Notwithstanding the cratering of viewership in last Sunday’s Super Bowl LV, which collapsed quicker than the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive line, streaming services could be poised to snatch what has been the last vestige of appointment television: live sports, according to at least one influential analyst.  

According to Nielsen, 96.4 million homes watched Super Bowl LV on TV, the lowest number since 2007. About 5.7 million homes streamed the game, the highest level for that metric ever. 

In a research note that was issued before those ratings numbers were released, MoffettNathanson media analyst Michael Nathanson pointed to the growing trend of younger viewers migrating to streaming video, and that it would likely mean that sports would have to follow them. Nathanson didn’t expect big tent sporting events like the Super Bowl or the World Series to switch exclusively online, but he said games from various professional and college sports leagues, a staple of cable networks like TBS, TNT and regional sports networks owned by teams, could be in danger.

“We would think that the NFL, NCAA, ‘March Madness,’ NBA and MLB Playoffs will remain the domain of broadcast and will have digital rights that are monetized via affiliated services like Paramount +, Peacock or ESPN +,” Nathanson wrote. “Fox, the odd man out without a paid OTT service, will have a decision to make about how they move forward.”

Fox bought entertainment streaming service Tubi last year, which offers free ad-supported movies and shows from several networks, including Fox, doesn’t have a sports component. On Feb. 9, Fox said it expects Tubi to reach $1 billion in revenue over the next few years. In 2021, it anticipates revenue at the service will double to about $300 million. 

Keeping tentpole sporting events on the four major broadcasters makes sense for now because that’s where the majority of viewers are. Even the worst-viewed Super Bowl in 14 years was watched on traditional TV by a nearly 20:1 margin over streaming. 

But for nationally televised sports like the NHL, NBA, golf, tennis and college sports, the staples of sports-based cable channels, networks may have to make some hard choices soon, Nathanson continued, adding they may have to adopt a hybrid approach like Peacock and NBCU, putting a limited number of events across a smaller number of networks. That, Nathanson wrote, in turn “would mean the end of FS2, ESPNU, CBS Sports Networks and a greater number of games carried on OTT products also now including HBO Max.”

Analysts have been warning that streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Prime Video and the like could disrupt the televised sports business for years, but so far they have only dipped their toes in the sports business. But as new services emerge, they are beginning to pay attention to sports, and that should have linear networks worried.

In the past month Peacock, Comcast NBCUniversal’s streaming offering, has said it will assume sports programming from NBCSN at the end of the year, when that regional sports network shuts down. 

Peacock also reached a deal with WWE, where its WWE Network streaming service will be available exclusively to Peacock subscribers for $4.99 per month (free to Comcast Xfinity customers, who also get Peacock premium for free). In addition, WWE renewed its licensing relationship with NBCU’s USA Network, which airs WWE’s Monday Night Raw.  

Viewership on cable sports channels has been slipping as younger viewers cut the traditional pay TV cord. ESPN has lost about 9% of its subscribers since 2015 because of cord cutting, while FS1 has lost 5% and the Golf Channel has dipped 11%, according to MoffettNathanson. At the same time, overall time viewed on cable sports channels like ESPN and Fox Sports 2 has fallen a collective 5% since 2015. For some channels the drop is more pronounced -- ESPN2 dropped 12% and ESPNU fell 11% in that time frame. Also during that period, remaining viewers are getting older. According to MoffettNathanson, 65% of all cable network viewers are over the age of 50. 

“Obviously, if you are a sports league trying to build long-term connections with the next generation of fans, this is an increasingly terrifying outcome,” Nathanson wrote. 

Nathanson pointed to both the WWE deal and the NBCSN closing as signs of a sea change in the industry.

“If a Comcast-owned network decides the economics of a standalone national sports network no longer makes sense, what does this mean for other national sports networks?” Nathanson wrote. 

Sports consultant Lee Berke, president and CEO of LHB Media & Entertainment said that while the business is changing, it won’t necessarily be an either/or scenario. Berke believes that most sports networks won’t pick sides in the streaming wars, but will instead continue on a path toward multi-platform offerings.  

“I don’t see pay TV going away. I don’t see sports going away on pay TV. I think you see less of it,” Berke said. “I think you see a more consolidated bundle of fewer networks, that are general interest, sports, entertainment and news. Even in the worst scenarios, they’re still going to have 50-60 million TV homes that are subscribers to these bundles. So there’s still value there. There’s an audience there.”

Berke added that networks will continue to beef up their direct-to-consumer services with sports. He pointed to ESPN +, which has added considerable content from its launch in 2018, and which he believes will be nearly indistinguishable from ESPN- proper in the next few years.  

“You’ll see this sag in the pay TV universe,” Berke said, adding that some sports will migrate to streaming services, some will revert to broadcast and some will remain on pay TV. “I think the key is there has to be a multi-platform strategy. The idea of a linear-only sports network just is not going to work going forward.”   

Content companies already have started putting much of their linear content on their direct-to-consumer offerings. During the Super Bowl, ViacomCBS spent a lot of money on ads for its upcoming Paramount + launch, mainly showing shows that are already available on their linear channels. 

Making all of a network’s linear content available to stream on a separate app hasn’t sat too well with distributors in the past, especially if the streaming app is priced lower than the rate the distributor is paying. That, Berke said, will have to be negotiated out.

“There will have to be a reckoning,” Berke said.       

Programmers will have to start making those decisions soon. Although streaming has obviously been a part of at least some sports rights deals -- and the major broadcasters have already locked up Major League Baseball, PGA Golf and SEC Football agreements recently -- there are still several left to negotiate. According to Nathanson, ESPN’s MLB rights deals come due in 2022, as does NBC’s Premier League pact. In 2023, several NFL rights deals expire: ESPN’s Monday Night Football, Fox’s Thursday Night Football and Sunday NFC packages, NBC’s Sunday Night Football and CBS’s Sunday AFC football package. Also that year, Fox and ABC/ESPN’s Big Ten college football packages are set to be renegotiated.  

Further out, ESPN’s and Fox Sports’ Pac-12 and ESPN’s UFC deals expire in 2024. In 2025, the NBA’s rights agreements with  ABC/ESPN and TNT come due; as do Fox and NBC Sports pacts with NASCAR. 

While streaming is expected to play a big role in those negotiations, and sports has come under fire for driving most of the rate increases for pay TV, Berke said he still expects a robust rights market.

“Because every technology, every new platform needs sports to drive subs, the key properties that are out there will have healthy increases in rights fees,” Berke said. “I think the NFL is going to come close to doubling. The NBA, which has acknowledged that the one issue they have is that they haven't established a strong streaming presence in a sport that skews young, when their deals are up in 2025 they will go much more heavily into streaming platforms and direct-to-consumer. Because these media businesses will have multiple screens and multiple ways to make money, and because they need to drive subscribers across all of them, the rights fees will go up substantially.”  

 Sunday's Super Bowl LV game overshadows a busy weekend live sports event  calendar.

The game between the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs and quarterback Patrick Mahomes against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by six-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady, will air live on CBS starting at 6:30 pm (ET). Last year’s Chiefs-San Francisco 49’ers Super Bowl telecast on Fox averaged 100 million viewers. 

Read Also: A Look at NFL Social Video Trends Ahead of the Super Bowl 

Along with CBS' broadcast TV coverage, the Super Bowl will also stream for free on the CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports app, as well as Verizon properties including Yahoo Sports and NFL digital properties. ESPN Deportes and ESPN digital platforms will offer the game in Spanish. 

Read Also: Super Bowl to Stream on Multiple Platforms

Beyond the big game on Sunday, Golf Channel and NBC will team to present final round coverage of the PGA’s Phoenix Open golf tournament. NBC will also hit the ice for a NHL game between the Philadelphia Flyers and the Washington Capitals, while sister sports channel NBCSN will air five Premier League soccer game throughout the day. 

College basketball has a huge slate of games this weekend featuring a number of top 10 teams. Saturday afternoon games include sixth-ranked Texas battling Oklahoma State on ABC and ninth-ranked Oklahoma hosting Iowa State on ESPN2. On Sunday Fox will telecast third-ranked Villanova’s game against conference rival Georgetown and eighth-ranked Iowa’s game with Indiana.

ABC will lace up for a primetime NBA telecast featuring the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks, while CBS airs the NFL Honors event. 

Also Saturday, ESPN+ will feature a UFC Fight Night card featuring the Alistair Overeem-Alexander Volkov heavyweight main event bout. 

ESPN will telecast classic Monday Night Football games over a five week period beginning March 30, as part of a deal between the network and the NFL.

The games will air Monday nights from March 30 to April 27 and will include the November 2018 Kansas City Chiefs- Los Angeles Rams game -- the highest-scoring game in NFL history -- as well as the New Orleans Saints’ Superdome reopening game after Hurricane Katrina in April 2006. 

An hour of ESPN’s Peyton’s Places interview shows will precede each Monday Night FootballClassics each week at 7 p.m.

These telecasts will also include inventory to support COVID-19 relief-focused organizations, said network officials. 

Super Bowl LIV on Fox scored 102 million viewers on traditional television and streaming services Sunday night, the 10th most-watched Super Bowl in history, according to Nielsen. The audience tally includes viewers tuning into Fox broadcasting and Fox Deportes’ live broadcasts, as well as Fox, NFL and Verizon's live digital streaming offerings, said Fox Sports and Nielsen.

The game, in which the Kansas City Chiefs scored three fourth quarter touchdowns in a come-from-behind 31-20 win over the San Francisco 49’ers, topped the 100 million viewers generated by CBS’ telecast of the New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams Super Bowl LIII contest last year.

Fox’s coverage of the Pepsi Super Bowl LIV Halftime Show, which featured performances from Jennifer Lopez and Shakira, averaged 103 million viewers, said Fox Sports and Nielsen -- up 4% over last year’s halftime performance featuring Maroon 5. 

Last night’s Los Angeles Rams-Kansas City Chiefs Monday Night Football shootout drew an impressive 16.6 million viewers for ESPN, according to Nielsen.

The game, in which the Rams defeated the Chiefs 54-51 in the highest-scoring game in MNF’s 49-year history, was the most watched MNF telecast since the Detroit Lions-Dallas Cowboys game drew 18.6 million viewers in December 2016. 

Further, the game was ESPN’s most watched telecast since this past January’s Georgia-Alabama College Football Playoff National Championship game drew 27 million viewers.

The 16.7 million viewers for the Rams-Chiefs game is up 54% compared to last year’s Atlanta Falcons-Seattle Seahawks game in week 11, which averaged 10.8 million viewers, according to the network.

Overall, ESPN’s Monday Night Football telecasts are up 10% season to date, according to the network. 

NBC’s Thursday night Kansas City Chiefs-New England Patriots National Football League game telecast was a huge hit on social media, according to Nielsen.

The game, in which the Chiefs upset the Patriots 42-27 in the first game of the 2017 NFL regular season, drew a whopping 7.9 million Facebook and Twitter interactions from more than 3.5 million unique users to finish first among all TV shows, according to Nielsen’s Social Content Ratings report for Sept. 7.

Among entertainment shows, CBS’s Big Brother drew 713,000 social media interactions on Thursday, followed by NBC’s The Rachel Maddow Show, CBS’ The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, Lifetime’s Project Runway and Fox News Channel’s Hannity.

The NFL Network on Jan. 15 plans to show the Green Bay Packers playing the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl I for the first time since 1967.

NBC and CBS were the original broadcasters of the game, and both networks had lost or recorded over tapes of the broadcast.

NFL Films spent months searching its archives, from more than a dozen sources, to find all 145 Super Bowl I plays and recreate the entire game.

Read more at broadcastingcable.com.