Sanford Bernstein media analyst Todd Juenger held his fourth focus group aimed at determining the appetite for “skinny bundles” and found the segment hungriest to reduce their pay TV diet were consumers that already were eating too much.

Juenger’s latest focus group was held in Boston on June 7, asking a group of young consumers (under 40 years of age, living independently, and a mixture of cord-cutters and pay TV subscribers) to explore their interest in OTT packages like Sling TV, DirecTV Now, and YouTube TV. The analyst has conducted three similar focus groups in San Francisco, Chicago and New York and plans to conduct similar groups on stage at its upcoming Future of Media Summit in New York on June 28 and 29.

As in past focus groups, the samples are small – about 17 people, nine female and eight male – and are not supposed to be considered all encompassing. But they do provide anecdotal insight into young consumer behavior.

What Juenger found was basically what was determined in the earlier groups – the customers most likely to opt for skinny bundles were existing pay TV customers, many with the top level of service, which “aren’t exactly the incremental, cord-cutting audience we've heard network executives describe,” he wrote. “If they can trade down, save money, and still get the content that's most important to them, they're willing to consider switching. Cord-nevers/cord-cutters, on the other hand, once again expressed almost no interest.”

Specific shows, not networks or channels, seem to be driving most young consumers’ buying habits, with several of those surveyed adding that if they see a show they like, they’ll buy it. Young millennials who don’t have pay TV subscriptions aren’t likely to be compelled to start paying for a “skinny” video package, mainly because it doesn’t include all the shows they watch.

“My whole thing is just there’s so many different services, and they don’t have—they’re all missing something. My question is, why?," noted one participant who pays $200 per month for five different services.

Juenger asked the participants what channels they would pay $5 per month for and ESPN topped the list, followed by Food Network, FX, HGTV, Logo, NBCSN, Syfy and VH1.

Of the consumers that did stick with their full video packages, DVR service was the service most feared losing if they downgraded, according to the report.

One difference from the other studies was that local news seemed to fall from the list of reasons why consumers balked at cutting the cord. Most participants said the availability of local news on the internet made it easier to do without those channels.

One service the participants seemed to be unable to do without was Netflix. While most were focused on cutting their costs when it came to TV entertainment, ost participants said they would keep their Netflix subscriptions even if the monthly charge rose to $15 per month. Netflix is currently priced at about $10 per month.

Sanford Bernstein media analyst Todd Juenger initiated coverage of Lionsgate Entertainment with an “outperform” rating and a $48 price target, adding that the motion picture and television producer is a “structural winner,” benefitting from the market turmoil that is hurting traditional TV networks.

In a note to clients, Juenger said the structural changes that are hurting networks are helping studios – as audiences fall, networks commission more original content from studios.

“Studios are nothing more than factories that manufacture a product called ‘Movies’ and ‘TV Shows,’ Juenger wrote. “Those factories are receiving more orders than ever, and there are very few limits to production capacity.”

Juenger’s 12-month price target represents a 43% premium to its Dec. 14 close of $33.47 per share.

Juenger has been critical of the prospects of some content networks which have struggled with slipping ratings, but said Lionsgate has an advantage because it is an independent studio – there is no conflict in selling to networks and SVOD providers alike. Because TV revenue makes up a smaller percentage of total sales than its peers, it has ample room to grow that segment.  

Fueling that optimism are Lionsgate’s movie strategy – it pre-licenses foreign exhibition rights at predetermined prices;  has carved out a position as the “go-to” studio for young adult movies (Hunger Games and Twilight series’) and has a strong TV business.

Juenger wrote the TV business is poised for significant growth in the next few years as it enters first cycle syndication for a number of titles, including ABC hit Nashville and through its Pilgrim Studios investment, which is growing rapidly and gives them a foothold in the reality TV genre.   

Juenger estimates Lionsgate can grow earnings at a 25% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next three years.

Cable stocks took a beating Thursday after Sanford Bernstein media analyst Todd Juenger lowered his rating on The Walt Disney Co. and Time Warner Inc. to “market perform,” adding that heightened risk in the sector is calling for a new valuation framework.

The downgrade, coupled with a more than 358-point decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average -- it's lowest level since last fall -- sent stocks reeling. The Dow closed at 16,990.69, down 358.04 points as investors concerned about growth prospects both domestically and internationally, headed for the exits. IN teh media space, Disney and Viacom felt the biggest hits – they closed  down 6% and 6.3% respectively on Aug. 20, -- but virtually no cable programming or distribution stock was spared.

On the programming side, Discovery Communications fell 5.1% followed by  Madison Square Garden Co. (-4.1%), Scripps Networks (-5%), Time Warner Inc. (-5%), CBS (-5.1%) and 21st Century Fox (-4.2%). On the distribution side, Dish Network was down 4.3%; Charter Communications fell 2.9%; Comcast was down 2.6%, Time Warner Cable was down 2% and Cable One dipped 1.8%. Cablevision Systems rounded out the sector, dipping 2.4% at the Thursday close.      

The declines come soon after the media market meltdown earlier in the month,  when every stock in the sector fell at least 10% at one point between Aug. 5 and Aug. 6.

According to Juenger, the market is now valuing media companies as “structurally impaired assets,” adding that in addition to a secular downturn in the TV advertising business, affiliate fees for cable networks “are being put at increased risk.”

Juenger added that he now believes the market is valuing the domestic TV business like satellite TV, publishing and AOL. Those companies, he said, all have declining subscriber fees and/or advertising displacement and trade at around 7 times cash flow.

Only 21st Century Fox managed to keep its “outperform” rating from the analyst – he said there is just too much growth over the next two years to ignore – but even that stock is approached with caution, as Juenger “worries that FY16 guidance is (again) at risk (already).”