV’s Genie system could still work in Arris’s favor, as Pace is a primary box supplier to DirecTV, he said, but acknowledged that the timing of that transition remains uncertain.

Arris shares were down $1.56 (5.25%) to $28.18 in Thursday morning trading.