The cable news networks, bolstered by coverage of the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine, locked in the top slots on both the primetime and total day cable charts last week, according to Nielsen.

Fox News led the pack with an average of 3.5 million viewers in primetime for the week of February 28 to March 6, reported Nielsen. Along with its Ukraine coverage, Fox News was led by its March 1 coverage of President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, which drew 7.2 million viewers. CNN finished second with 1.8 million viewers for the week, followed by MSNBC with 1.6 million viewers. 

ESPN was fourth with 1.3 million viewers, followed by HGTV’s 1 million watchers. Food Network (823,000 viewers), TLC (816,000), History (810,000), Discovery Channel (796,000) and Hallmark Channel (769,000) rounded out the top 10 most-watched networks for the week. 

Fox News, CNN and MSNBC also held the top three spots on the total day chart, followed by HGTV, ESPN, Hallmark Channel, Food Network, INSP , TV Land and History, said Nielsen. ■   

Nielsen said that it has reached a multi-year renewal with Cunningham Broadcasting and will continue to provide its stations with local TV measurement.

The deal covers WATM-TV and WWCP-TV in the Johnstown/Altoona market and WTAT-TV in Charleston, S.C.

The stations will also have access to Nielsen Scarborough local service.

Financial terms were not disclosed.

“We are excited to be working with Nielsen again,” said Michael Anderson, president of Cunningham Broadcasting Inc. “The suite of products and services will benefit us and our clients tremendously.” 

Nielsen competes with Comscore in providing local audience measurement services for broadcasters.

“We’re pleased to welcome WATM-ABC, WWCP-FOX and WTAT-FOX back to Nielsen and to our enhanced local TV audience data measurement capabilities, and we look forward to working with them to support their success in these unprecedented times,” said Catherine Herkovic, executive VP and managing director, Nielsen Local. “Our core data, as well as the Scarborough qualitative information, will assist them in helping local advertisers know where to find their target consumers.”

Wall street analysts are typically concerned about cable programmers’ cash-flow and affiliate fees during earnings season, but these days consolidation is commanding the conversation.

As earnings season begins for big programmers such as The Walt Disney Co., 21st Century Fox and Viacom, investors are concerned about the scale needed for content companies’ plans to stream direct to consumers.

“While advertising and subscriber trends are arguably not set to improve, they’re also not top of mind,” RBC Capital Markets media analyst Steven Cahall wrote in a note to clients, adding that tax reform and consolidation will more probably be the dominant themes. “There’s likely to be as much, if not more, debate around the [Department of Justice] view of media consolidation as there will be around cord-cutting.”

Disney and Fox have already announced their deal plans. In December, Disney agreed to purchase certain Fox assets for $66.1 billion.

Viacom and CBS are reportedly revisiting the possibility of recombining the companies — they split in 2005 — in a move that in the past many believed to be more favorable strategically to the cable programmer than its broadcast cousin.

Related: CBS, Viacom Form Special Committees to Evaluate Possible Merger

But as ratings have declined and cord-cutting accelerates, some analysts believe drafting a viable direct-to-consumer strategy is more important than ever, and consolidation is the only way to get there. “Viacom and CBS simply cannot wait any longer,” BTIG media analyst Rich Greenfield wrote in a recent note. While CBS already has a direct-to-consumer product in CBS All Access, the analyst said that alone isn’t enough.

The Fox deal would strengthen Disney’s programming dominance, adding Fox’s 22 regional sports networks, its 20th Century Fox movie and television production studio, and cable networks FX, FXX and National Geographic, as well as Fox’s 39% stake in U.K. satellite-TV service Sky. With the transaction expected to close by the end of the year — and already receiving a ringing endorsement from President Donald Trump — Disney appears to be taking the more-is-better approach as the content distribution sands continue to shift.

With viewers increasingly moving away from traditional distribution methods for mobile, over-the-top and online offerings, Disney is bulking up its already hefty content coffers to ensure no matter what method viewers use to consume content, they are likely to run into at least one Disney-owned property. As for sports, Fox’s regional sports assets should add fodder to Disney’s planned ESPN Plus OTT offering, scheduled for later in the spring.

Related: It’s Game On for ESPN After Disney-Fox Deal

Fox Takes a New Stance
Fox, in turn, is taking the sniper’s tack as opposed to Disney’s shotgun approach. By keeping its broadcast network and TV stations, perennial news ratings champ Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network and national sports channels FS1, FS2 and Big Ten Network, Fox is honing in on what it believes can still attract robust ratings and ad dollars — live sports and news. It further solidified that stance with its deal to pay about $3.3 billion over five years for rights to 11 NFL Thursday Night Football games.

Whether either, neither or both approaches win the day remains to be seen. But the fundamental truth behind both moves is apparent — traditional TV audiences are shrinking and are not expected to recover soon.

Disney seemed to verify the real impact of cord-cutting when it revealed in 2015 that sports channel ESPN had lost 3.2 million subscribers in the prior 12 months, a figure that rose to a collective 13 million viewers between 2011 and 2017. Since then the losses for pay TV programmers in general have averaged about 3% to 4% per year, although some networks, such as Fox, have experienced far less erosion.

According to Pivotal Research Group senior research analyst, advertising Brian Wieser, using Nielsen Universe data, the median growth rate for Fox networks improved to -1.6% in December from -1.9% in November. Nielsen’s February estimates show an even sharper improvement (-1.2%) compared to the prior month (-1.6%). But according to the Nielsen data, Fox is one of the exceptions.

Those declines have begun to eat into affiliate-fee growth, although some networks are more affected than others. MoffettNathanson senior research analyst Michael Nathanson estimated that calendar Q4 affiliate fee growth would range from 11% at Fox to -6.9% for Viacom. Disney fees should rise about 2.5% in its fiscal Q1, while Discovery Communications and Scripps Networks should gain 3.2% and 5%, respectively.

Less Subs, Less Ad Bucks
Fewer subscribers and declining ratings (Nathanson predicts a 13% drop in primetime C3 18-49 ratings for broadcast and cable in Q4) translates into lower advertising revenue, and in the calendar fourth quarter, total national TV ad sales are expected to fall 2.7%, according to the analyst. Viacom once again is expected to show the biggest declines (-4.5%), with Disney not far behind at -3.6%.

Despite the erosion of core fundamentals, Nathanson urged investors to focus on names that have affiliate-fee pricing power, exposure to live sports and news and unique global content. “These companies are cheap and should likely hold their value when the next wave of worries come,” he wrote.

Scary Halloween-themed programming may be dead and buried until next year, but there’s still a lot of frightful content currently on cable channels featuring real-life blood, murder and mayhem — and women viewers can’t get enough of it.

True-crime reality series with such ominous titles as Fatal Vows, Homicide Hunter, Snapped and Fatal Attraction are killing with female viewers who can’t stop watching dramatic re-enactments of grisly murders committed by real-life women who make fictional horror movie characters like Freddy Kreuger and Jason Voorhees seem rational by comparison.

Witness an episode of Investigation Discovery’s docuseries Deadly Women, in which a professional female wrestler is sentenced to 759 years in prison for a series of grisly murders of mostly elderly women, committed out of a longstanding resentment felt for an unloving, abusive and mostly absent mother.

“Fiction can’t compare with human nature,” Henry Schleiff, Investigation Discovery, American Heroes Channel and Destination America group president, said. “We can’t make these stories up.”

GUILTY PLEASURE

True crime-based reality content is a guilty pleasure for women viewers, who are just as interested in the sins leading up to the crimes — such as jealousy, betrayal or infidelity — as the acts themselves or the repercussions that follow, network executives said.

“It is the ultimate drama with the ultimate stakes, and that is why it has broad appeal with women,” Rod Aissa, executive vice president of original programming and development for Oxygen Media, said. “The themes within an episode — whether it’s sin, jealousy, love or relationships — are themes that women like in their programming, and make it incredibly relatable to them.”

The true-crime reality genre is in effect an off shoot of the popular crime genre that has always drawn big audiences in mass entertainment, from TV shows to movies to books.

True crime “is a universal theme and genre ... if you look at what’s coming to a movie theater virtually every week, in addition to the tentpole action fi lm, it’s usually a movie in the crime genre,” Schleiff said. “If you look at this week’s New York Times book list, 10 of the top 15 [bestsellers] were in the mystery/suspense/crime category, so it’s not hard to see why it works on television.”

On the small screen, scripted crime procedurals such as NBC’s Law & Order franchise, CBS’s CSI and NCIS franchises and Criminal Minds, ABC’s Castle and HBO’s True Detective are popular with both men and women due to the fast-paced action, compelling storylines and attractive characters.

But it’s unscripted true crime dramas based on real crimes affecting real people that have increasing appeal specifically to women.

“Women have a unique intuition — they love the twists and turns, as well as the high stakes in emotionally compelling stories,” Schleiff said. “Most of all, they love the fact that these stories are real. This is not another scripted drama.”

That bodes well for Investigation Discovery, which produces more than 650 hours of true-crime programming each year, including such salacious titles as Wives With Knives, Who the (Bleep) Did I Marry? and Southern Fried Homicide. The network’s true-crime focus has helped make ID the most watched cable network among adult women (age 25-54) for September on a Nielsen live-plus-three-day basis, according to ID.

Catchy show titles and top-name talent — such stars as Roseanne Barr (Momsters), Susan Lucci (Deadly Affairs) and Wendy Williams (Death by Gossip) host shows on the networks, and Barbara Walters's American Scandal With Barbara Walters premieres tonight (Nov. 2)  — are the secret to ID’s success, according to Schleiff.

The network even has a social-media website dubbed IDaddicts.com, in which mostly female viewers talk about their “addiction” to ID’s programming. “It’s not unusual for viewers to watch three, four and five hours of ID at a time,” Schleiff said.

Another long-running show, Oxygen’s Snapped — which features women who have killed or maimed their spouses and lovers — has been successful because it showcases all the elements of a crime so that viewers can determine who is ultimately responsible, according to Aissa. Now in its 11th year, Snapped remains one of Oxygen’s most-watched programs and has spawned a pair of spinoff s: Snapped: Killer Couples and Snapped: She Made Me Do It.

“While the crimes more often than not are very dark, the nature or why they got to the point of where they have appeal to women viewers,” Aissa said. “It’s all rooted in themes of love and relationships — there’s usually a sense of a love gone wrong, of some kind of betrayal, or a longing for a better life. Watching those things go bad has appeal.”

Viewers also have a need to see justice meted out to the perpetrators — whether that comes from the police or those affected by the crime — D’Angela Proctor, head of original programming and production at TV One. The network’s Fatal Attraction, which profiles true life stories of women whose lives are ruined by the men they love, always ends with the bad guy going to jail, she said.

Not surprisingly, women make up more than 60% of Fatal Attraction’s audience, per TV One.

“What these true-crime dramas give you is a sense that there is justice in the world and that all can be right,” Proctor said.

Added Oxygen’s Aissa: “What women love is that there is an outcome and justice is served — someone is held responsible for someone’s murder, and that’s complete satiation for viewers. It’s empowering to watch justice get done.”

ID’s Schleiff also said the shows provide opportunities for women to learn what to do — and more importantly what not to do — when faced with situations depicted in the shows.

“[Viewers] feel that they can learn something, whether it’s through a show about stalking or whether we do a show about crime on the Internet,” he said. “Not everything we do is going to have a morality lesson, but there is a huge amount of learning that comes out of these shows.”

A&E’s The First 48 Hours tackles the desperate hunt for a killer, based on evidence found at the crime scene, over a two-day period. One of the longest-running true-crime series, the show — now in its 14th season — ranks as the top nonfiction crime/justice series on cable, averaging 1.4 million viewers.

“It’s that kind of play-along fun of solving something, versus just an action-oriented program that has a female appeal,” Elaine Frontain Bryant, executive vice president of programming for A&E, said. “Also, the authentic nature in which we tell the stories makes you feel like you are there along with it.”

Executives said there’s no end in sight to the genre, as female viewers in particular continue to gravitate to the strange but alluring mix of emotion, blood, death and justice. TV One later this year will debut a new series, Justice by Any Means, which spotlights people who take matters into their own hands to get justice for their loved ones, according to Proctor.

Oxygen’s Aissa said the network is looking at other opportunities to play in a genre in an effort to target younger female viewers, but would not reveal specifics.

PLENTY OF FODDER

With the amount of salacious headlines generated everyday around the world, ID’s Schlieff said there will always be an appetite for true-crime stories on television.

“Just pick up a consumer newspaper, and I guarantee you that there’s a front-page or second-page story in this genre,” he said. “We have a $3 billion marketing budget that comes from the incredible support we get from all of the newspapers and the magazines in the world who write about a crime, and to the extent they promote it, they’re also promoting our network and the genre.”

RATINGS CHARTS

Crime Pays

Reality shows based on true crime have been a ratings magnet for Investigation Discovery in its appeal to women aged 18-34. With 653 hours of original programming dedicated to the genre, the network is No. 3 in the demo this year on a total-day basis, behind USA Network and HGTV.

Network                       Women 18-34 Viewers (000)
USA Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
HGTV . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
Investigation Discovery . . . . . . . . . 206
Adult Swim . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
TNT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Nick at Nite . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Nickelodeon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 178
TBS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Food Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
Disney Channel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158

SOURCE: Nielsen

Reality’s Most Wanted

A snapshot of how several true-crime reality series on basic cable stack up within the female 25-54 demo:

Program                          Network                       Viewers *
The First 48 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A&E. . . . . . . . . . . . .424
Nightwatch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . A&E. . . . . . . . . . . . . 370
Homicide Hunter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ID . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 313
Fatal Vows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ID . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 261
Snapped . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Oxygen . . . . . . . . . . . 161
Snapped: Killer Couples . . . . . . . . . . Oxygen . . . . . . . . . . . 141
For My Man . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TV One . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Fatal Attraction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . TV One . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Snapped: She Made Me Do It . . . . . . . Oxygen . . . . . . . . . . . .71
* Women viewers 25-54 on a live-plus-same-day basis, in thousands

SOURCE: Nielsen

TBS, led by its Major League Baseball post-season coverage, hit a ratings home run last week, according to Nielsen.

The network was the most watched cable service in primetime during the week of Oct. 12 through Oct. 18, averaging 4.6 million viewers – much of that coming on the strength of its MLB playoffs coverage. TBS is currently on a record ratings pace for for its post-season baseball coverage, averaging 5.9 million viewers.

ESPN was second with 3.2 million viewers, followed by CNN, which averaged 2.2 million watchers for the week -- due in large part to its Oct. 13 coverage of the Democratic Presidential debate, which drew more than 15 million viewers.

Disney Channel finished fourth with 1.6 million viewers, followed by a fifth place tie between Fox News and USA Network, each averaging 1.5 million viewers.

AMC and Discovery Channel (tied with 1.3 million viewers); HGTV (1.2 million) and History and FX (tied with 1.1 million) rounded out the top 10 most watched networks for the week.

TBS was also the top cable network on a 24-hour basis, as well as among key demos including advertiser-coveted adults 18-49, said Nielsen.

Most Watched Shows For Week Of Oct. 12 to Oct. 18

DateTelecastNetworkTotal Viewers

10/13           Nevada Democratic Presidential Debate                     CNN                15.7 million

10/13           Democratic Presidential Debate Pre-Show                  CNN                12.6 million

10/13           Democratic Presidential Debate Post-Show                CNN                12.6 million

10/18           The Walking Dead                                                        AMC                12.1 million

10/12           MNF – Pittsburgh-San Diego                                       ESPN               12.1 million

10/17           MLB NLCS – Chicago Cubs-N.Y. Mets (Gm. 1)          TBS                   7.8 million     

10/17           College Football –Michigan St.-Michigan                    ESPN                 7.3 million

10/15           MLB NLDS – L.A. Dodgers – New York Mets             TBS                   7.3 million

10/17           College Football – Florida-LSU                                   TBS                   6.7 million

10/18           MLB NLCS – Chicago Cubs-N.Y. Mets (Gm. 2)          TBS                   6.5 million

Source: Nielsen