In this charged presidential election cycle, digital ad sellers are seeing more demand for political advertising and are leaning in to make more inventory available to candidates.

According to a study by IAB, 89% of ad sellers, including publishers, platforms and ad tech, that offer political ads increased their political inventory, while 86% of them said they’ve experience in increase in demand.

Prices for political ads are, up according to 84% of the sellers.

The political ad market has changed since President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and VP Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee.

Since Harris entered the race, 91% of ad sellers have seen an increase in political ad demand at the national level and 75% of sellers said they saw increased demand at the local level. 

Nearly all sellers have seen an increase in political advertisers that want to use customer audience segments when buying ads.

IAB said political advertisers were looking to segment audiences by political affiliation, particular interests, geography, race, ethnicity and age.

IAB said that 83% of the ad sellers said they had policies in place to detect misinformation and  78% attempted to prevent ads featuring misinformation.

Effectv, Comcast Advertising’s sales unit, said it has added capabilities aimed at helping political advertisers reach voters with multiscreen campaigns.

“With it being a critical election year, we want to make sure that advertisers have the most effective tools and solutions at hand to reach voters and that they are able to more easily run successful end-to-end multiscreen campaigns in one place,” Effectv VP of political sales Chris Vail said. “These new capabilities, coupled with the unique audience data we offer, which allows advertisers to reach specific voters across screens, platforms, and devices, on a regional and local level, will be the key to reaching voters with relevant and personalized ad experiences ahead of November 5.”

The additional capabilities include additional audience segments based on party affiliations and donor activities; net campaigns; building tools to plan, activate and measure campaigns; and enhanced campaign reporting and insights that allow streaming buyers to assess delivery on a geographical basis to the ZIP code level.

Effectv is also working with Dynata to provide insights into how viewers are responding to ads and whether they’re building awareness, recall and intent.

Political advertisers with Effectv can use addressable TV advertising as part of a full-funnel marketing solution to discover, reach, engage and connect with new and existing voters. 

The company says one in three households may be missed without an addressable advertising component in a campaign.

EffecTV TV recently expanded its Audience Addressable product, which uses Comcast data to deliver campaign’s down to the household level across a variety of screens and platforms.

With a big election coming up, LG Ad Solutions has released a study showing that Democrat, Republican and independent connected-TV users all prefer streaming compared to cable, satellite and broadcast.

LG hired Keith Norman last year to head political ad sales. The study will be used to help convince candidates to shift more money from traditional TV to streaming.

“We wanted to understand the affinity for CTV regardless of political affiliation and location across the country and found voters are streaming and are open to receiving political advertising,” said Norman, VP of sales, political practice, at LG Ad Solutions.

“This research underscores a seismic shift towards streaming across all political affiliations and geographic regions in the U.S.,“ Norman said. “Political marketers must adapt their outreach strategies accordingly, prioritizing CTV and streaming to ensure comprehensive voter engagement.”

Money is already moving. Citing a forecast from AdImpact, LG Ad Solutions said political-ad spending on connected TV is expected to jump 24% to $1.34 billion from last year’s midterm elections. 

LG’s survey found that independent voters particularly like streaming, with 70% saying they preferred streaming to cable, satellite or broadcast.

Among Democrats, 63% said they preferred streaming, while 57% of Republicans voted for streaming.

Other findings include:

• Over the past 12 months, viewers across political parties have begun watching less linear TV, with Democrats watching 27% less, Republicans watching 35% less and Independents watching 39% less.
• Regardless of political affiliation, CTV users in the U.S. prefer free, ad-supported streaming television (FAST), with 69% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans and 66% of Independent affiliated viewers stating they prefer FAST to ad-free subscription streaming.
• 93% of viewers across parties indicated that they multitask across devices while streaming, creating extended opportunities to engage on mobile and desktop.

Perhaps most importantly, CTV viewers expect streaming ads to be relevant, increasing the likelihood of engagement.

LG said the findings support that there are advantages to dong business with a smart TV maker.

“Our direct-to-glass strategy allows political marketers to leverage our proprietary advanced ACR (Automatic Content Recognition) data for precise targeting while maintaining reach and frequency control, which hasn’t been possible before,” said Norman.

CTV also enables advertisers to target streaming-only voters, avoid the high costs of commercial time on broadcast and focus on ZIP codes rather than designated market areas (DMAs). 

LG Ad Solutions said it surveyed 973 U.S. CTV users who are affiliated with political parties via an online panel in February and March.

AdImpact said it has increased its forecast for political ad spending in 2024 to $10.7 billion, from an earlier estimate of $10.2 billion.

For broadcast, total spending is expected to be $5.4 billion, up from the original forecast of $5.1 billion

For cable, the total is expected to rise to $1.93 billion from $1.9 billion.

For connected TV, the forecast rises to $1.51 billion from $1.35 billion.

Also Read: 48 Million Watched CNN’s Biden-Trump Debate

Through June 27, year-to-date political ad spending in the 2024 election cycle is outpacing the 2020 election cycle, at $3.05 billion compared to $2.54 billion, AdImpact said.

“This election cycle is on track to be the most expensive on record, projected to have 19% growth over the 2019-20 cycle,” AdImpact said.

Through June 30, AdImpact said it had detected more than 7,400 unique political TV ads, 700 more than 2022 over the same period.

In terms of races, AdImpact projects that $2.68 billion will be spent on the presidential elections, with another $2.15 billion spent on U.S. Senate races, $1.79 billion for candidates running for the House of Representatives and $469 million for gubernatorial races.

Samba TV said it has launched new technology it says gives political advertisers next-day precision ad targeting to reach voters in regional, state and national elections.

Yahoo and TelevisaUnivision have already signed up for the new capability.

“Hispanics are one of the biggest and most influential voter groups in the U.S.,” said TelevisaUnivision senior VP of product management Brian Lin. “As political advertisers look to further engage with our audience, we look forward to partnering with Samba TV to enable a more effective way to inform Spanish-speaking voters across the country.”

Samba TV says  advertisers can build customized political ad exposure segments and launch their targeted campaign the next day, ensuring political advertisers are targeting the right voters efficiently and effectively.

“In one of the most consequential elections in history, coupled with a deeply fragmented media landscape, marketers are facing one of the most challenging political seasons to reach voters,” said Samba TV Co-founder and CEO Ashwin Navin.

“What worked in the past no longer applies. The strategy of relentlessly hitting the same audience with political ads on traditional TV is outdated. In today's landscape, candidates must embrace a holistic approach that integrates traditional TV with real-time targeting across streaming and digital platforms to reach voters who are consuming media in entirely new ways,” Navin said. “This tactic is vital for political advertisers seeking a competitive advantage in a pivotal election where the stakes are high for control of the White House, Congress, and regional seats of power."

Candidates in local races, particularly people running for congressional seats, have been big buyers of political commercials streaming on connected TV, according to numbers from Madhive.

Madhive, an ad-tech company that provides the streaming infrastructure that powers CTV advertising and reach extension for local broadcast stations owned by Fox, E.W. Scripps and Hearst Television, said congressional races drove 76.8% of CTV political ad impressions.

Other local races — sheriffs, judges and so on — drove 16.6% of impressions.

Candidates for president generated just 5.7% of CTV political spending, while spending on statewide gubernatorial (and lieutenant governor) races accounted for 1%.

“If you talk to political buyers, they will tell you two things: TV advertising works to get out the vote and the smaller the population center, the harder it is to reach key voting blocs,” Madhive said in a blog post. “This is often because small markets have limited broadcast and TV inventory.”

Political spending this election season is expected to be record-breaking. Local broadcast is expected to take the bulk of political spending, but CTV could also see political advertising revenue growth because of its ability to target specific geographic areas or use political indicators to target ads.

“That is why Vizio, Roku and Hulu are pushing into local streaming,” Madhive said. “It’s also why networks are diversifying their broadcast buyers with streaming ’reach extension‘ — which enables buyers to find audiences in suburban areas via streaming across multiple services.”

Madhive said that the top congressional districts for CTV ad impressions were: 

• New York’s Congressional District 3
• Illinois's Congressional District 12
• Ohio's Congressional District 2
• Texas’s Congressional District 31
• New York's Congressional District 4
• Texas’s Congressional District 22
• Florida’s Congressional District 2

Viewers are twice as receptive to political advertising when they’re watching the media they use most, compared to other channels, a survey by ad-tech firm LoopMe found.

A survey found that television, social media, YouTube, streaming services and mobile games were the media channels used most by respondents. TV was named by just 21% of respondents, illustrating a shift in media consumption, political advertisers should note.

LoopMe said that among those media, only social media users were below average in their willingness to be convinced.

Most Americans (62%) said they were willing to consider opposing opinions in political ads. Social media and YouTube users were the least receptive, while web surfers and listeners to podcasts and radio were most receptive (75% and 73%, respectively).

Repetitive political advertising can backfire, with 37% of those surveyed  indicating that seeing the same political ad too many times can create negative sentiment. LoopMe’s data showed that high frequency was upwards of 3x as likely to result in a more negative opinion of a message, especially among older voters. 

“In this important election year, understanding the shifting patterns of media consumption is critical in order to properly allocate political advertising budgets for efficient reach across all demographics,” said Robin Porter, head of political at LoopMe. 

“Our new data shows that campaign effectiveness can be improved significantly by engaging with voters on the channels they use most,” Porter said. “Audiences that spend more time in digital environments shared that they are most receptive to political ads in digital platforms such as streaming and social media. The study also revealed that older respondents are more likely to supplement TV viewership with mobile gaming with receptivity in both.” 

The survey polled 6,262 U.S. consumers between December 18 and December 27, 2023, on their mobile devices using PurchaseLoop Audiences, LoopMe’s AI-based polling technology.

Ad-tech company LoopMe said it is starting a new political ad sales division and hired former Comcast exec Robin Porter as its head.

Political advertising is forecast to top $10 billion during the 2024 presidential election year and connected TV is expected to increase its share of campaign spending. 

LoopMe plans to offer candidates the ability to measure real-time voter sentiment and deliver hyper-targeted audience segments.

“We are fortunate to have Robin’s leadership as we tailor our proven AI technology across audiences, measurement and lift to the political market, in this pivotal 2024 election year,” said Lisa Coffey, global chief revenue officer at LoopMe. 

“Political advertisers deserve to be able to identify voter sentiment and audiences in real-time so that political candidates can reach and influence voters on key issues. This ability to find and message the right audience is what LoopMe offers through its proven AI, which has been driving 3-5x the results of industry benchmarks,” Coffey said.

Porter spent nine years at Comcast, eventually serving as director, political and large agency ad sales development.

LoopMe’s proven and patented AI technology delivers the edge that political campaigns will need in 2024,” said Porter. “With our solutions, delivery outcomes can now move beyond simple media metrics and begin to measure a campaign’s impact in real time. LoopMe’s proprietary survey technology is integrated into each campaign, measuring voter sentiment such as candidate perception lift or increase in awareness for advocacy campaigns. The AI is constantly optimizing to drive efficiencies and greater impact for winning campaigns. We have already seen a huge response simply around the ease of execution. Automation for buyers is critical as the political pace is fast and furious.”

A study from Samba TV found that younger voters are less likely to see political commercials and in order to reach them, candidates should take more of a multiscreen approach to campaigning.

The study, based on Samba TV data and a survey by HarrisX, found that just 46% of Generation Z and millennials reported that they’ve seen “a lot” or “some” political ads over the last three months.

That compares to more than 50% of people over the age of 50 saying they’ve seen multiple political ads.

Since viewers said that commercials for President Joe Biden and Donald Trump tend to be misleading, nearly half said seeing repetitive political ads would likely worsen their perception of a candidate.

At the same time, 54% of millennial voters said they get their news through streaming platforms, compared to 41% overall.

“We are anticipating a record-breaking $10 billion in political spend for the 2024 election after the biggest midterm spend in 2022 and a massive $8.5 billion spend in the 2020 election cycle,” Samba TV co-founder and CEO Ashwin Navin said. “Candidates, campaign managers, PACs and other stakeholders will have to be more measured in the way they use their budgets across traditional linear advertising as well as streaming TV, social and digital channels to effectively appeal to voters who are more fragmented than ever in their viewing behaviors.”

The study also found that trust in media among Americans has eroded, with undecided and dissatisfied voters even more dubious about traditional news outlets. That makes alternative sources a good place to reach swing voters, Samba TV said.

Voters said they don’t trust social media to provide reliable coverage of current events, with just 13% saying they trust social media for reliable coverage. 

While 54% of voters think social media companies should allow political ads on their platforms, only 44% of undecided or dissatisfied voters agree.

“Despite the dwindling trust in traditional media, it remains a vital platform for reaching voters,” Navin said. “However, the 2024 election will demand that campaigns incorporate rigorous targeting and measurement strategies to prevent oversaturation. Interestingly, our data shows that 41% of undecided or dissatisfied voters claimed their perception of a candidate or issue would likely worsen upon seeing an ad repeated too frequently within a month.”

The study is Samba TV’s first-party automatic content recognition data, along with two surveys of U.S. adults with HarrisX. The first survey was conducted online within the United States from August 22-30 among 2,507 adults by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 2 percentage points. 

The second survey was conducted online from November 7-8 among 1,004 U.S. registered voters by HarrisX. The sampling margin of error of this poll is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 

With an election year around the corner, Katz Media is expanding its political sales division and promoting its leaders.

Trevor Heaton was named president of political strategy for Katz Television Group. Heaton had been senior VP of political sales. He continues to report to Craig Broitman, chief operating officer of Katz Television Group.

Jared Salles was elevated to senior VP of political sales. He was VP of political sales for eight years.

Brad Phillips was named VP, general sales manager. Phillips has been sales manager since 2015.

“Katz is committed to providing advertisers with hyper-focused expertise in the political category,” Katz Media Group CEO Mark Gray said. “For over three decades, Katz has been a leader in the political arena with its pulse on the ever-changing market. Our team strategizes with political agencies and campaigns to leverage the power of local broadcast and digital media to connect with voters at significant scale.  No other company is better positioned to provide simultaneous results across several media platforms for the political advertising community.”

The Katz political team managed more than $2.5 billion in political advertising during the combined 2020 and 2022 election cycles. 

“I am excited to lead our dynamic team into the 2024 political cycle,” Heaton said. “In their new roles, Jared and Brad will help manage high-level relationships with campaigns and political organizations. Our team’s decades of experience, relationships, and sales strategy will help political advertisers navigate the complex political advertising landscape and leverage Katz’s massive reach to connect with key voters nationwide.”

Linear television, and local broadcasters in particular, have long reaped the rewards of election-year spending. This is particularly true in years with presidential elections, but this year’s midterms, consequential as they are in our very divided country, have seen an unprecedented level of spending.

Kantar now estimates that $9 billion dollars will be spent on political advertising this year, with $6.2 billion or around 9% of the total estimated 2022 TV ad spend of $65.34 billion going to broadcast and cable.

What’s most notable, however, is not the overall political ad spend, but rather, the amount that Kantar estimates is going to streaming: $1.4 billion, which is just under 7% of the estimated $21.2 billion the IAB expects will be spent on streaming this year.

Clearly there is room for growth.

Streaming and Politics Make Good Bedfellows

The most obvious advantage of streaming is the ability to target specific viewers based on location. This is particularly useful for candidates in large markets as it results in massive cost savings. 

To wit, rather than having to buy spots against the entire Los Angeles TV market, as she would on linear, a Los Angeles-area Congressional candidate can use streaming to target voters in her district, right down to the street they live on, paying only for those voters who actually see her ads. Yes, there will be a higher CPM than traditional linear, but the overall cost of the buy is likely to be considerably less.

The next big advantage of streaming for political campaigns is all of the data that is available. In addition to knowing exactly how many people saw an ad and whether they watched the ad to completion, advertisers can learn whether voters visited a campaign website after seeing an ad and what other actions (email signups, donations) they might have taken as a result, and then alter their creative based on those results.

But the most interesting use of data comes from targeting.

A household that watches Sean Hannity and Fox News on a regular basis is likely a household that will be receptive to messages from GOP candidates and SuperPACs. With streaming, that household can be easily targeted with political ads on whatever shows they are watching, not just news shows, which can help the ads stand out more. 

This is not the case for linear, where ads need to run on programs where there is an assumption that voters are either aligned with the network’s political POV or actively engaged with the news. That generally means a lot of clutter during election season, with political ad after political ad running in each ad bloc -- including many from candidates who may be in the same metro area but are not in the viewer’s Congressional or state legislative district.

This is yet another benefit to streaming -- voters are often confused as to which of the many candidates whose ads they see on linear are actually running in their district. When they go to actually vote, they are often surprised to find that the candidate they had been intending to vote for is actually not on the ballot and are not able to make a well-informed decision.

Context matters.

There is one caveat about targeting voters on streaming though and that is the need to be sensitive to context. Running an ad about guns or drug addiction during a family oriented program might offend more viewers than it wins over -- not so much in that they disagree with the message, but that they find the subject matter inappropriate for shows targeted towards young children. 

So while it is great to be able to run ads in uncluttered environments, it’s also important to ensure that those uncluttered environments are contextually relevant for the subject matter of the ads.

Where the Money's Going

Spending has ramped up this fall -- the aforementioned $9 billion figure from Kantar was recently revised upwards from the $8.6 billion they had estimated this spring. 

Madhive, one of the leading tech companies in the TV advertising space has been tracking political ad spend on streaming this fall and has seen some surprising results from their analysis of bid stream data spanning hundreds of millions of political impressions across the US  that they have cross-referenced with their proprietary device graph consisting of 100+ million households across all US metro areas.

Ad spend is up: Average daily political ad impressions on streaming are up a whopping 96% in October vs. September. This is not all that surprising in that political spending goes up in the period after Labor Day as Election Day looms, but the massive jump from September to October is notable and seems to be proof that streaming is catching on with political campaigns.

California is hot: The biggest boost in streaming ad spend has been in California, where Madhive is seeing a 32% increase in impressions week-over-week from October 3rd to October 10th. Given that California contains three of the most expensive TV markets in the U.S. -- Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Diego --candidates and PACs are wise to turn to streaming as a more cost effective way to reach voters in those markets.

Governor’s races are where the money is: While media attention has been focused on House and Senate races, ad dollars have been focused on governor’s races. According to Madhive, 37% of political ad impressions are in gubernatorial races, 18 percent are in House races, 17% are in state legislative races and just 8 % are in Senate races. Given that these are national totals, it makes sense that House races are garnering more impressions -- all 435 seats are up for grabs, while only 34 out of 100 Senate seats are in play this year.

Wisconsin is a battleground: Of the five Congressional districts with the most overall political ad impressions, three are in Wisconsin. While the House races in those districts (two in Milwaukee, one in Green Bay) are not particularly competitive, the state’s Senate, Governor and State Supreme Court races are very much up for grabs and both parties see potential. Thus they are spending heavily to reach voters in the more densely populated areas of the state.

Bottom Line: 2022 is really a test run for political campaigns to understand how they can make extensive use of streaming to reach a more targeted audience. As more and more viewers are expected to shift to streaming over the next two years, and as big SVOD services like Netflix and Disney roll out ad-supported tiers, we can expect to see a significantly higher percentage of political ad dollars spent on streaming in 2024, which is also a presidential election year.

In recent years, we’ve seen some pretty cool marketing tactics from political campaigns, including one candidate who enlisted the meme community and another’s foray into the world of video games. And while these past activations definitely exhibited a “cool” factor, this year’s 2022 midterm election marketing campaigns are banking on CTV for the “conversion” factor.

One of the obvious benefits of streaming is that it's a digital version of traditional linear media -- same content, same screen size, but with the ability to apply the benefits of programmatic ad buying. In simple terms, this means advertisers can do more than just target the “standard adults 25 to 54” they are accustomed to on linear, and leverage expanded segments including behavior, interests, and geography.

That’s why this year’s 2022 midterm elections are expected to exceed $8 billion in political ad spend, with an estimated 15% of that going to CTV, as candidates leverage streaming’s superior targeting abilities to connect with potential voters on a local level. Not to mention, CTV is redefining what “local” really means.

Getting Granular with Geography

There are 210 designated market areas (DMAs) in the U.S. and more than 41,000 zip codes within, which traditional linear TV allows advertisers to target viewers by. For political advertisers, however, targeting by zip codes doesn't quite cut it. When you break it down, congressional and legislative districts rarely line up with zip code maps, which sometimes forces candidates to buy an entire city or metro area in order to reach all the voters they want. This can result in a huge waste of money. 

Streaming, on the other hand, provides the ability to go beyond zip codes and target congressional and legislative districts from a geo perspective. This digital style targeting on television screens is something political campaigns were never able to access at scale before. And when you pair this with behavior and interest targeting, all of a sudden a political candidate can target “Democratic-leaning swing voters, that care about climate change, and live in a specific congressional district.”

This scenario recently played out in the primary for New York’s 19th Congressional District, which encompasses all or part of 11 different counties, spanning three different DMAs: New York City, Albany, and Utica. Instead of putting all their money into linear -- where they would have had to spend money across all three DMAs including the very expensive New York market -- campaigns utilized streaming to limit their buys to households within the district, making those buys far more cost-effective.

Understanding the Outcomes

Another benefit of streaming being digitally delivered is that it allows candidates to transcend the probabilistic feed they’re accustomed to on linear and get down to deterministic data. Sure, linear provides a confirmation that your spot ran on this channel at this time, but streaming provides a wealth of information that is tied to a specific household based on data from IP addresses, device IDs, and geolocation. 

All those data signals coming in can be leveraged towards performance-based attribution and measurement. So candidates can see which people were exposed to what ad, and if they went to the website, joined the email list, downloaded an app, donated to the campaign, or actually walked into a physical location to vote. This is a huge step up from linear where at most candidates can determine that their ad ran, and then probabilistically attribute activity to it during a window of time. 

In recent years, we’ve seen some innovative attempts to tap into culture, but this year candidates are focused on optimizing messaging, speaking to local voters and driving conversions. And at a time when the digital is struggling to adjust to privacy regulations, iOS changes, and the sunsetting of the cookie, CTV is offering a privacy-compliant, one-stop-shop platform for candidates to drive conversions. ■

Viewers might complain about the barrage of political commercials on the way as Election Day approaches, but they seem to pay attention to them.

A new study from TVision found that when political ads appear, viewers stay in the room 22% longer than when other types of ad appear.

TVision also said viewers' eyes stay on political ads 15% longer than ads for other products or services.

Overall, in terms of attention, political ads get a 38.7% score, while all other ads get a 37.4% score.

That would seem to be good news for candidates and PACs that are expected to spend $2.1 billion on linear TV and $300 million on CTV advertising.

Also: Scripps Leads New Station Group Aiming To Bring Political Ads to CTV

Another interesting finding is that folks who identify themselves as independents pay the most attention to political ads compared to other ads. 

Independents pay the most attention to the political ads they see on CNN at 42.1%. Independents’ attention registers 39.2% on both Fox News and MSNBC. 

Republicans pay the most attention to political ads on Fox News. Democrats pay the most attention to political ads on MSNBC, the study found.

On CTV,  the youngest voting-age viewers pay considerably more attention to political ads than other ads. Among 18 to 24 year olds attention increases 12% for political ads, the biggest jump for any demo other than those 55 and up. 

TVision reviewed viewer engagement with TV advertising on Linear and CTV for people 18 years of age and up between January 1 and August 29, 2022. TVision’s panel includes approximately 13,000 viewers across the United States and they self-report political affiliation. ■

Commercials in February’s Super Bowl are pacing ahead of schedule and attracting record pricing, according to Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch.

Last year, NBC Sports sold 30-second commercial for as much as $6.5 million.

Speaking on Fox’s fourth-quarter earnings call Wednesday, Murdoch said that the despite the “chatter around advertising headwinds … we are currently not seeing an adverse advertising impact on our business.”

During the upfront market, advertising commitments for the 2022-23 broadcast year were up 15% from last year’s upfront, Murdoch said, with price increases on a cost-per-thousand viewer (CPM) basis in the high single to the low-double-digit range.

Fox increased the amount of inventory it sold in the upfront from the traditional 70% range to the low to mid 80% level, Murdoch said, in order to gain more certainty.

He said the upfront totals exclude the Super Bowl, but noted that Fox sold more advertising for its Sunday NFL games this year than it did last year for its Sunday and Thursday Night Football games combined.

Murdoch said pricing was particularly strong for cable, as sellout levels increased for Fox Entertainment and more incremental dollars went into the Tubi streaming service.

At Fox’s local stations, base advertising sales were stable, Murdoch said, with the company seeing a return to growth in the auto category.

“This provides a good foundation for the upcoming political cycle,” Murdoch said. “In the fourth fiscal quarter, political ad sales were three times larger than during the last presidential election in 2020 — a record year for political advertising.”

He said this year’s midterm elections are “certain” to surpass the 2020 political revenue generated by the Fox stations.

“We are seeing an unprecedented wave of political spending, which accelerates as we head toward November,” he said.  ■

E.W. Scripps swung to a profit in the second quarter as its stations benefited from political advertising while its national networks unit had flat revenue and lower profits.

Net income was $29.2 million, or 32 cents a share, compared to a loss of $6.9 million, or 9 cents a share, a year ago. Revenue rose 5.2% to $594 million.

Scripps’s local stations generated a profit of $80.7 million, up from $64.6 million a year ago. Revenue there rose 9.5% to $356 million. While core ad revenue dropped 2% to $158 million, political advertising was $24 million, compared to $3.2 million a year ago. Retransmission revenue rose 9.4% to $171 million.

The company said it is on track to deliver at least $270 million of local media political advertising revenue for the full year, outpacing its 2020 adjusted-combined presidential election year political revenue, after record-setting second quarter results.

“For the second quarter, Scripps met or exceeded overall expectations. Foreshadowing the record performance we expect in the back half of the year, political advertising during the first two quarters nearly equaled the level of revenue we saw for the same period of the presidential election year 2020, when Michael Bloomberg spent early and heavily in our markets to promote his presidential campaign,” said Adam Symson, Scripps president and CEO. 

“While Scripps Networks revenue was short of guidance – a reflection of the weakness in the national ad market – it  still equaled last year’s extraordinary performance and delivered results better than peers as well as a margin of more than 30%,” Symson said.

At Scripps Networks, segment profit was $73.3 million, down from $107 million a year ago.

Revenue at the national networks unit was flat at $239 million, with revenue from new networks Defy TV and TrueReal offset by weakness in the national advertising market, the company said.

“The Networks benefited from growth in connected TV revenue, with continued momentum expected in the back half of the year. By the end of the third quarter, most of our Scripps networks will be nearly fully distributed across connected TV platforms, and our previous CTV launches this year are garnering significant viewing, driving the  increases in CTV revenue. Our networks also are available on cable and satellite and to nearly every U.S. television household through over-the-air broadcast,” he said. Scripps national networks include Court TV, Newsy and ION brands.

Looking ahead to the third quarter, Scripps expects local media revenue to be up in the low to mid 20% range, while Scripps Networks revenue will continue to be flat. ■

After being embroiled in another political controversy, The Walt Disney Co. said its Hulu streaming service will accept commercials for candidates and issue advertisements.

Disney got blasted on social media after Democratic Party campaign organizations tried to buy ad time on Hulu and got turned down. The hashtag #BoycottHulu trended on Twitter on Tuesday after The Washington Post reported on the ads being refused by Hulu although they ran on Disney-owned ABC station WPVI Philadelphia and on Disney-owned ESPN. 

The new dustup followed Disney’s difficulties in Florida, where it flip-flopped on its opposition to the state’s so-called Don’t Say Gay laws, first angering employees and then becoming a target in culture war campaigning by Republicans including Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, where Walt Disney World is located.

In a statement, Disney said that it had taken a look at how it approaches political advertising. 

“After a thorough review of ad policies across its linear networks and streaming platforms over the last few months, Disney is now aligning Hulu’s political advertising policies to be consistent with the Company’s general entertainment and sports cable networks and ESPN Plus,” Disney said in a statement. “Hulu will now accept candidate and issue advertisements covering a wide spectrum of policy positions, but reserves the right to request edits or alternative creative, in alignment with industry standards.” ■

Ad intelligence provider AdImpact has selected Innovid to provide cross-platform measurement of political ads across linear TV and connected TV during what is expected to be a record-setting midterm election cycle.

“This is a crucial political cycle, and CTV will play an instrumental role in helping candidates and causes get their messages heard by the right people, at the right times and in the right places,” AdImpact CEO Kyle Roberts said. “With the TV video mix looking very different from years past, having accurate, real-time measurement is critical. With the TVSquared by Innovid platform, we have access to delivery and performance metrics from linear and CTV in a single, unified solution, giving us granular insights into who was reached, where, when and how often.”

Also: GroupM Sees 23% CTV Growth, More Political Spending, Boosting TV

Innovid acquired TVSquared, which measures the impact and effectiveness of ad campaigns, in March. AdImpact had been working with TVSquared to measure political ad reach on CTV.

The re-christened TVSquared by Innovid platform provides metrics on reach, frequency, incremental reach and performance, identifies the point of diminishing returns and optimal ad frequencies and finds efficiencies, enabling campaigns to optimize and retarget specific audiences, the company said.

“Broadcast and cable TV remain powerful tools for advertisers, but as CTV grows rapidly, advertisers are diverting dollars to streaming,” said Bob Ivins, chief strategy officer at TVSquared by Innovid. “Understanding the unique reach of linear and streaming, and that overlap, have become increasingly important — and political advertising is no different. We are excited to support the measurement and analytics needs of candidates and causes during this political cycle.” ■

The E.W. Scripps Co. is leading a new consortium of broadcasters looking to bring political advertising to their connected TV platforms.

In addition to Scripps, Cox Media Group, Capitol Broadcasting Co. and Graham Media Group are participating in the consortium.

Broadcast has traditionally gotten the lion’s share of the billions being spent on political advertising, but digital advertising has been gaining share. With another spending record expected to be set in the 2022 midterms, the broadcasters want to garner some of those digital dollars too as more viewers move to streaming.

Political spending is expected to reach about $9 billion in 2022, a number similar to last year’s presidential election. About $1.8 billion is expected to go to CTV.

Also: Scripps Looks Ahead to 2022 After Q4 Earnings Drop to $40 Million

“Collectively, we have a wall of inventory, and we’ve found a way to work together to make it easy for agencies to access that,” said Samantha Osborne, senior director of national sales for the Scripps Political CTV Consortium in Washington, D.C. “They can reach a high percentage of voters while making their own decisions but without having to work through numerous sales reps from different organizations. With the broadcasters we’ve assembled, we have billions of monthly premium connected TV impressions available for political advertisers.”

Through the consortium political ad buyers will be able to reach multiple CTV providers through one representative. 

“There are times when it makes sense to work together to produce a new and innovative product for the best interest of customers,” said John Conway, VP of WRAL Digital for Capitol Broadcasting. “This is one of those times when we can provide industry-leading service by collaborating.”

Scripps is exclusively working with Magnite to make CTV inventory available to agencies and programmatic buyers.

“Magnite is excited to be powering the technology for the Scripps Political CTV Consortium,” said Mike Laband, senior VP of CTV Platform for Magnite. “Working closely with Scripps and the consortium media owners, we are providing the market with a unique, scaled offering for political CTV ad investment.” ■

The FCC has voted to expand the online activities that define a candidate, and to square its political file rules with the 2002 Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA).

FCC chair Jessica Rosenworcel had teed up the item for a vote at the January 27 public meeting, but it has already been approved and so won't be on the agenda after all.

The Report and Order (R&O) voted and released Tuesday (January 25), revises activities fitting the definition of "legally qualified candidate for public office" to include creating a campaign website or using social media to further that campaign.

That definition has to do with whether a write-in candidate has made a "substantial showing" of their bona fide candidacy. If a TV station provides airtime to a legally qualified candidate for public office, it must make a similar provision to all other bona fide candidates for that office.

Cable operators can also take into account those online activities when it comes to equal opportunities and lowest unit charge requirements.

The R&O also revised the political file rules to extend political record keeping rules to issue ads -- ads that communicate a message on any political subject of national importance -- as well as campaign ads. ■

A trio of Democratic House members have introduced a bill that would require broadcasters to make their reports on political ad sponsorships machine readable.

H.R. 5897, the Fair and Clear Campaign (FCC) Transparency Act was introduced in the House by Reps. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.T), and John Yarmuth (D-Ky.).

Currently broadcasters have to make public--in their FCC public files--reports of the airtime they have sold or donated for political ads, but they don't have to do it in a standard format that can be "easily analyzed by researchers and watchdog groups," Eshoo said in announcing their bill.

A Senate version has been introduced by Ben Ray Lujan (D-N.M.).

“Our simple legislation empowers researchers, watchdogs, and the public to make sense of information broadcasters are already required to report by requiring the FCC make this information machine-readable," added Eshoo.

TVSquared, the ad measurement and attribution company, said it is working with AdImpact to provide real-time reach and frequency metrics for political ads on connected TV.

AdImpact, which collects ad intelligence ads, earlier this year projected that 17% of political ad spending in 2022 -- about $1.5 billion -- will land on CTV.

Also Read: CTV Ad Spending Up 84% in 1st Quarter: TVSquared

“TV continues to reinvent itself and TV measurement is too,” said Bob Ivins, chief strategy officer at TVSquared. “With eyeballs moving from linear to streaming, and ad dollars following, advertisers want tools to consistently measure campaign reach, frequency and effectiveness across platforms. It’s about having holistic campaign metrics, not platform-specific ones. We are looking forward to working with AdImpact to do just that for political candidates and causes.” 

Also Read: TVSquared Launches Analytics Platform ADvantage XP

Together TVSquared and AdImpact will be able to quantify incremental reach for CTV campaigns over linear and across platforms, identify the point of diminishing returns when audiences become overexposed, and optimize campaigns to specific audiences and retarget them over the course of a campaign.

“Our partnership with TVSquared will bring a new set of performance metrics to political campaigns,” said AdImpact CEO Kyle Roberts. “We are allowing candidates to connect paid media to website and fundraising performance in real time, bringing an entirely new level of accountability and transparency to TV advertising.” 

Univision Communications released data showing a big increase in registration and turnout among Hispanic voters.

Working with election data company Labels & Lists (known as L2), Univision said that 16.1 million Hispanics voted in the 2020 election, up 30% from 2016. 

A jump in first time voters and 18-34 year old voters contributed to the increase. 

L2 also forecasts double-digit voter growth for the 2022 midterms in key states including Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.

The data supports the notion that candidates should advertise in Spanish-language media to reach the growing Hispanic voting block.

In 2020, Univision generated $147 million in political advertising.

Univision also said that 68% of Hispanic registered voters cast a ballot in 2020, compared to 54% in 2016. Of the Hispanics voting, 58% were registered Democrats, 17% were registered Republicans and 24% were independents or members of other parties.

Registered Republicans were more likely to vote, with an 80% turnout, compared to 70% for registered Democrats.

Gray Television reported higher fourth-quarter profits as a rush of political advertising boosted revenue.

Net income rose to $211 million, or $2.22 per share, compared to $81 million, or 81 cents a share a year ago.

Revenue rose 38% to $763 million, with political ad revenue in the quarter hitting $245 million, compared to $38 million a year ago. For the full year, political advertising was $430 million.

Gray agreed to acquire Quincy Media for $925 million in cash in March. Gray said the transaction will be accretive to cash flow and that it will have year-one synergies of about $23 million

Local and national broadcast revenue excluding political revenue dropped 8% in the fourth quarter from a year ago. The company attributed the drop to political ads squeezing out traditional advertisers in a large number of markets. 

Gray said core ad revenue was down 2% in December, after a 1% drop in November and 22% in October.

Retransmission consent revenue rose 11% to $217 million.

“Despite the impact of the novel Coronavirus and its disease (collectively, “COVID-19”) on economic activity, our strong political revenues, prudent cost management, strategic sales initiatives and training, and focused management at every level during the last three quarters of 2020, and especially the fourth quarter of 2020, resulted in record operating results for the fourth quarter and the full-year,” the company said.

Gray Television said that its TV stations and digital services have run more than $400 million in political advertising so far this year.

Gray’s stations in Georgia have run $20 million worth of campaign advertising for the state’s two U.S. Senate runoff races since election day on Nov. 3. 

Gray said it expects political advertising will continue to grow through Jan 5, 2021, when the special Senate runoff elections are held.

Gray has Georgia stations in Savannah, Albany, Columbus and Thomasville.

Overall Gray owns station and digital properties in 94 markets. 

The E.W. Scripps Co. swung to a profit in the third quarter as revenue was boosted by acquisitions and political advertising.

Net income was $58.5 million, or 69 cents a share, compared to a loss of $21.8 million, or 27 cents, a year ago.

Revenue rose 49% to $493 million from $331 million, including $50 million from former Tribune stations acquired from Nexstar Media Group. 

Political ad revenue in the quarter was $98.3 million.

“Despite the lingering economic disruption, Scripps achieved record political advertising revenue, nearly 40% retransmission revenue growth, a rebound in core advertising, double-digit National Media revenue growth and a return to National division margin expansion,” said CEO Adam Symson.

Symson said Scripps was  on track to end the year at more than $280 million of free cash flow, or at least $3.42 of free cash, exceeding its guidance to Wall Street.

“We credit this performance to a recovering advertising marketplace combined with our strategies to become a stronger and more durable enterprise. Our recently announced acquisition of ION Media is another step in our systematic plan to improve the financial profile of the company and increase free cash flow, providing a clear path to debt reduction,’ he said.

Local media profit rose to $145 million from $48.7 million as revenues increased 60% to $404 million. Adjusted for the station acquisitions, revenue was up 32%

Retransmission revenue increased 60% to $152 million. Adjusted retrans revenue was up 39%.

Core ad revenue increased 2.2% to $151 million, helped by the addition of the Tribune stations. Adjusted ad revenue decreased 18%. 

National Media--including the Katz Networks and Newsy-- generated a $12.1 million profit, up from $9.7 million a year ago. Revenue rose to $98.4 million from $78.3 million. 

Spanish-language television is seeing big increases in political ad spending, particularly in swing state Florida, according to Kantar’s Campaign Media Analysis Group.

Nationwide since Sept. 1, Kantar calculates that $932 million has been spent on presidential campaign ads across TV and radio and that 62% of that ($581 million ) has been for Joe Biden. President Trump’s re-election campaign has been backed by $352 million in TV and radio ads during that time.

That number includes ads already scheduled to run through Nov. 3.

Three of the top five markets in terms of presidential election ad spending are in Florida, with Orlando seeing $51.2 million, Miami getting $47.9 million and Tampa garnering $46.1 million.

Kantar noted that since January 2019, $24 million has been spent in Florida on Spanish-language broadcast TV to reach the large Puerto Rican, Cuban and Venezuelan populations in the state.

Nearly $5 million has been spent in Orlando on Spanish-language broadcast TV, compared to less than $1 million during the entire 2016 presidential election cycle. Many ads have focused on Puerto Rican immigrants, many of whom relocated there after Hurricane Maria.

Spending on Spanish language network advertising was more than $15 million, up from $3 million in 2016. 

For the September to Nov. 3 period, Phoenix ranks No. 2  

The other top 5 market is Philadelphia.

A new study by Advertiser Perceptions found that half of the marketers and media buyers surveyed are taking evasive action because of unprecedented levels of political ad clutter as Election Day approaches.

Of 300 advertisers surveyed, 52% said they have altered fall media buys because of political commercials. Advertisers Perceptions found that 33% have held back ads to avoid the rush of political ads and 18% have added frequency buys to try to cut through candidate clutter.

Advertisers expect Fox and CNN to have the most political advertisers this fall.

Advertiser Perception found that advertisers’ persona dissatisfaction with political advertising might be affecting ad spending decisions. In the study, 80% said they believe the media should fact-check political ads and 60% said they would opt out of receiving political advertising.

The survey found that 66% of marketers and 59% of agency execs expected Joe Biden to win the presidential election.

The survey was taken in September. Of the 300 respondents, 40% were marketers and 60% from agencies.

Tegna, releasing preliminary financial results for the third-quarter said that a record-breaking year for political advertising will boost revenue by 34% to $738 million. 

Excluding political advertising, revenue is expected to be up 14%, thanks to acquisitions and stronger than expected spending offsetting the effects COVID-19 have had on local businesses.

Tegna acquired stations from Dispatch in August 2019 and Nextstar in 2019.

Net income is expected to come in at $132 million, double a year ago. 

The company also said full-year subscription revenue for the full year of 2020 is expected to be up in the high-twenty percentage range. The company previously provided guidance that subscription revenue would be up in the mid 20% range.

The following is an excerpt from “Political Advertising 101: A Refresher Course for Very Busy People” by Wiley partner John M. Burgett.

Stations must sell time to federal candidates throughout their campaign and cannot set any predetermined limits on the spot inventory made available to federal candidates. The only exception is that stations can exclude federal candidate spots from news programs.

Stations cannot censor or edit a candidate’s ad, except to provide the required sponsorship identification information (discussed above).  

Unless the spot is obscene or otherwise violates a felony statute or another Federal Communications Commission rule, a station must broadcast a candidate’s ad uncensored — no matter how offensive, distasteful or defamatory the ad may be. Because stations cannot censor candidate ads, broadcasters are immune from civil liability for the content of such ads.  

Keep in mind, however, that the FCC’s rules only apply to “legally qualified candidates” who have fulfilled all of the requirements to run for a particular office. Whether a candidate is legally qualified is usually pretty obvious; however, if you’re not sure, it’s OK to ask for proof. It is up to the candidate, not the station, to demonstrate that he or she meets the candidate requirements under applicable federal, state or local law.

Third-Party Risks

On the other hand, the “no censorship” rule (and, hence, the station’s shield against potential liability) does not apply to third-party ads, so stations may refuse to air such ads or demand edits if they’re uncomfortable with the ad’s content.

The “no censorship” rule and a station’s immunity from civil liability do not extend to third-party ads. Accordingly, before airing third-party ads, station management should be sure that it is comfortable with the content (and it can demand that changes be made to the content as a condition to airing the spot), since the station is not immune from defamation suits or copyright infringement claims arising out of the content of such ads.

A situation that occurs with increasing frequency — and intensity — as Election Day nears is this: A station runs a third-party ad that attacks a candidate, and then the candidate tells the station that the ad is a pack of lies and threatens to sue the station if it doesn’t stop running the ad. So what is a station to do? First, if the station doesn’t already have it, you should immediately request that the sponsor of the spot provide you with documentation of its claims.  Second, we strongly recommend contacting your attorneys to assess the risk of continuing to the run the ad while you investigate the matter and also to help you determine if the documentation provided is sufficient to support the claims made in the ad.

Keeping in mind that a broadcaster is always free to decline running a third-party ad if it is uncomfortable with it, we note that most political ads — while they may be replete with nasty political hardball — generally do not rise to the level of defamation. More often than not, the alleged defamatory content proves essentially to be a matter of interpretation, rather than an outright falsehood. Moreover, although the target of an attack ad often will argue that the station is responsible for the truth or falsity of all material aired on the station — which is technically true — the FCC has been disinclined to saddle stations with the burden of examining and verifying the merits of every political claim.  However, when a third-party ad veers from political issues into attacks on a candidate’s personal character or integrity — e.g., accuses him or her of having an affair, committing a crime, etc. — stations should be extra cautious.

We strongly recommend that all station staff handling political buys and/or maintaining the [FCC] political file brush up on the key rules governing political broadcasting. 

Wiley partner John M. Burgett represents broadcasters, including TV and radio group owners, before the FCC on a host of matters including political advertising.

Political advertising in 2020, like many other factors in this unprecedented campaign season, will be very different. It’s not just about the mail-in ballots brouhaha or result report challenges on the night of Nov. 3.

Cable, broadcast and advertising executives plus seasoned political tacticians and analysts are gearing up for constant revisions in how campaigns advertise during the coming six weeks. They are trying to determine how to schedule messages in a year where up to 50% of voters may cast their ballots well before Halloween weekend, when (in a “normal” year) we’d see a deluge of last-minute campaign commercials.

“September is the new October,” Republican ad strategist Evan Tracey told me.

Democratic media expert Mark Jablonowski said he expects that “the typical binge right at the end … will be smaller since campaigns will begin spending earlier.”

Like other political operatives and media executives, rivals Tracey and Jablonowski agreed that the early emphasis is “get-out-the-vote” messages, both by candidates and political action committees. They said that COVID-19 has forced everyone to “focus early” on political advertising. Moreover, constant polling throughout the coming weeks will drive campaigns to buy commercials in locations where they identify still-undecided voters who have not yet cast early ballots.

Dan Sinagoga, head of political sales at Effectv, the advertising sales division of Comcast Cable (formerly known as Comcast Spotlight) expects that the commercial flow during September and October will be front-loaded more than usual. 

“Early spending for the General Election is up by 14% in Effectv markets this cycle compared to 2018 and 20% over 2016,” he told Multichannel News.  

“States like California, Colorado and Oregon have always been traditional heavy mail-in states in the Effectv footprint, but you will see more early voting in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida than ever before according to our agency partners,” Sinagoga explained.

As for sufficient ad-time inventory, he acknowledged that availability has “become a challenge” to some non-political clients, leading to a “delivery strain” as the amount of campaign advertising increases.

“Had it not been for the slow ramp to the retail business due to COVID-19, August’s political uptick would have caused greater spot clearance issues for non-political advertisers,” he said, noting that August felt “very much like the General Election window started already.”

He cited the growth of multi-platform advertising, which Sinagoga calls “a pivotal part of Effectv's sales efforts with VOD and IP inventory pitched along with linear TV on every avail.” He expects video-on-demand (or Connected TV) to become the “#1 or #2 reach channel available – on broadcast or cable – regardless of the market.”

“We are seeing a sweeping change in 2020 as it pertains to media allocations,” he said. “We are seeing political agencies and their clients planning for up to 25% of budgets towards OTT resources.”

Sinagoga points out that more than 70% of all digital political advertising is being placed programmatically.

“Effectv launched a programmatic offer in July and is pacing far ahead of where we had hoped at this point, with the General Election spending still to go,” he said.

Like others who are monitoring campaign spending, Sinagoga observes that media outlets in swing states are already seeing political ad growth – especially ones where early voting is widely used.

“The elongated voting season was a big driver in the record-setting political ad spend [Effectv] saw in August,” Sinagoga said, citing a FCC public file which showed that other companies also “benefitted from that heavy up.” 

Singagoga observes that “viewership data being used more holistically” in political ad buying.

“We averaged between eight to 12 networks on political buys during the primary season this year, where we typically see between one to four networks,” with the biggest growth coming on cable news channels. He noted that there were “Fox News-only executions in heavily Republican states.”

Effectv’s data shows that viewers are spending more than 77% more time with cable news, mainly MSNBC and Fox News. Moreover, political ads are going to female-skewing networks such as HGTV, USA, TLC and the Food Network, which he calls “voter-rich environments.”

More Automotive, Retail Competition for Ad Avails

This year’s political advertising playbook is complicated by competition for channel inventory as beleaguered retailers begin their pre-holiday marketing campaigns earlier than ever in an effort to recoup sales lost during the early days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Now is also prime season for automotive advertising as car companies introduce new models with aggressive TV campaigns.

In addition to candidates’ commercials, this year’s political line-up will be overwhelmed by Political Action on Committees ads, which are not subject to the “lowest unit price” (LUP) rates that candidates must be offered for broadcast and cable TV buys.   

Steve Lanzano, president and CEO of the Television Bureau of Advertising, has observed variants of the early-advertising movement in many states. "It started earlier," he told me with a nod to the "agility" of political media buyers, who are buying time dynamically.

“Their money moves on a daily and weekly basis, based on the polls,” he said.

At Gray Television Inc. (which owns or operates TV stations in 94 markets), Kevin Latek, executive VP and chief legal and development officer, also acknowledges that “early voting [puts] pressure on campaigns to ramp up advertising earlier than October.”

“We saw some 2020 Senate candidates start advertising last summer,” he said, noting that, “Political advertising displaces traditional advertising to varying degrees.”

Like Sinagoga at Effectv, Latek cited the increasing role of political ads on digital platforms, including ones each company operates.  He pointed to the growing role of targeted political ads on connected TV/over-the-top ad platforms, which are sold through the company’s ad representatives.

Political Gurus See “Everything Happening Earlier”

Steve Passwaiter, VP/general manager at Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which monitors political advertising, characterizes 2020 as “very unfamiliar territory.” He observes that political action committees – which are not entitled to the LUP rates that candidates pay – are outspending candidates. 

 “This year we’ll get a flood of ads early,” Passwaiter told me.  He cited the “passion that’s in the mix this year,” although he still expects 40% of campaign funds will be spent on ads during October – probably early in the month. 

Kantar envisions $7 billion in national, state and local political advertising in this election cycle, including $1.2 billion for local and network cable TV and $3.5 billion for local and network broadcast TV. Digital platforms will garner $1.8 billion of the total, with the balance going to radio, print and other media.

PQMedia, a Connecticut firm that has been analyzing election spending since 2004, expects total political advertising to top $9.3 billion this year.

Dr. Leo Kivijarv, executive VP and research director at PQMedia, also expects “October will be a bigger month than normal.”

“Spending will not be concentrated in the last two weeks before Election Day,” he told me. Like other researchers, Kivijarv expects ad-buying decisions will be made dynamically as campaign strategists track voter polls – especially in swing states – in order to throw money to lure voters who are still making up their minds.  He is especially focused on radio, which over-indexes on Black and Hispanic voters

Republican and Democratic party strategists also are evaluating how mail-in and early voting processes are affecting ad tactics. Most acknowledge that COVID-19 has curtailed traditional campaign procedures – especially for local races – such as neighborhood events or door-knocking appeals.

Jablonowski, managing partner & CTO of DSPolitical, a digital advertising company for Democratic candidates and progressives causes, said “everything is happening a little earlier.”

"Ad buys are beginning earlier than ever for the more competitive races," he told me. "Peak spending will start a bit sooner and last a bit longer than is typical," although campaigns for down-ballot races may be delayed because of fund-raising problems, he said.

“There are likely to be more buys than previous years – and they will be aligned to several key dates on a state-by-state basis,” Jablonowski added. “We’ll also see get-out-the-vote buys starting earlier and running longer in more states. But this isn’t about the number ad buys; it’s about the amount of money that is behind the buys.”

“This election requires a much larger voter education and get-out-the-vote effort to help those who are unfamiliar with new voting processes and important dates to remember in addition to Election Day. That means multiple flights, targets, and creative strategies,” Jablonowski said.

Republican political consultant Tracey agreed that early advertising to get-out-the-vote will be a prime GOP goal this year. Beyond seeing September as “the new October,” Tracey described the increased importance of get-out-the-vote efforts plus the newfound attention to over-the-top and connected TV this year.

People are learning how their smart TVs work with all their time at home,” he said. “It will be a more challenging buying environment as we move toward November.”

Tracey expects PACs as well as candidates to put funds into early voting promotions.  And ultimately he acknowledges that since 80% of Americans have already made up their minds on which Presidential candidate they favor, the big push is to get out the vote and sway that “undecided” cadre of 15% to 20% of votes to swing your way.

Tracey noted that historically early voting has been a way “to bank your base.” Now, he said, the message to everyone is, “Don’t wait for Election Day.”  He called it a tactical move to “get your base voters to bank their votes early, then concentrate on the undecided.”

As a result, ad spending is coming early “because it’s that kind of year.”

“This is the only business where you spend the most amount of money when you have the least number of prospective customers left,” Tracey said.

AT&T’s WarnerMedia has set up a system for selling digital advertising inventory programmatic via private marketplaces set up by the company’s Xandr advanced advertising unit.

This year’s election is expected to generate record advertising spending, with big increases coming in digital advertising. That’s happening at the same time as the COVID-19 pandemic is cutting demand for most other forms of advertising.

Xandr said its programmatic pipeline is set up to give election-year campaign access to premium inventory while ensuring trust, transparency and compliance to a dedicated creative approval process.

“WarnerMedia – like all publishers – has a responsibility to meet the needs of our advertising partners while protecting audiences who come to our platforms for information and entertainment,” said Joe Hogan, executive VP of sales and marketing at WarnerMedia. “The highest of standards is key in protecting each of our partner’s messages, and digital environments are no exception. In collaborating with Xandr, we are confident that this system and solution enables political and advocacy advertisers to reach the intended audiences in the proper context, across our entire ecosystem.”

WarnerMedia said it has set up a process that includes a manual creative review to check that ads meet its standards for accuracy and compliance. 

In a recent study, Xandr found that three out of four respondents said they believed political ads include “fraudulent” or “fake” information. Despite that, 60% or more said they have researched or read more about a cause or candidate after exposure to a political ad, demonstrating the need for safeguarding ads.

“Xandr has seen increased demand for flexible access to political inventory this election year across all screens – in premium, brand-safe environments,” said Mike Welch, head of Xandr. “We’ve made a commitment to political buyers to expedite creative approvals to streamline campaigns, while meeting our rigorous compliance standards during this busy election season. By enabling a secondary creative review within our platform, we are able to turn on political advertising programmatically in a safe and compliant manner across the WarnerMedia portfolio.”

In an election year marked by a big jump in streaming, political candidates might be among the advertisers looking to spend money on connected TV.

A new survey by Magnite--the ad platform formed by the recent merger of Rubicon Project and Telaria--found that 40% of persuadable voters have not been persuaded to subscribe to cable or satellite TV. 

Magnite, in a study entitled “The Power of CTV: Reaching Persuadable Voters in 2020” defines persuadable voters as the 30% of eligible voters who call themselves independent or undecided.

The survey also found that 70% of persuadable voters  have an ad-supported streaming service, including 81% of Hispanic and Latino voters.

“Four years ago, political advertisers were not thinking about CTV as a big opportunity but that is a stark contrast to this election cycle where 40% of persuadable voters can’t be found through cable and satellite services,” said Dan Fairclough, senior director of Political Demand Sales at Magnite. “Candidates are honing in on specific types of voters, the ones who are hard-to-reach, undecided and young, particularly in swing and flip states. CTV provides that level of targeting within premium brand-safe content not found on social media and with the agility that traditional TV buying lacks.” 

The study found heightened interest in this year’s election, with 88% of those surveyed saying they plan to vote and 73% saying they’ll pay more attention to political ads in this election compared to the last one. 

The findings showed that 75% of those surveyed prefer political ads that have video and 70% reported taking an average of two actions, such as conducting more research on a candidate and visiting a candidate’s website, after seeing a digital video political ad. 

Political ads on social media were described as untrustworthy and deceitful by 72% of respondents.

“As more video content is consumed online, it becomes critical to reach voters with quality inventory when they are receptive,” said Sean Senters, director at Targeted Victory, a digital agency that started out doing political campaign and now also works for brands. “The uptick in cord-cutters and a pandemic-induced stay at home lifestyle has made CTV a powerful tool for advertisers to have a TV-like experience with digital tracking and metrics. With more than two months to go until Election Day, we are already seeing CTV scale at levels we did not believe we would reach in 2020.”

“Given how complex the issues are this campaign season, we’ve already seen CTV provide us with both the audience reach and longer form creative canvas needed to most effectively communicate candidate platforms and messages at scale,” added Brian Stoller, CMO at Mobiquity Technologies. 

The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated cord-cutting while more people turn to free ad-supported CTV for news and entertainment. In the study 76% of cord cutters said they were streaming more ad AVOD content now than before the virus descended on the country.

“CTV presents an effective, responsible and transparent opportunity to engage with voters,” said Adam Lowy, head of North American demand sales and strategy at Magnite. “With CTV, political buyers can eliminate wasted impressions and are no longer bound to DMAs, which sometimes cover two, or even three states. We’ve helped political advertisers layer in additional criteria to help their buys go further, with higher match rates and high viewability.”

While some states have postponed primaries, federal and state elections are still set to take place in November. This means political advertisers must forge ahead despite the newfound complexities the world has been forced to confront. Candidates aren’t going to get a chance to shake voters’ hands anytime soon, so connecting with them virtually via video and advanced TV is more important than ever.

It goes without saying that the pandemic presents new challenges for marketers. For starters, they are collaborating across decentralized teams and adjusting to working from home. Many feel stuck in reactive mode, which makes planning for the future even more difficult. Obviously, recent events have turned political strategies upside down, and candidates are scrambling to find ways to connect with voters from a social distance. President Donald Trump, presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden and many other candidates vying for votes this fall have been forced to adapt their approach to voter outreach and engagement. Trump is conducting streaming events in lieu of rallies and Biden is also leaning into virtual options.

For all candidates, well-executed online events are a means to maintaining connections and rallying voters. Since most people are home, candidates may be able to drum up decent levels of participation. Virtual rallies are also a chance to demonstrate leadership, build trust, inspire and comfort Americans during these unprecedented times.

Understand Consumption Changes

In terms of paid advertising, political advertisers need to understand how media consumption has shifted in the past month. Out-of-home (OOH) advertising and print have taken a backseat as consumers turn to television to stay informed and combat boredom. Recent events that have forced Americans to stay home caused TV usage to increase by nearly 60%, according to Nielsen historical data. 

Today, “TV” doesn’t just mean linear. During recent extraordinary circumstances — Hurricane Harvey in Houston in 2017 and a severe blizzard in New York City in 2016 — streaming increased in the affected areas by 61%. In multiple regions impacted by COVID-19, live-streaming and Netflix usage increased, and Comcast reported a 38% increase in streaming and web-video consumption at the end of March, compared to earlier in the month.

Traditionally, linear TV has earned the lion’s share of political ad dollars. This year, eMarketer predicts traditional TV will account for 66% of the projected $6.89 billion in political ad spending. Granted, that record-breaking figure was released before the pandemic, but for political candidates, the show must go on. To supplement traditional TV campaigns, reach cord-cutters and leverage sophisticated targeting and measurement capabilities, political advertisers must lean into advanced TV.

By the end of 2020, 44.3 million U.S. households will be cord-cutters or cord-nevers, according to eMarketer. As for right now, there’s been an 85% increase in streaming TV consumption over the first three weeks of March. Therefore, advertisers should approach advanced TV as a strategy for reaching a vast majority of people from all ages and use audience segmentation to customize messaging for each target group.

Targeting is key to reaching precise audiences and spending campaign dollars effectively. Efficiency will be particularly important as the potential economic downturn could affect campaign fundraising. Using advanced TV, political candidates can reach registered voters and layer demographic or geolocation data targeting to personalize messaging. Other strategies include segmenting audiences based on their stance on key issues; targeting voters who have not seen their linear TV ads; targeting voters who have been exposed to their TV spot with a complementary message on mobile or connected TV/over-the-top (CTV/OTT); and/or targeting viewers who have been exposed to competitors’ ads.

Digital Marketing Is Key

Digital marketing, particularly on mobile, is also important. eMarketer predicts digital spending will account for 19.4% of political advertising, an increase of 203% compared to the 2015/16 presidential election. Google, YouTube and Facebook are the most popular digital channels, but candidates should consider other digital platforms to stand out from competitors and strike competitive deals. Facebook reports record-breaking usage as COVID-19 continues on, but many advertisers are pulling back or canceling their campaigns, and political advertisers may follow suit It is also possible that people will purposefully distance themselves from social media to keep their anxiety levels down, making the platform less desirable.  

In addition to reaching people in a fragmented media landscape, political advertisers need to be sure their messaging reflects people’s shifting priorities and mindsets. No matter how they are advertising, candidates must strike the right tone or risk turning off voters.

It is a tricky time for advertisers, but, unlike other marketing categories, political advertisers have no choice but to market amid the prevailing narrative. By deploying virtual events and adopting a mix of advanced-TV and digital strategies, candidates will reach voters with messages that resonate — even in these uncertain times.

Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.) has collected a number of supporters for her bill banning microtargeted political ads.

Those backers include Mozilla, Common Cause, the Center for Digital Democracy, and the Open Markets Institute. 

The idea behind the bill is to battle coordinated disinformation/misinformation campaigns. 

H.R. 7014, the Banning Microtargeted Political Ads Act, would prohibit social media sites, streaming services and ad networks from targeting political ads based on demos or behavioral data.  

It applies to all electioneering communications, meaning both candidate and noncandidate ads. 

The Federal Election Commission will enforce the prohibition and there will be a private right of action as well, class action suits for example. 

The bill does allow ads targeted by state, municipality and congressional district and targeted to individuals who opt in to targeted ads.   

“Political speech is critical to democratic discourse, but organized disinformation and organic misinformation use microtargeting and prevent ideas from being debated in the open. Changing how paid political messaging works online could be a powerful step forward in response to the ongoing challenges of disinformation and manipulation of our democratic processes, whether by candidates, PACs, or others. We appreciate this legislation and the thoughtfulness of Rep. Eshoo in moving this discussion forward,” said Heather West, head of Americas public policy at Mozilla. 

According to a recent poll cited by Eshoo's office, a majority of both Republicans (75%) and Democrats (69%) oppose using personal information for hyper-targeted political ads.  

National Media, a political ad agency, signed an agreement to use Nielsen Voter Ratings for local TV measurement in key markets.

The deal also includes voter data from Local Nielsen Media Impact, which gives the company cross-media planning capabilities for political campaigns.

National Media already subscribes to several Nielsen services, including its national and local TV ratings, Nielsen Scarborough. It also licensed audio data from Local Nielsen Media Impact.

Financial terms of the new deal were not disclosed.

As the race for November’s election continues to accelerate and media habits evolve, it’s vital for agencies to have accurate and timely information on how voters are consuming media,” said Adam Wise, VP at National Media Research, planning & placement. “Our team has confidence that Nielsen Voter Ratings will provide an improved view of key audiences.” 

Nielsen launched an enhanced cross-platform version of Nielsen Voter Ratings in January, expanding it to 208 markets, which enables media buyers and sellers to more effectively reach and understand the media preferences of potential voters.

“We are pleased to continue to broaden our relationship with National Media,” said Dan Malmed, managing director, regional agency team at Nielsen. “We look forward to empowering National Media with true local cross-media planning, including radio, giving them a comprehensive understanding of how potential voters consume media in this 2020 election cycle.” 

Univision said it launched Vamos, a voter analytics and optimization tool just ahead of the 2020 election season, which is expected to generate record levels of ad spending.

Vamos consolidates insights from Univision with richer data in order to help political consultants and media buyers make better informed buying decisions when it comes to reaching Hispanic citizens before they go to the polls.

Vamos data provides the likelihood for Hispanics to vote for Democrats or Republicans or to be undecided or swing voters.

Hispanic voter turnout doubled to 10 million in 2018 and Univision said it is projected that 15 million eligible Hispanic voters are expected to vote in 2020, playing a pivotal role in the presidential race and other down-ballot contests.

“The nation’s Hispanic voters are not monolithic. It is key for each of the political parties and campaigns to speak to the 32 million eligible Hispanic voters across the U.S. about the issues and candidates,” said Univision’s Michele Day, senior VP, political, advocacy & government group. “Univision is the gateway to this community, and if you are not speaking to them as part of your political buying strategy, then you are missing out on an opportunity to reach our exclusive audience, 83% of which don’t watch any of the top 10 English-language networks.”

Univision said it launched Vamos, a voter analytics and optimization tool just ahead of the 2020 election season, which is expected to generate record levels of ad spending.

Vamos consolidates insights from Univision with richer data in order to help political consultants and media buyers make better informed buying decisions when it comes to reaching Hispanic citizens before they go to the polls.

Vamos data provides the likelihood for Hispanics to vote for Democrats or Republicans or to be undecided or swing voters. 

Hispanic voter turnout doubled to 10 million in 2018 and Univision said it is projected that 15 million eligible Hispanic voters are expected to vote in 2020, playing a pivotal role in the presidential race and other down-ballot contests. 

“The nation’s Hispanic voters are not monolithic. It is key for each of the political parties and campaigns to speak to the 32 million eligible Hispanic voters across the U.S. about the issues and candidates,” said Univision’s Michele Day, senior VP, political, advocacy & government group. “Univision is the gateway to this community, and if you are not speaking to them as part of your political buying strategy, then you are missing out on an opportunity to reach our exclusive audience, 83% of which don’t watch any of the top 10 English-language networks.”

Tru Optik said it agreed to integrate Deep Root Analytics’ audience-based political, public affairs and corporate advocacy segments into Tru Optik’s Political Data Cloud.

The integration will help give political advertisers the ability to more precisely target campaigns based on voter history, consumer and behavioral insights across over-the-top and connected TV.

“There’s no denying that now, more than ever, registered voters are engaging in content from connected TV. Political candidates, campaigns and advocacy groups must recognize this and leverage these platforms in order to reach targeted voter audiences,” said Richard Kosinski, executive VP, sales, at Tru Optik. “Deep Root’s scale of deterministic and modeled political data directly sourced from voters enhances our capabilities of offering unparalleled scale, accuracy and reach on ad-supported OTT and CTV.”

Tru Optik said its Political Data Cloud enables political advertisers to use OTT to target specific voter groups on a local, state or national level across such factors as party affiliation, past voting behavior and issue orientation.

“Deep Root has invested heavily in building best-in-class audiences for political, public affairs, and corporate reputation advertisers. We are excited to partner with Tru Optik to power audience-based advertising across all OTT and CTV devices and platforms,” said Deep Root Analytics chief revenue officer, David Seawright. “This partnership will allow agencies and advertisers to leverage Deep Root’s premium audiences in new ways and will elevate their digital targeting capabilities across an increasingly fractured landscape."

Consumers will be able to opt-out of audience-based targeting through Tru Optik’s Privacy.TV.

Some veteran social media/ad executives are looking to increase social media's share of political ad bucks, while making a buck themselves. 

Investor and tech exec Jamie Tedford heads up Booster, a company whose software will allow political campaigns to crowdfund social media ads targeted to a specific message and "tactic."  

The software is tied to Facebook's effort to vet those political ads. 

Related: Twitter Bans Political Ads 

Campaign and issue ads that have been certified by Facebook will be able to "invite" donors to make small-dollar contributions "boosting" specific posts.  

Booster software will process the donations and target them to the posts, with Booster making its money from those political campaigns by getting a small cut of each "boost."  

The effort has gotten input from Adrienne Elrod, former director of strategic communications for the Hillary Clinton 2016 presidential campaign and and Minyon Moore ("For Colored Girls Who Considered Politics"), among others. 

Mike Garsin, who co-founded digital ad firm Brand Networks with Tedford, will be CTO of Booster, while Aaron Earls, co-founder of New Media Strategies (now owned by Meredith Corp.) will be chief commercial officer. 

Kantar Media is projecting TV ad spending in 2016 (a presidential-election year) will hit $4.4 billion, though the report notes there are many variables yet to play out, such as how long the Republican primaries string along in contested fashion and how much financial support outside groups will pour into the Hillary Clinton campaign on the Democrat side. That figure would be about a 15% an increase from the reported $3.8 billion spent on TV ads in the 2012 campaign.

Elizabeth Wilner of Kantar said in a post for The Cook Political Report that Kantar's Campaign Media Analysis Group analysis does assume there will be a $500 million bump in presidential-campaign spending just because this is the first presidential race since the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision paved the way for more possible spending by outside groups.

"We could see less than $4.4 billion on TV if the GOP primary drags on, or more than $4.4 billion if it wraps up fast," Wilner reported. "We could see less than $4.4 billion if Democratic billionaires don’t bring their A-game for Clinton, or more than $4.4 billion if they do. We also could see more than $4.4 billion if California produces a juicy slate of ballot initiatives. Overall, we see slightly more upside than downside in this early estimate of 2016 political TV ad spend."

If a Republican candidate emerges from the primaries relatively quickly, it could lead to more spending in groups of 10 states or more at a time, rather than if several candidates are only spending in a few states at a time while the primaries are competitive, the Kantar analysis said

The Kantar estimate projects $3.3 billion of the political-ad buys to go to local broadcast TV stations and about $800 million (or 20%) going to local cable ads. Kantar said cable ad sellers are predicting they will get a 30% share but that Kantar's information from several large media shops was that cable would get 18%-24%.

National broadcast ads could pull in about $300 million, Kantar said. The Obama campaign effectively played national networks and local stations against each other, which led to more national-ad spending, and the same could be true for campaigns in 2016. 

Photo: Hillary Clinton at an April 2015 campaign visit to Jones Street Java House in Le Claire, Iowa, via Wikimedia Commons.