The ongoing retransmission consent battle between Dish Network and Nexstar Media Group continued Friday, with the station group claiming that Dish has declined reasonable offers to settle the dispute.

Dish fired the first shot in the dispute on Thanksgiving Day, claiming that Nexstar is threatening to darken its 164 stations across the country to Dish subscribers if it is not paid what the satellite service provider claims are unprecedented rate increases.

“Nexstar is intentionally turning its back on its public interest obligation and instead demanding consumers pay significantly more for the channels they could receive for free over-the-air,” Dish TV group president Brian Neylon said in a press release. 

Nexstar said in its own press statement that its stations will go dark to Dish customers at 7 p.m. local time on Dec. 2 if a retransmission consent deal is not reached. Nexstar added that talks have been ongoing since July, and that Dish has rejected reasonable offers from the broadcaster at rates the distributor’s peers have agreed to in the past. 

“Since July, Nexstar has been negotiating tirelessly and in good faith in an attempt to reach a mutually agreeable multi-year contract with Dish, offering Dish the same fair market rates it offered to other large distribution partners with whom it completed successful negotiations in 2019 and 2020,” Nexstar said in the release. The satellite TV company, Nexstar claims,  has instead countered those offers by proposing rates that go “significantly backward” and by threatening to drop Nexstar’s cable channel, WGN America. 

Nexstar also pointed out Dish’s past retrans and carriage scuffles, adding that in 2020 alone, the company has dropped network or local community programming from The E.W. Scripps Co., Cox Media Group, Mission Broadcasting, and the NFL Network. In contrast, Nexstar pointed to its recent carriage deals, adding that in October alone it had reached agreements with nearly 200 distribution partners and that since purchasing Tribune Media in September 2019, it has completed agreements with distributors covering more than half of its U.S. footprint.

“If the companies are unable to reach an agreement, Dish subscribers in 115 Nexstar markets from Los Angeles to Charlotte will lose access to thousands of hours of vitally important local news, just as the country prepares for an explosion in new coronavirus cases and a new President prepares to take office,” Nexstar said in the release. “Dish subscribers will also lose the ability to access the NFL and college football games scheduled for the weekend of December 5-6, and all of the entertainment programming provided by Nexstar’s network partners, CBS, FOX, NBC, ABC, The CW and MyNet."

Nexstar said that it still hopes to hammer out a deal in time. But if that fails, it intends to “actively educate” customers in the affected markets -- mainly by urging them to drop Dish and signing on with alternative distributors that carry the networks. 

Dish Network said its customers could lose access to as many as 164 Nexstar Media Group stations in 42 states across the country if it cannot hammer out a retransmission consent agreement with the broadcaster by Dec. 2.

Nexstar is the  largest local broadcast station group in the country and has properties in all the major cities, including Los Angeles (KTLA), Chicago (WGN) and Dallas (KDAF), as well as smaller markets that have been Dish’s stronghold over the past several years. 

In a press release, Dish TV group president Brian Neylon said the broadcaster is demanding exorbitant rate increases for its broadcast stations as well as forcing the satellite company to carry its cable channel WGN America. 

“This shocking increase is the highest we’ve ever seen,” Neylon said in a press release. “Nexstar is intentionally turning its back on its public interest obligation and instead demanding consumers pay significantly more for the channels they could receive for free over-the-air.”

On its station websites, Nexstar confirmed that Dish customers could lose access to their programming. But they stressed that their offer is fair and that the ball was in the satellite giant’s court.

“Despite our tireless efforts, Dish has refused our fair offer and is making negotiations very difficult,” Nexstar said on its station sites. “You might have seen them do this before. They will tell you it’s for your benefit, but don’t believe it. Our offer is fair. And now they hold you the subscriber hostage. It’s not right.”

Nexstar is no stranger to retrans battles. Last year about 120 of its stations went dark to AT&T DirecTV and U-verse customers. That impasse lasted nearly two months.

Dish has been more than willing to ride out long blackout periods to get favorable rates. Last year Spanish-language broadcaster Univision was dark to Dish customers for nine months weeks before a deal was reached. The satellite giant dropped premium channel HBO more than a year ago, and still hasn’t reached a deal. 

Neither side is commenting, but a reading of the immediate tea leaves suggests that AT&T and Sinclair Broadcast Group may be heading toward a resolution that will give the broadcaster a retras deal without depriving DirecTV, AT&T TV Now and U-verse customers of its programming.

Sinclair began warning AT&T subscribers of the possibility of a blackout last week, and set a deadline of 5 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday (Sept. 27) to reach a deal. That deadline passed without a deal but more importantly AT&T customers didn’t lose access to Sinclair content while the negotiations moved on.

Related: Hill Presses AT&T, Sinclair to do Retrans Deal 

As of 10:30 p.m. on Saturday (Sept. 28), talks were still ongoing. But Sinclair removed messages warning of a blackout on the websites of its stations, and a website specifically set up for retrans spats -- www.keepmycontent.com -- merely stated: “Thank you for being a loyal Sinclair viewer. We continue to work with AT&T to maintain access to our programming.”

While a blackout could still happen, those were good signs that a deal could be reached soon.

Sinclair said previously that 136 stations in 86 markets, as well as The Tennis Channel, could go dark to DirecTV, AT&T TV Now and U-verse customers across the country. Pulling signals has been an effective tactic for broadcasters in past retrans negotiations, but AT&T has taken a hardline in recent talks.

Chances are that extensions will continue to be granted as talks move on. That would be ideal for AT&T’s customers, who would be able to watch programming -- especially the NFL on Sunday -- while the companies try to work out their differences. 

In the never-ending battles between distributors and programmers, Dish Network dodged a bullet when it avoided prolonging what it called the largest broadcast blackout in history by signing a last-minute deal with Sinclair Broadcast Group.

But the satellite giant may be in the crosshairs of another programming scuffle, this time with troubled kids’ and teens programmer Viacom.

Dish and Sinclair reached their agreement on Aug. 26, a day after the broadcaster darkened 129 stations in 79 markets across the country and mere hours after Federal Communications Commission chairman Tom Wheeler called for an emergency meeting to work out a solution. At that meeting, Wheeler gave the parties a midnight deadline to hammer out a deal. The agreement in principle was reached later that same day.

While FCC intervention in retrans spats is nothing new — former chairman Julius Genachowski did it on several occasions during his tenure — Wheeler made no bones about his desire to get his agency deep into the mix when it comes to service disruptions.

In a statement, Wheeler said the commission would not “stand idly by while millions of consumers in 79 markets across the country are being denied access to local programming.”

“The commission will always act within the scope of its authority if it emerges that improper conduct is preventing a commercial resolution of the dispute,” Wheeler added.

While the uproar has centered on retransmission-consent blackouts, service disruptions of all kinds are beginning to attract attention as consumers, distributors and content providers jockey for position. And the next biggest test could be Dish’s upcoming renewal of Viacom’s 14 networks.

Dish and Viacom still have plenty of time to reach a deal. While neither side has said when their carriage agreement expires, Deutsche Bank media analyst Bryan Kraft estimated the two parties could reach an agreement in spring 2016. That’s at least six months away, but early-stage talks have taken place already, a common practice in major deals like this.

So far, neither side has taken part in the usual posturing that typically precedes such negotiations. Dish chairman and CEO Charlie Ergen has said publicly that the satellite giant has had cordial negotiations with Viacom in the past, while hinting that networks that have ratings troubles and are available over different platforms sometimes lose value.

Viacom CEO Philippe Dauman also hasn’t mentioned Dish by name, but said earlier in the month — on an earnings conference call after it had reached deals with Mediacom Communications and Charter Communications — that Viacom looks “forward to renewing other affiliate agreements going forward.” Later he added that Viacom still intends to deliver high single-digit percentage affiliate fee increases for the year.

And though Viacom is still believed to be at a disadvantage in negotiations with Dish and other carriers, it appears the momentum that seemed to be squarely in Dish’s camp just a few months ago is eroding. That could be significant, especially since several analysts have called the Dish renewal “critical” for Viacom. If Dish decides to drop Viacom’s networks, other large distributors could also decide to take the plunge, which would be a devastating loss for the programmer.

But shedding the networks, which include such iconic brands as MTV, Nickelodeon, Comedy Central and Spike, could result in subscriber losses for the satellite giant as well. And at this stage, Dish may not be so keen on losing more customers.

Dish officially lost a total of 81,000 net subscribers in the second quarter, about twice the 44,000 it lost in the same period in 2014. But those results are a bit skewed because they also included subscribers to Dish’s over-the-top service, Sling TV. Factor out the estimated 106,000 subscribers Sling TV probably gained in the quarter, and the losses at the satellite-TV unit could have reached 187,000, a level MoffettNathanson principal and senior analyst Craig Moffett characterized as “horrific.”

Given the declines and other setbacks in August, like the FCC’s decision to disallow $3.3 billion in discounts Dish received from its participation with so-called “designated entities” in the recent AWS-3 spectrum auction and DirecTV’s recently completed merger with AT&T — which gives Dish’s largest competitor a major broadband product — the satellite giant may want to take a lower profile in negotiations.

“Dish does seem to have less leverage than the cable/telco players as they don’t have a high-margin data pipe to fall back on, but the rating/programming weakness at Viacom and the fact they don’t control a national [distribution] network seems to put Viacom in a relatively tough position,” Pivotal Research CEO and senior media & communications analyst Jeff Wlodarczak said. “In the end, the signs point to a deal that neither player is probably too happy about.”

Wlodarczak added that the threat of Dish dropping the channels — and the domino effect it could have on other deals — could force Viacom to be more amenable to a compromise on rates. Other analysts have estimated that if Dish dropped the networks, other distributors would follow.

Others have dropped the Viacom channels, with mixed success. Cable One, the Phoenix-based smallmarket cable operator, started the ball rolling more than a year ago, and its video-subscriber rolls have fallen by about 20%. Cable One has made a conscious effort to de-emphasize video in favor of broadband — it currently has 487,401 residential broadband subscribers and 385,136 residential video customers. But the loss of those video customers has cut into the bottom line. In the second quarter, Cable One saw revenue fall 1.2% to $202.7 million and adjusted cash flow dip 2.4% to $77.8 million.

Suddenlink Communications, another midsized operator, dropped Viacom’s channels in September 2014 and has shed about 5.8% of its basic-video subscribers in the past 12 months. It lost about 29,000 video customers in the second quarter, about 10,000 more than in the prior year, but explained the losses by claiming that seasonality and a late-quarter rate increase skewed results. Its financial metrics were strong, with revenue up 4.7% and cash flow growth of 8.2% before one-time items.

Said Deutsche Bank’s Kraft, “A look at Suddenlink’s and Cable One’s subscriber trends since they dropped Viacom suggests that any MVPD that is committed to the video business needs to think twice about dropping Viacom.”