A stronger-than-expected U.S. advertising market and special events meant smaller declines in national TV ad revenues in the second quarter, according to media agency Magna, which boosted its full-year ad spending forecast for 2024.

National television/video revenues fell 1.1% in Q2. That included a 6.4% drop for linear networks and a 19.6% increase for ad-supported video-on-demand, connected TV and free ad-supported streaming television (FAST). 

For 2024, Magna forecasts that national TV will finish down 1.7%, an improvement from Magna’s earlier forecast of a 3% decline. Linear networks will be down 6.8% while AVOD, CTV and FAST will be up 19.3%.

Local TV is expected to be up 25.4% in 2024 including cyclical events, and down 3.9% excluding cyclical events.

For all media, Magna sees ad revenues including cyclical events as rising by 11.4% (the previous forecast was 10.7%) and up 8.9% excluding cyclical events (the earlier forecast was 8.2%). That would mark the strongest growth rate in 20 years.

Those cyclical events will bring in $10 billion in incremental ad sales in 2024. The election will add a record $9 billion to media owners. Magna estimates NBCUniversal’s ad sales during the Paris Olympic Games at $1.5 billion, including $1.1 billion for linear and $400 million for digital and streaming.

On the digital side, ad revenue rose 16% in the first half of 2024. Magna noted that Meta and Google credited AI tools with driving incremental spending.

For the full year, digital pure-play ad revenue is expected to be up 14.2% in 2024.

Magna also forecasts that the ad market will remain strong in 2025.

Overall, noncyclical ad spending will grow 6.3% to $291 billion in 2025, Magna said, while sales including cyclical events, like the Olympics and elections, will rise only 3.9%. 

National television sales will drop 2.7% while local television sales will underperform and decline 3.6% (excluding election spending) in 2025.

Digital pure players will again drive the market, growing 9.3% to $289 billion, while traditional media owners will erode by 1.5% to $102 billion.

Digital revenues are expected to be up 8.7% in 2025.

In 2026, the ad market should top $400 billion, the agency said.

Despite an improving economic outlook, media buyer Magna forecasts that weakness of linear networks will result in national TV ad revenues falling 4.7% to $44.2 billion in 2024.

Magna sees spending on linear networks dropping 8.8% to $34.2 billion, while streaming, including ad supported video on demand, connected TV and free ad-supported streaming television is expected to jump 12.9% to hit the $10 billion mark, accounting for 22% of national TV ad market.

Streaming growth will be buttressed by Amazon adding commercials to Amazon Prime Video, Magna said.

Cyclical events will have a big impact on 2024, with the presidential election generating  about $9 billion in additional ad revenue (up 13% from 2020) and the Olympics about $1 billion. Magna cut its estimate for political spending from its previous forecast of 18% growth from 2020 because of a slowdown in candidate fundraising.

Magna said linear TV continues to struggle from eroding reach and poor ratings. 

“This is despite the resilience of sports and tentpole events so far this year and eroding pricing power as brands diversify their video budgets towards streaming and digital media. However, when including cyclical spending, total cross platform ad sales will drop by just 2%, thanks to incremental viewing and ad spending around the Olympic games,” Magna said.. 

Magna sees local TV spending growing 25.6% to $23.2 billion including the Olympics and presidential year political advertising. Excluding cyclical spending, local TV is seen dipping 3.8%.

Magna says that in the fourth quarter of 2023, non-cyclical ad revenues across all media grew by 9.1% in the fourth quarter of 2023, the strongest quarterly growth in almost two years. Full year ad market growth was 5.7% in 2023.

Across all media including cyclical events, U.S. ad spending is expected to be up 9.2% to $369.1 billion.   Excluding cyclical spending. The U.S. ad market will grow 6.7% to $359.8 billion.

That’s stronger than Magna’s previous outlook.

“Several factors led Magna to increase its U,S, ad market growth forecast,” said Vincent Létang, executive VP, global market intelligence at Magna.

“That includes an improved macroeconomic outlook with GDP growth raised from 1.7% to 2.4% in the last few months, the momentum of digital media formats: social media, retail media, and streaming. The latter is driven by a strong expansion in the reach and marketing opportunities offered by ad-supported streaming," Létang said. "That leads Magna to raise the non-cyclical growth forecast to 6.7%. We are slightly reducing the forecast for cyclical spending (due to a slowdown in political fund-raising) but, overall, we now expect total media owner ad sales to grow by 9.2% this year (compared to 8.4% in our previous update) to reach $369 billion.”

Pure play digital media is expected to absorb much of the spending increases. Including cyclical spending, digital media will grow 12% to 263.3 million. Excluding cyclical spending, spending on digital media will be up 11.7% to $260.9 billion, Magna forecasts.

Short-form pure-play digital video (think YouTube) is expected to see 12.2% growth to $22 billion. Social media ad spending is seen increasing 13.4% to $80.4 billion.

Magna, the investment and intelligence arm of media buyer IPG Mediabrands, said it will be working with advanced advertising company OpenAP to plan and measure advanced audience campaigns across screens and platforms using the Open ID identifier and the new direct integration of Acxiom into OpenAP’s data hub.

Magna will be able to plan and monitor campaigns across multiple networks and publishers with ads running on linear networks and connected TV. 

The use of OpenAP’s capabilities will enable Magna to reduce waste and overlaps throughout the flight of a campaign as clients approach next year’s upfront market.

“We think this helps our clients have an unbiased view of planning insights and holistic campaign performance across both linear CTV and programmatic endpoints, regardless of any of the newer currencies that we’ve been using,” Larene Mantel, VP, Strategic Investment at Magna, told Broadcasting+Cable.

“We’re excited about this because there’s also an Acxiom direct connection,” Mantel said. 

Magna clients will get a holistic view of campaign reporting, rather than getting silos reports, which will help control frequency over the flight of the campaign.

Acxiom data is being made available centrally through OpenAP across linear, digital, streaming and programmatic channels.

“Buyers have more choices than ever before going into the next upfront cycle with multiple new currencies and data sources, all while managing the complexities of fragmentation of audiences across publisher endpoints,” Abbey Thomas, chief revenue officer at OpenAP, said.

“By leaning into a common identifier to unify campaigns across publishers, platforms and currencies, Magna is modeling the way for how to navigate an incredibly complex media buying landscape and future-proofing their investments as we migrate to privacy-centric clean-room technology with Acxiom in the OpenAP Data Hub,” Thomas said.

The U.S. ad market showed improvement in the second quarter, but the main beneficiary was digital advertising, leaving the outlook for linear TV ad spending stagnant, Magna, the forecasting and intelligence unit of IPG Mediabrands, said.

With the signs of recovery, Magna upgraded its forecast for 2023 ad spending to forecast for all media to 5.2% from its previous forecast of 4.2%. But Magna said that traditional media owners will see revenue down 3.6% in 2023, while pure-play digital media companies will see a gain of 9.6% compared to the earlier forecast of 7.9%.

Magna painted a similar picture for 2024, with digital media gaining and traditional outlets stuck in the mud.

In the first half of 2023, nonlinear streaming TV ad sales — ad supported VOD, connected TV and free, ad-supported streaming television channels — grew by 7%, Magna said. “But so far, the attractiveness of these new formats for consumers and advertising is just mitigating, not offsetting, the long-term decline of traditional linear formats in audience and ad sales,” Magna said in its report.

Magna pegs 2023 national TV advertising spending as falling 3.9%, unchanged from the previous forecast, with linear networks down 7%, compared to 6% in the earlier forecast, and ad-supported video-on-demand, connected TV and free, ad-supported TV (FAST) rising 11.7%, up from 7.2% in the earlier forecast.

Pure-play digital media outlets are expected to finish 2023 up 9.6%, an upward revision from 7.9%, with digital video rising 5.9% from 4.3%.

“Six months ago, the media industry was bracing for recession, but advertisers kept calm and continued to support their brands and sales through media investment,” Magna executive VP, global market intelligence Vincent Létang said. “As the U.S. economy and advertising spending were both stronger than expected so far this year, and digital media is finally recovering from its 2022 woes, Magna raises its full-year ad revenue growth forecast to +5.2% for 2023 to reach $337 billion.”

For 2024, excluding special events like the Olympics and the election, Magna sees all U.S. ad spending rising 5.6%, compared to the previous forecast of 5%. 

Including the Olympics and elections, ad spending is expected to increase 8%, up from 7.3%.

Magna sees national TV down 3.2% in 2024, a bigger drop than the 2.2% decline forecast earlier. Linear networks’ accounts are expected to shrink 6.6%, while AVOD, CTV and FAST grow 11.3%. 

In its previous forecast, Magna saw linear dropping 5.9% and AVOD, CTV and FAST up 14.3% for 2024.

Local TV ad revenues are expected to grow by 28% compared to 2023, thanks to an incremental $5.7 billion generated by political demand and induced spot inflation.

Magna sess pure-play digital media rising 9.8% in 2024, up from the prior forecast of 8.7%, with short-form, pure-play video up 9.1%, compared to the prior forecast of 9.7%.

The U.S. video advertising business is weaker than expected, according to media agency Magna, which released an updated forecast.

Video revenue is expected to snap back next year, with the Olympics and an election bringing in incremental dollars.

For video advertising, ad revenues are expected to fall to $84 billion in 2023, down 7.9% from 2022, a bigger drop than the 5.2% Magna decline forecast last year.

Revenue for national TV networks is seen falling 5.3% to $38.3 billion (Magna’s previous forecast was for a 6.8% drop) and local TV is seen plunging 22.4% in a non-election year, compared to Magna’s earlier forecast of a 21.4% decline.

While traditional TV is down, ad-supported streaming VOD and connected-TV revenues are expected to rise 7.2% in 2023. That increase is much smaller than the 21.2% jump Magna forecasted earlier.

For 2024, Magna sees video ad revenue increasing 7.2% with national TV networks seeing a 2.9% decline while local TV rebounds to a 22.4% gain. 

AVOD and CTV are expected to increase 14.3% in 2024.

Magna said that in 2024 “economic stabilization and the return of major cyclical events (U.S. presidential elections, Paris Olympics, Euro Football championship) will re-accelerate ad spend: 6.1% to $892 billion globally, and 7.3% in the US. Traditional media owners’ ad revenues will recover by 1% while digital pure players’ ad sales will increase by 8.”

Retail media betworks are expected to generate $121 billion in advertising sales this year (up 12%), “The bulk of these ad sales will come from e-commerce pure players, but traditional retailers are developing their media capabilities and their advertising sales will grow by +24% to reach $21 billion,” Magna said.

Cross-platform national long-form video advertising is expected to grow 1% to $43.8 billion in 2023, according to a new forecast from media agency Magna.

Magna predicted the organic growth of streaming — both ad-supported video on demand and free ad-supported streaming television (FAST) channels — growing by 21.2%, nearly offsetting the organic decline and weaker pricing of linear ad sales. 

Linear ad revenue is expected to drop 5%, Magna said, with national TV networks down 6.7%.

Meanwhile, local television will suffer from the off-year election cycle plus a 5% drop in non-political ad revenues. Together, that will leave local advertising down 21.4.% from record levels in 2022.

Short-form video revenues are expected to increase by 9.7%.

Digital media revenues, including search and social, are expected to increase 8.1%, with search up 10.2% and social growing 6.4%.

Overall, Magna sees total media revenue growth to be 3.4% in 2023 including cyclical spending on the elections and sporting events like the Olympics and World Cup.  That’s slightly slower growth than the 3.7% increase Magna forecast for 2023 in December.

Excluding cyclical items, media revenue is expected to increase 5.2%. 

Magna said the media outlook is being impacted by mixed economic signals, including slow gross domestic product growth, slowing inflation and a resilient job market. Meanwhile, financial turbulence is generating anxiety among consumers and businesses.

“In a similar economic climate, 10 or 20 years ago, the U.S. advertising market would almost certainly fall off a cliff,” said Vincent Létang, executive VP, global market research at Magna.

“Things are different in 2023 because of media innovation fueling marketing demand,” Létang said. “The organic drivers that boosted the ad market in 2021 and the first half of 2022 are still around and mitigating the impact of stressful economic signals. Such organic drivers include the rise of retail media networks which are redirecting billions of marketing budgets dollars into advertising formats. In addition, with long-form OTT streaming going mainstream and increasingly ad-supported, brands finally find cost-effective solutions to reconnect with audiences that had become hard and expensive to reach through linear television.” ■

Running a commercial next to the wrong video content can sink a brand, according to a new study by media buyer Magna working with Channel Factory.

The study, The Art of Alignment, which surveyed consumers in the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, found that when an advertisement appears in content that is questionable, its message can fail to stick with the consumer and its ability to persuade is diminished. And what is appropriate for one brand may not be appropriate for another. 

The study goes beyond simply avoiding all categories of content, such as news, as a way to judge the proper environment for ads. 

“Ad environments that fall into grey areas require careful judgment calls be made by brands and their agencies,” said Joshua Lowcock, global chief media officer at UM, which, like Magna, is part of IPG’s media operation. “There isn’t always a one-size-fits-all solution, as misaligned content for one brand could be a smart, underleveraged opportunity for another. Put differently, what’s right for one brand isn’t always right for another.”

Also: Magna Study Finds New Roku Ad Formats Draw Better Results

Consumers hold brands accountable for content, the study found. In the U.S., 41% of those surveyed agreed that the brand is supporting the content simply by being adjacent to it.

When the content falls in the gray area, in terms of appropriateness, there was only a 3% increase in message association, compared to a 12% increase in standard content, the study found. The lift in purchase intent dropped to 4% in gray content from 10% in standard content and the growth in search intent dropped to 6% from 11%.

The effect on brands varies from brand to brand and category to category. Among the most sensitive categories are toys and financial services. Less sensitive were beverages and quick-service brands.

Younger consumers are likely to be most affected by the appropriateness of content in which ads appear. Purchase intent dropped 8% for millennials and 6% for Gen Zers, compared to just 2% for Gen Xers.

Questionable content adjacent to ads with 45% of respondents disagreeing with the appropriateness of content in B-to-B ads for financial services brands, compared to 38% for business-to-consumer financial services brands. 

“Similar to how brands have always made decisions about where to buy print ads or place their billboards, we believe brands buying media placements in online video should have the same rigor, and this study proves out how important alignment is,” Channel Factory senior VP marketing Lauren Douglass said. “Especially with younger audiences, consumers are sensitive to what content a brand is running alongside, as they believe the brand is proactively supporting that video. Advertisers who are thoughtful about the content they support will be more successful from a perception and purchase intent perspective.”

The study recruited 5,800 participants who were regular users of a popular social media video app. They were driven to a controlled mobile version of the app to watch content with randomly delivered ads. A post-exposure survey was used to measure the brand impact. ■

Media buyer Magna and Roku said their research shows that new, more entertaining and engaging commercial formats create better results for advertisers.

As advertisers move to streaming, they are looking to take advantage of digital technology to create ads that are more innovative than traditional 30-second commercials.

Magna’s research unit, Magna Media Trials, working with brands including T-Mobile, Subaru and Tonal, looked at three formats developed by Roku and found that they lift ad recall, brand favorability and intent to search.

The three formats tested were:

• Thematic Tagged Vignette: A 30-second animated ad where a brand celebrates streaming.
• Roku Original Vignette: A 30-second ad where a brand references the Roku Original show being streamed.
• Watch Alongs: Ad breaks where a brand sponsors discussion about the show or movie being streamed. 

As a group, the new formats increase top-of-mind ad recall by 57% compared to traditional ads, lifted brand favorability by 8% and intent to search by 16%. 

The Thematic Brand Vignettes were good at generating attention with 65% of respondents saying the spots “taught me something new.” The Roku Original Vignette tripled the purchase intent of traditional ads, with a 10% lift. Watch Alongs improved recall by 66% versus 39% for traditional ads.

“In the current advertising environment, it is important to recognize that viewers can easily skip over advertising, but our study found they are less likely to do so if the ads are as entertaining as the programming and present a more enjoyable experience,” said Kara Manatt, executive VP and managing director, intelligence solutions at Magna. “One of the most memorable formats for viewers is Watch Alongs, likely because the advertiser is offering the viewer added value to the show they are watching.”

Magna Media Trials and Roku found that viewers are craving new ad experiences on streaming TV, with 94% saying that enhancement can improve the ad experience for them and increase potential returns for brands. The new format all worked better than traditional ads, creating more brand awareness and moving the viewer closer to purchase.

“Better TV storytelling for brands starts with Roku,” said Asaf Davidov, director, head of ad measurement and research at Roku. “The takeaway for marketers is clear — the key to winning the entire streamers’ journey is surprising and delighting beyond the traditional TV spot.”

The research utilized an at-home panel of 1,316 viewers that was divided into randomized exposed and control groups. ■

Media buyer Mediabrands’ Magna unit issued a more bearish forecast for advertising revenue in 2023, predicting spending on national TV networks will drop by 6.4%, while ad-supported VOD and over-the-top video increases by 31.6%.

In its previous forecast Magna in June said it expected ad revenue for national TV networks to fall by 5.8% and AVOD/OTT to rise 32.7%.

Overall Magna sees video ad revenues down 4.4 % (compared to its previous forecast of 3.1%) with long-form video down 8.3% and short-form video up 10.4%

Magna said the growth in broadcaster AVOD is not enough to offset the lack of political spending in a non-election year.

Local TV, which takes in the most political advertising, is expected to be down 22.9% in 2023, Magna said.

The weaker ad forecast reflects macro economic trends in addition to political cyclicality.

"The U.S. economy has been sluggish for most of the year, even before the Ukraine war, and will remain slow through at least mid-2023 (fiscal year gross domestic product growth 0.7%), while consumer confidence has hit a 20-year low (index 55) and inflation a 40-year high (8%). On the bright side, the job market is expected to hold next year (unemployment 4.2%) and inflation is expected to slow to just +3%," Magna noted in its report.

Total U.S. advertising revenues are expected to be up 3.7% for 2023, compared to a previous forecast of 4.8% growth. Excluding cyclical factors including political spending and the Olympics, revenues will be up 5.8% (the earlier forecast was 6.8%).

Pure plays digital ad revenues are seen increasing 8.1%, according to Magna.

Magna is expecting several advertiser categories to show flat or decreasing advertising spending in 2023: Consumer packaged goods and finance will be among the verticals most negatively affected. Entertainment/media, travel and betting will continue to grow under organic factors, while automotive may finally grow again as supply issues gradually improve, Magna said.

Globally, Magna pegs TV revenue down 3.6% in 2023.

"Television continues to suffer from the long-term erosion of linear reach and live viewing (time spent and ratings decreases between 5% to -5% per year depending on targets and markets), still not fully offset by rising audiences and ad sales on non-traditional platforms or formats," Magna said.

Cross-platform television ad revenues grew by 1.7% in 2022 to $172 billion but will decrease by 4% in 2023, Magna said.

"To mitigate audience erosion and weaker demand from key industry verticals television companies can count on a few strengths and drivers," Magna said. Those drivers included strong growth for non-traditional ad sales including AVOD and linear addressable, resilient pricing, and rising concerns about brand safety and media responsibility. Sports audiences also continue to be large, attracting spending by advertisers.

Magna’s global ad forecast calls for a 5% increase to $830 billion revenues for 2023. The growth will be lower than the 7% increase seen in 2023 and 1.5 percentage points smaller than Magna forecast in June. ■

Media agency Magna Global forecasts that video advertising revenue will drop 3.1% next year, with gains in connected TV and other forms of over-the-top and ad supported VOD offset by declining spending on national linear TV.

Magna sees national linear TV falling 5.8% in 2023, following a projected 3.3% drop in 2022. So far in the first half 2022, national linear ad revenue is up 2.4%. 

National AVOD, OTT and CTV are expected to jump 32.7% in 2023, when Netflix and Disney Plus will be selling commercials on their previously ad-free services. For 2022, Magna is expecting CTV to be up 22.1% after an 18.3% increase in the first half. 

“While the two new offerings may take ad budgets from other media properties [AVOD or linear TV], Magna believes these new offerings will ‘grow the pie’ rather than cannibalize existing budgets or incumbent vendors like Hulu, Peacock, Paramount Plus and FAST channels, which will continue to grow,” Magna said in the report.

Magna also sees retail media network revenue increasing to $42 billion in 2023 from $31 billion in 2022. 

In a non-election year, local TV is expected to plunge 22.1%, giving back the 22.3% increase seen for 2022. In the first half, local TV ad revenue was up 14%. 

“The bulk of it comes from Amazon’s product search but all other large retailers are now developing advertising sales through keyword search or display ads on their apps and websites,” the media buyer notes.

For all advertising, U.S. revenue is expected to grow 4.8% including special events like the Olympics and elections. (Magna sees a 6.8% jump with those specials excluded.)

“Following a strong first half, non-cyclical advertising spending is slowing down as several industries are facing an uncertain economic environment,” said Vincent Létang, executive VP, global market intelligence at Magna.

“There are several growth factors that will help stabilize media owner ad revenues in coming months,” he added, ticking off political advertising, retail media, technology innovation and advertising on Disney Plus and Netflix. ■

Media agency Magna Global reduced its forecast for U.S. advertising spending because of the from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Magna now expects U.S. ad spending to increase 11.5% to $320 billion. Its original forecast was for 12.6% growth. The war in Ukraine has exacerbated supply chain issues and inflationary pressures.

National TV revenues, which Magna defines as cross-platform national long-form video, will be down about 1%. Traditional TV ad sales will be down about 5%, while ad-supported video on demand, over-the-top and connected TV revenues will jump 27%.

Local TV will be getting a huge boost from the midterm elections. Magna estimates that media owners will generate $6.2 billion in incremental advertising revenue from political campaigns, up 41% from 2018 (that’s up from the previous forecast of a 31% increase). Local TV will get $4.2 billion of that, up 26% from 2018, while digital media gets $1.45 billion.

Also: Magna Sees U.S. Long-Form Video Ad Revenue Rising 4% in 2022

Overall, local TV ad revenues are expected to grow 16% in 2022, according to Magna.

“The Ukraine crisis has already hit consumer and business confidence. It will slow down economic growth in 2022 and fuel the inflationary trend. It is too early to assess the depth and length of economic repercussions, but Magna believes the U.S. economy is strong enough to weather this new challenge,” said Vincent Létang, executive VP, global market intelligence at Magna. 

“Looking at marketing and advertising, the macro-economic headwind will be mitigated by continued organic drivers (innovation, emerging verticals, ecommerce) and stronger-than-expected political fundraising (leading to at least $6 billion in incremental ad spend),” Létang said. “Balancing all factors, Magna reduces its 2022 advertising revenue growth forecast by one percentage point, as media owners’ ad revenues will grow by 11% this year to pass the $300 billion milestone for the first time”.

Technology, telecoms, entertainment, travel and betting are among the categories expected to grow faster than average, while automotive continues to struggle with supply chain issues.

Magna sees digital media growing 16% in 2022. Search is seen increasing by 17% and social will be up 16%. ■

Media agency Magna said it will hold its second Equity Upfront April 5 through April 7.

The event is designed to get brands together with diverse-owned media companies. Magna, part of IPG’s MediaBrands unit, has announced its commitment to invest 5% of its spending in Black-owned media by 2023.

Media companies participating include Allen Media Group, Ebony Media, ReachTV, Revolt, Group Black, Urban Edge Network, NuTime Media and Black Enterprise.

Also: Busy Byron Allen Wants To Be Big, but Doesn’t Want To Be a Unicorn

The theme of this year’s event is Invest for Impact. During the event Magna will release research on the Black American consumer. The research shows that representation and addressing stereotypes are important in making video content culturally relevant. 

“We are thrilled to be working together with Magna and MediaBrands to bring bold and brilliant conversations about issues that matter most in Black communities, to brand marketers,” said Michele Ghee, CEO at Ebony & Jet. “At Ebony, we are committed to telling stories – for us and by us – and those important life moments that matter and contribute to the American fabric. Our partnership with Mediabrands has shown that brands care about real impact in Black communities.”

The Equity Upfront will also have media companies owned by members of the Hispanic, Asian American Pacific Islander and LGBTQIA+ communities.

Also: Disney’s Rita Ferro Aims To Triple Upfront Diversity Commitments

“After last year’s inaugural Equity Upfront, we pledged to invest a minimum of 5% in Black-owned media to reverse long-standing inequities in the advertising industry,” said Dani Benowitz, president, U.S., at Magna.

“We’re very happy to report that since then, Magna has added new bespoke partnerships that extend to innovative integrated marketing programs and content solutions. We remain committed to creating more breakthrough opportunities and using our audience insights and consultative reach to support diverse-owned media suppliers in impactful ways,” Benowitz said. ■

Nielsen said it launched the initial, alpha interation of Nielsen One, its new TV measurement system, with Magna and other ad agencies and media companies including The Walt Disney Co.

The first capability of Nielsen One that will be on display will be its deduplicated cross-platform ad measurement capability. Nielsen will demonstrate its deduplicating system at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas next month.

Nielsen plans to add more features to Nielsen One before a full launch in December of 2022.

After years as the leader in TV measurement, Nielsen is developing Nielsen One in response to the challenge of measuring viewing on multiple platforms and measuring ads, which are increasingly delivered separately from programming, targeted and addressable.

For most of the year, Nielsen has also been under pressure because it undercounted viewing during the pandemic. Nielsen’s clients have been more aggressively investigating new, more up-to-date alternative approaches to measurement.

“There’s a critical need for the evolution of measurement to truly reflect audiences and engagement, and Disney is uniquely positioned to help define and develop that roadmap,” said Julie DeTraglia, head of research, insights and analytics, Disney Media & Entertainment Distribution. “We are pleased to join the Nielsen One Alpha program to ensure it accurately creates a holistic view of ad performance and content viewership for the industry.”

Nielsen One Alpha will look at ad campaigns — rather than programming — unveiling the first cross-platform measurement system from Nielsen that offers both comparability and audience deduplication across linear TV, connected TV, computer and mobile screens. It is designed to give media buyers and sellers a holistic view of their ads across consumer delivery systems and platforms. The deduplicated ad measurement metrics account for age and gender information.

“We are pleased to be working with Nielsen to provide insight and feedback regarding Nielsen One and ensure it delivers on its promise of being a truly holistic cross-screen measurement solution,” said Brian Hughes, executive VP, managing director, audience intelligence & strategy at Magna.

Nielsen has announced several changes in its approach in the past few months, including rebranding its streaming measurements, launching an ID Resolution system and plans to calculate audiences for individual commercials.

“All our hard work this past year has positioned us to take this significant step in fundamentally changing the game and providing the industry with what it wants, needs and deserves,” said Karthik Rao, chief operating officer at Nielsen. “We are on track to deliver our single cross-platform measurement solution in the fourth quarter of 2022, as planned and in a manner that will support the $100 billion video advertising ecosystem. The Alpha launch serves as a clear proof point in our ability to deliver and we are working closely with a diverse group of clients on this important step. In fact, Nielsen One will bring together all the intelligence we have to date in order to help clients capitalize on consumers’ rapidly shifting media habits.” ■

Media buyer Magna Global forecasts that total U.S long-form video ad revenue will rise 7% in 2022 after a 6% gain in 2021 to $65.6 billion.

For long-form video in 2022, Magna sees the biggest gains coming in AVOD, OTT and CTV revenue at 29%. Growth in 2021 was 26% in 2021 and accounted for a 2% share of the overall ad spending.

National broadcast and cable are expected to decline 5% in 2022 with local TV growing 13%, including political and Olympic spending. Without those cyclical events, local video revenue is seen declining 3%.

 Also: Magna Sees U.S. Long-Form Video Ad Revenue Rising 4% in 2022 

Short form video is seen rising 27% in 2022 after a 47% increase to $16.3 billion in 2021.

All U.S. media ad revenues are expected to be up 13%, with digital up 17%. That follows a 24% rebound to $284.3 billion in 2021, according to Magna.

 Also: U.S. TV Ad Spending To Rise By 4% in 2022, Zenith Forecasts

Global ad revenues are expected to grow 12% in 2022, with TV up 3.4% and digital up 16%. 

“The global ad market recovered above and beyond the economic recovery in 2021. Mature linear ad formats recovered to 90% of the pre-COVID level, just as the economy did. Digital ad formats, by contrast, grew much faster than expected, driven by multiple organic growth factors, e-commerce boom being the most significant,” said Vincent Létang, executive VP, global market research at Magna. 

“Traditional, brand- and privacy-safe media remain crucial to building consumer brands, as shown by the strong demand boosting TV costs in 2021, but marketers are increasingly diversifying into digital formats to reach hard-to-reach audiences, improve ROI  and connect more seamlessly to e-commerce. This once-in-a-lifetime planet alignment of growth factors led to the unprecedented market  growth we experienced in 2021,” Létang said. ■

Television ad sales will benefit from an economic recovery that is stronger than previously forecast, according to media buyer Magna, which also sees further consolidation in the U.S. media industry.

National TV ad sales are expected to grow by 5% to $38 billion in 2021, according to a new forecast from Magna, part of IPG’s MediaBrands unit.

Also Read: Global Ad Growth Faster Than Expected: GroupM

Magna said national TV will be helped by stronger pricing and incremental spending around the Tokyo Olympics. The growth is being reflected in what appears to be a hot upfront market for network television.

Local TV will benefit from the recovery of the auto industry, with non-political ad sales up 10%.

Traditional media owners’ cross-platform ad sales will grow by 5% in 2021, with total television ad revenue up 6%, including a 25% increase in long-form AVOD.

The overall U.S. market will grow 15% to a record $259 billion. Magna said that is the biggest growth rate in 40 years. This new forecast is 9 percentage points higher than Magna’s previous forecast made in March.

For 2022, Magna expects the U.S. ad market to grow 8% to $280 billion. That’s 2 percentage points higher than the forecast in March.

“Marketing activity and advertising spending will be fueled by strong consumption, a fast-recovering job market, the reopening of many businesses (restaurants, theaters, amusement parks…) and the return of normal events and sports schedules, plus the Olympics,” Magna said.

Digital ad sales in the U.S. will be up 24% to $179 billion, representing nearly 70% of total ad sales, and non-political linear sales will be up 4%.

Magna notes that because linear ad sales still represent the bulk of ad revenue for traditional media owners, there will be a wave of consolidation in the media industry aimed at competing with digital media players.

“Traditional media companies have no choice but to grow in scale, in order to compete with digital media giants, and invest in cross-platform advertising solutions,” Magna said.

“The U.S. TV market remains relatively fragmented following the merger of Warner and Discovery: The top three TV ad vendors (currently NBC, ViacomCBS and Warner/Discovery) will control just 60% of the U.S. TV advertising market, compared to 90%+ for the top three broadcasters in most other advanced markets,” according to Magna.

On a global basis, Magna expects advertising spending to grow 14% to a record $657 billion in 2021 following a 2.5% decline in 2020. For 2022, Magna is forecasting another 7% increase.

Keys to growth in 2021 include an overall economic recovery that benefits big ad spending categories, including automotive and entertainment, gains in digital marketing and international sports events, such as the Olympics and UEFA Euro.

Most of the growth in ad spending will come in digital, up 20% to $419 billion, accounting for 64% of total ad sales. Linear ad sales will gain 3% to $238 billion.

Countries showing the most growth include China, up 16%, and the U.K., up 17%.

“As economic recovery is stronger and faster than anticipated in several of the world’s largest ad markets (US, UK and China, in particular) and consumption accelerates, brands need to reconnect with consumers,” said Vincent Létang, executive VP, global market research at Magna. “At the same time, the acceleration in ecommerce and digital marketing adoption that started during COVID, continues full speed into 2021, fueling digital advertising spending from consumer brands as well as small and DTC businesses. This unique combination of cyclical, organic and structural drivers will lead to the strongest advertising annual growth ever monitored by Magna.”

Magna, a big media buyer, has issued a more bullish forecast for advertising revenue in 2021.

National TV revenue is now expected to rebound 3.4% in 2021, (excluding seasonal events like the elections), compared to an earlier 3.3% forecast by Magna. Magna said national TV revenue fell 11.6% during the pandemic year of 2020.

Local TV is seen falling 2.5%, again excluding 2020’s record political ad spending, but that’s still better than the previous forecast of a 3.7% drop. Last year, local ad revenue plunged 18.7%.

Digital video is expected to be a big winner, climbing 14.1%, even more than 11.7% rise in Magna’s prior forecast.

Cross-platform editorial media ad sales (linear+digital) will grow by 4% in 2021 (excluding cyclical), with television (including broadcast and cable TV plus long-form AVOD) up 4% and audio (including broadcast radio, streaming and podcasting) up 5%.

Magna noted that the ad market recovered faster than it did during the 2008 recession.

Overall Magna the U.S. ad market growing 8.6%, excluding cyclical events. It’s earlier forecast called for a 6.4% gain to $240 billion. Last year, ad revenue was down 1.6% (up 0.6% if you include presidential year election spending).

“Improving business conditions will fuel marketing expenditures and allow most industry verticals to grow advertising spending again. The strongest ad spend growth rates will come from travel, automotive, drinks and movies, following heavy ad budget cuts in 2020,” Magna said.

National television advertising is expected to grow 5.1% in 2021 after plunging 15.1% in 2020, according to a newly revised forecast from media agency Magna.

Magna said it expects spending to rebound after registering an 18.5% drop in the first half of 2020, when the economy was pummeled by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“The upfront sales system, where volumes and rates are negotiated and locked for the entire broadcast year, limited the decline for national TV (even though many campaigns and upfront commitments were cancelled)," Magna said.

In 2020 local TV will benefit from record political spending of $5 billion, but still fall 4.6%. For 2021, Magna sees local TV down 17%.

Excluding the election and other cyclical events, local TV advertising is expected to be down 19.7% in 2020 after falling 25.1% in the first half. For 2021, local TV ad spending, excluding political ads, will decline 1.8%.

Overall, Magna expects U.S. ad spending to rebound 4% in 2021, driven by a recovery in consumption and mobility and the return of normal schedules for TV shows, sports and the Olympics. 

Ad sales were down 7.2% in the first half of 2020. Digital ad sales were up 5.7%, while linear media fell 23.1%.

Magna expects the market to be down just 2% in the second half of 2020 as parts of the economy reopens and political candidates spend big dollars.For the full year, U>S. ad spending is expected to be down 4.6% to $213 billion.

“The COVID crisis has hastened the normal end of the economic cycle and brought on the worst recession ever. In this context, classically, branding budgets and linear media spend are cut disproportionately while lower-funnel market mechanisms and digital ad formats show much greater resilience, boosted further by the acceleration of e-commerce in the COVID and post-COVID world,” said Vincent Letang, executive VP for global market intelligence at Magna. 

“The sheer size of digital advertising in 2020 (approx. 55% of the US ad market) and its resilience in this economic environment explains the relatively modest decline Magna forecasts for the whole year (-4.6%) despite the severity of the economic recession, compared to the double-digit decline 2008-2009 (-12%) when digital media was still nascent,” Letang said. “For linear media, however, 2020 remains brutal, but Magna is confident that ad revenue will stabilize and recover in 2021”.

Viewers watching music videos on over-the-top devices say they’re receptive to ads, according to a study conducted by Vevo and Magna and the IPG Media Lab.

The study looked at U.S. audiences and different cultures and found that all tended to share and co-view content more when watching on OTT devices compared to desktops, mobile, laptops and even linear TV.

When the content was culturally relevant, viewers stayed tuned in longer, with 37% watching for an hour or more. 

While watching music content on OTT devices, more than 60% of the people in each cultural group said they would be receptive to ads.

“With recent findings showing that 79% of Vevo’s CTV content is being co-viewed, it’s important for us to understand the nuances of audience behaviors in order to pass on these insights with our clients and partners,” said Bryon Schafer, senior VP of research at Vevo.

“No screen is seeing a greater surge in Vevo viewership than the television, which has seen an increase of over 20% since March of this year with 61M viewers exclusively engaging on connected TV screens. Modeling user behavior against our content and go-to-market strategies keep us in tune with our global audiences. We’ve really enjoyed finding out exactly what makes viewers tune in – and stay tuned in to the content they watch,” Schafer said.

While there were some similarities, across cultural groups, there were also notable differences.

Among Asians, older audiences are more likely to seek out informative videos for task-based viewing sessions across all devices. Meanwhile younger Asian audiences are more likely to watch binge-friendly genres, like music, resulting in longer viewing periods of over an hour across all devices.

African-American audience watch binge-worthy content for longer periods of time. However, unlike younger Asian audiences, younger black viewers tend to watch content in shorter spurts of less than 30 minutes, likely driven by higher levels of mobile usage. Black viewers are the most likely audience to seek out music and sports content. OTT is the leading device to resonate with Black viewers at their most engaged with 63% of audiences being receptive to ads on this device.

Among Hispanics, English dominant and bilingual Hispanic viewers tend to have longer watch time, while Spanish dominant audiences watch for mid-length sessions of 30-59 minutes. 60% of Hispanic viewers watching music on OTT are receptive to ads.

The report concludes that you can reach viewers in their most engaged state when they’re watching videos that relate to them culturally--they’re attentive and receptive.

“Our Cultural Dimensions study reinforced the idea that social media platforms have helped propagate and influence the conversation on culture.  So the merging of our datasets with IPG Media Lab’s and MAGNA’s helps to bring new multicultural insights into how we think about creating smarter strategies for data analysis, planning, creative and more,” says Deidre Smalls-Landau, U.S. chief marketing officer and global head of culture for UM, on of the IPG media agencies that works with Magna and the IPG Media Lab.

Related > Viewer Watch 2017: Download the Complete Report

With new business models proliferating almost as fast as new consumer-electronics devices at this year’s CES, TV executives are recalling 2016 as a year of landmark changes that will produce even more profound developments in 2017.

“In the last year, there has been more change in the video business than we saw in probably the past five years,” said Matthew Strauss, executive vice president and general manager of video and entertainment services for Comcast Cable. “We’re just continuing to find the competitive landscape shifting. There are more services being delivered over the top to consumers. There is the growth and proliferation of Internet-connected TV devices like Roku, Apple TV or Amazon Fire. And you are also seeing new services that are delivering bundled over the top channels like Sling TV, Sony’s PlayStation Vue and DirecTV Now.”

In response, programmers and operators have introduced a flurry of new products. “In terms of video, this has been one of the biggest for Cox in all the years I’ve been here,” Steve Necessary, executive vice president of product development and management at Cox Communications, said.

Less obviously, operators and programmers continue to make massive investments in their technology infrastructures with important implications for their offerings in 2017 and beyond.

“As a company, we are investing and positioning content to be consumed on more and more platforms every day,” Discovery Communications chief technology officer John Honeycutt said, stressing that the programmer is rapidly deploying new cloud and software-based infrastructures so it can adapt to consumer needs and quickly roll out new services. “We are in the middle of a revolution in our supply chain.”

Related: Old Controversies and New Businesses

DIGITAL-FIRST REALITY

Much of this reflects longstanding changes in consumer behavior and the underlying economics of the TV, digital and media industries.

Vincent Letang, executive vice president of global market intelligence at Magna, said 2016 was the first year digital advertising exceeded total TV advertising in the U.S., garnering 39% of the total ad spend versus 37.4% for TV. Digital advertising is set to exceed total TV advertising worldwide for the first time in 2017, he added.

“We are forecasting that in five years, digital will grow to 56.0% of total advertising [in 2021 in the U.S.] while TV will plateau at 29.9%,” he said. Meanwhile, content creators and distributors are following the flow of money into digital media, fueling rapid growth in consumption of TV shows on mobile devices, computers and TVs connected to the Internet.

“The cliché of how consumers ‘want my content when I want it, where I want it and how I want it,’ is now a truism,” Mike Vorhaus, president of Magid Advisors at Frank N. Magid Associates, said. “Just five years ago, it was hard to find a lot of content. But now, in 2017, I’m really the captain of my media ship in a way that was not true in the past.”

Given ongoing rapid growth in the usage of mobile and connected TVs, it is difficult to call digital video “mature.” But researchers stress that the tectonic changes in how video is consumed and delivered have already made digital media a central part of the TV business.

“After four or five years of talking about alternative ways to access video and watching significant growth in its usage, we are now at a point where it is pretty much established,” Howard Horowitz, president and founder of Horowitz Research, said. “It’s not a fly in the ointment, but part of the business. Digital self-managed access to video content is with us and mostly that is a good thing for all the players.”

DISRUPTIVE GAINS

Others agree. After ticking off a long list of new products and initiatives designed to realign their offerings with newer consumer behavior, Comcast’s Strauss said: “Our third-quarter video results were the best we’ve had in 10 years. We added 32,000 video customers, which is an 80,000 improvement year over year. And if you look at the last 12 months, we are video-positive.”

Some programmers have been buffeted by the changes, which have hurt ratings, but those that have aggressively moved to capitalize on the newer delivery platforms are pleased with the results.

Bernadette Aulestia, executive vice president of worldwide distribution for HBO, noted that the launch of the OTT service HBO Now has allowed the programmer to tap into new markets and see healthy growth in the overall business. “Less than 1% of [the OTT] HBO Now subscribers are coming from our linear multichannel subscribers,” she said.

Executives from Dish Network and AT&T cited similar experiences with their respective OTT channel bundles, Sling TV and DirecTV Now, which are designed in part to tap into viewers outside of the pay TV ecosystem.

“There are about 20 million households in the U.S. that are either not engaged with pay TV or have opted to leave the pay TV ecosystems,” Tony Goncalves, senior vice president of strategy and business development for AT&T Entertainment Group, said.

That doesn’t mean that the industry can sit back and pretend it will be business as usual in 2017.

An acceleration in the decline in pay TV subscribers has caused Magna to revise its estimates of pay TV subscribers downward. There is also a great deal of uncertainty about the ad market.

These trends raise important questions about the changing use of video on various platforms — traditional TV, mobile, Internet-connected TVs, set-top boxes and other technologies. How these trends will impact the health of the industry and the kind of products that get launched in 2017 is the subject of the next story.

Giant media agency MagnaGlobal forecasts that advertising revenues will grow 6.4% to $516 billion in 2014.

That’s down a bit from Magna’s December prediction that spending would grow by 6.5%. Both figures are substantially higher than the 4.2% growth advertising revenues registered in 2013.

Magna said stronger economic growth and even-year events—the Olympics, World Cup and U.S. mid-term elections—will combine to generate the biggest boost in spending since 2010.

Ad revenues in the U.S. are expected by Magna to increase 6% to $168 billion. In addition to the sports events, American ad spending is being driven by the companies and interest groups reacting to the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.

Digital media are growing at the fastest pace, with spending up 16% to $140 billion, representing a 27% market share.

Mobile media is responsible for the bulk of digital media growth, jumping 61% to $27.1 billion in 2014. Mobile’s share of digital media will be 24% in 2014, up from 19% in 2013. Magna expects it to jump to 38% by 2019.

Television will grow globally at a 7.2% rate in 2014, the agency says.