BTIG media analyst Rich Greenfield has long warned that the traditional programming model was eroding more rapidly than the industry thinks, telling traditional programmers that if they don’t do a deal quickly, they may be too late. While that stance has led to varied and emotional response from content companies, recent deals seem to show that at least some programming execs may have been listening.

“Over the past 10 months, industry fundamentals have eroded with it becoming increasingly clear to investors that the era of cable networks’ over-earning at the expense of the consumer is coming to a screeching halt,” Greenfield wrote in a blog Wednesday.

After AT&T’s blockbuster announcement to purchase Time Warner for $108.7 billion in stock, cash and assumed debt, the floodgates were expected to open with programmers all seeking a way out of what is a rapidly changing business. That didn’t happen but there have been some deals – Lionsgate’s $4.4 billion buy of Starz and last week, Discovery Communications’ $14.6 billion agreement to purchase Scripps Networks Interactive. Greenfield pointed to the heavy cash components of some of those deals – AT&T/Time Warner at 50%; and Discovery/Scripps at 70% -- as an indication that programmers are losing faith in the future.

Now, that might not seem to be entirely fair. Discovery and Scripps, for their part, have said their deal is a means to secure continued strong affiliate fee increases and could lay the groundwork for a future direct-to-consumer offering, much like what Greenfield and other analysts have been proposing for other programmers. And AT&T-Time Warner hasn't been completed yet, so there is still a chance for that deal.   

But historically, companies make all-stock acquisitions for two reasons – tax implications and a hope that as the stock rises the deal is worth more down the road. Taking mostly cash usually means that you don’t believe that the stock is going to appreciate. Or, if you're an individual, you won't be around long enough to see it appreciate.

Not to say all those all-stock deals were good -- AOL’s purchase of Time Warner Inc. in 2000, anyone? – but they were struck with an optimistic eye toward the horizon. That seems to have disappeared as programmers struggle with rapidly changing viewership trends, declining advertising and declining subscribers.

“Lack of confidence in the future is clearly driving a strong desire for cash-heavy exits,” Greenfield wrote. “Now the question is should everyone head for the exit and who will try to scale up to temporarily mitigate the secular challenges facing the legacy media industry?”

For Greenfield, the next steps should involve laundry list of programmers, but the most interesting in my book involve Disney, Fox, and AMC. I encourage you to investigate his blog to get the details.

Greenfield has been a staunch critic of Disney and its falling ESPN subscribers, but at this point he believes only the biggest tech giants can afford a deal, and they’re not biting. Instead, he sees Disney making a “series of strategic acquisitions in the coming year to diversify away from cable networks and build direct-to-consumer relationships and data on their consumers.”

At Fox, Greenfield hopes they will follow Time Warner’s lead and be acquired, but given Murdoch family control, he doesn’t expect that to happen. Fox has instead focused on consolidating it’s U.K. satellite company Sky – still winding through the approval process.

Smaller programmers like AMC, he noted, have done some interesting content deals with YouTube TV, Charter and Comcast, but Greenfield sees them as more a seller than buyer. For MSG Networks, the analyst expects it will be the same, more likely as a tuck-in acquisition for Fox, Comcast or another distributor with exposure to the NY market.

Perhaps the most interesting Greenfield scenario is for Comcast/NBCUniversal. Greenfield notes that NBCU made a mid-sized content purchase -- DreamWorks Animation for about $4 billion in 2016 – but he has higher hopes.

“Given the unique regulatory environment, we continue to believe Comcast should attempt an M&A Hail Mary by trying to buy Charter and if they want to focus on smaller deals with less regulatory risk, Spotify, Twitter and MGM would all be at the top of our lists,” he wrote.

Entertainment, Media and Communications sector deal values nearly doubled in the second quarter to $76 billion from  $39 billion in the prior period, according to a report by PricewaterhouseCoopers, driven by transformative deals in the Cable ($63 billion), Internet & Information ($6 billion) and Communications ($3 billion) spaces.

Despite Comcast’s decision to abandon its purchase of Time Warner Cable in April, Charter Communications’ decision to step back up to the plate and agree to acquire TWC in a deal the consulting giant values at $56 billion (not including debt) and Verizon’s $4.4 billion purchase of AOL.

Mega-deals once again dominated the list – the seven mega-deals in the quarter accounted for 94% of the deal volume in the period.

Despite the apparent return of the mega-deal, which PwC defines as deals valued at more than $1 billion, the consulting firm was encouraged by what it called the resurgence of smaller, ore innovation-driven transactions.

“…We continue to see innovation and transformation as key drivers of M&A in the sector,” PwC Partner, Entertainment,Media & Communications Deals, Bart Spiegel said in a statement. “When coupled with shareholder pressure on companies to deliver ongoing growth, we anticipate that M&A activity will continue to be robust as we enter the second half of the year.”

The cable sector again dominated the space in terms of total value, with four deals totaling $63 billion. Leading that sector was the Charter-TWC deal, followed by Liberty Broadband’s $4.3 billion purchase of Charter stock (which will assist in financing the TWC purchase) and European telecom giant Altice’s purchase of a 70% interest in Suddenlink Communications, which PwC values at $2.9 billion (again, minus debt assumption.)

The advertising and marketing sector, perennial champs in deal volume, continued that streak in the second quarter with 57 deals valued at $1.2 billion, followed by publishing (37 deals), Internet & Information (28 deals) and Communications (27 deals).

While volumes were down slightly in the ad sector in the period – compared to 60 deals in the first quarter – PwC said there was a rise in the number of transactions involving digital/online focused advertising companies, which accounted for more than 25% of announced deals (up from 20% in Q1’15). According to PwC’s Global Entertainment & Media Outlook: 2015-2019, Internet based advertising is projected to surpass TV advertising by 2018.

After a slow start in Q1, deal volumes in the Communications sector were up more than 50% in the second quarter with 27 deals announced – one of the biggest risers in deal volume of all the EMC sectors. While announced deal values were down compared to $16B in Q1’15, overall deal value remained in the billions as two megadeals in Q2 2015 represented almost the entire $3B of deal value.

Internet & Information services announced deal volumes fell from 42 in Q1 2015 to 28 in Q2 2015 – the sub-sector’s lowest quarterly total in recent history. While volumes lagged to 28 deals from 42 in Q1, deal value increased to $6.25 billion from $2.4 billion in the first quarter, buoyed by two megadeals – Verizon-AOL and LinkedIn Corp’s $1.5 billion acquisition of online education provider Lynda.com.

Broadcast station M&A rose 30% in the first quarter, with total transactions valued at $3.33 billion in the first quarter, according to SNL Kagan.

The first quarter tally was driven by Media General’s plans to merge with LIN Media in a deal valued at $2.6 billion, including debt.  The 9 times forward looking cash flow valuation on that deal helped drive overall multiples in the quarter to 8.9 times cash flow in the period. Without the Media General deal, the TV multiple would have been 8.5 times, which is still 0.3 points higher than 2013's average, according to SNL Kagan.

In addition the Media General deal, other big transactions in the period included the $364 million sale of Post-Newsweek's WPLG in Miami to Berkshire Hathaway,  and the $190 million sale of nine stations from Quincy Newspapers Inc. and Sagamore Hill Broadcasting to Granite Broadcasting Corp. and Malara Broadcast Group.

According to SNL Kagan, about 107 TV stations traded hands in the period. The average TV station price in the quarter was $31.1 million.