An estimated 25.4 million people tuned in to watch coverage of the midterm elections in primetime Tuesday, down from the 36.1 million who tuned in to the 2018 midterms, according to Nielsen.

Coverage aired on 13 networks in primetime, compared to the 12 that carried election news during the last midterm election.

Nielsen said that 43% of those tuning in 2022 watched broadcast coverage, while 57% watched on cable networks.

Also: Media Figures Figure Prominently in Crucial Midterms

Fox News Channel had the largest audience, drawing 7.4 million total viewers in primetime. ABC was next with 3.3 million, followed by MSNBC with 3.2 million, NBC with 3.1 million, CNN with 2.6 million and CBS with 2.56 million.

Nielsen viewing numbers include ABC, CBS, NBC, Telemundo, Univision, CNN, CNNe, Fox Business, Fox News Channel, MSNBC, Newsmax and NewsNation. ■

Election Day dawned Tuesday (Nov. 8) with former TV personalities in the political spotlight.

The highest-profile of those, former reality TV figure and ex-President Donald Trump, was hinting Monday at a big announcement coming Tuesday evening, likely that he would be running again in 2024.

It was unclear what effect, if any, the hinting at that announcement would have on Republican races in the midterms beyond taking some of the spotlight away from them and putting it on Trump, who clearly revels in the attention.

Meanwhile, the bid of one of the Republican candidates Trump has endorsed, doctor and syndicated TV talk show personality Mehmet Oz, for the open Senate seat against Pennsylvania Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, a recovering stroke victim, which could well determine which party gets control of the Senate. Given that Republicans appear to be pretty much of a lock to regain the House, that race could help determine whether Republicans take both House and Senate.

Political handicapping site FiveThirtyEight gives Oz a slight edge (a 57 in 100 chance) to defeat Fetterman given that while it is essentially a dead heat, he has been picking up momentum in recent weeks, erasing what had been a three-point lead two weeks ago. 

If Republicans win the House as expected, TV will likely continue to be a political player as they have vowed to hold their own high-profile oversight hearings after Democrats held televised hearings on Trump's impeachments and the January 6 Capitol insurrection.

In Arizona, the governor’s race has drawn national attention for the rise of former TV anchor Kari Lake, a big Trump supporter. who is leading Democrat Katie Hobbs by a couple of percentage points in an average of over a dozen polls. 

While she was a successful TV anchor for over two decades at Fox's KSAZ Phoenix — she only quit in March of last year — the outspoken Lake has gained attention for repudiating the media in which she worked for two decades. 

Lake was on leave from KSAZ and made a video explaining her exit. She said the media needed a wider range of viewpoints and she no longer felt proud as a member of the media. She thanked the station even as she suggested she was being asked to report news that was not “fully truthful” or only told “part of the story.”

“The fake news media is going down,” she said at a recent campaign event. “Nobody is listening to you anymore,” she said, adding that the media was “pushing lies and propaganda” and “losing all its power.” ▪️

The National Association of Broadcasters has launched its midterm election online toolkit, complete with help in identifying online misinformation and disinformation, which has plagued recent elections.

Also included is advice for hosting debates; resources for voter registration and finding the correct polling place; turning out the youth vote; and turnkey voter participation public-service announcements (PSAs) in English and Spanish (see image).

“Local broadcasters are a trusted and reliable source of news and information, which takes on heightened importance in combating disinformation as Americans exercise their right to vote,” NAB president and CEO Curtis LeGeyt said of the toolkit. “The toolkit will equip radio and television stations in helping voters make informed decisions at the polls — an essential component in ensuring the vitality of our democracy.”

Stations that want to help expand the toolkit by sharing examples of their own debates, news coverage of voter education efforts should e-mail advocacy@nab.org. They can also reach out to director of public affairs Melissa Eastlake at meastlake@nab.org. ■

No wonder legislators appear laser-focused on the power of social media these days. Use of social media giants Twitter and Facebook by politicians increased dramatically in 2020, according to a new Pew Research Center study of how Congress used both to engage with the public during and after the 2020 election, compared with 2016.

The analysis found that between Sept. 8 and Dec. 8, 2016, legislators had 207,009 posts on Facebook and Twitter combined, but that jumped to 315,818 such posts between Sept. 3 and Dec. 3, 2020.

Also Read: Pew: Sizable Portions of U.S. Use Social Media for News

Not surprisingly, Donald Trump was much on the minds, or at least in the feeds, of Democrats. In 2016, "Trump" was the second most common term used by Democrats and in 2020 it was the single most common word mentioned. By contrast, neither Hillary Clinton nor Joe Biden were among even the 10 most common terms for Republicans in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

Other takeaways from the analysis:

In terms of audience engagement, Democrats in 2016 received the largest increase when mentioning the possible election of Trump, while in 2020 Republicans received the biggest boost when saying that every legal vote should be counted or referencing Joe Biden's son, Hunter. For Democrats, “President-elect Trump” got the biggest engagement bump, followed by his strategist, “Steve Bannon.”

So-called link polarization is on the rise. The number of links to popular domains shared exclusively by members of one party or the other increased from 20 in 2016 to 31 in 2020.

Legislators are citing fewer outside links in their posts, driven by a sharp decline in Republicans linking to outside sources, down from 36% in 2016 to only 22% in 2020.

The Pew analysis is based on every Facebook post and tweet created by every voting member of the House and Senate, including official, campaign and personal accounts. That came to almost 166,000 Facebook posts from 698 members of Congress (a total of 1,408 Facebook accounts), and more than 357,000 tweets from 669 members of Congress (a total of 1,438 Twitter accounts).

With up to 50% or more of American voters casting their ballots well before Election Day on Nov. 3 — either by mail or at local early-voting centers — the traditional political advertising schedule is up for grabs this year. The typical deluge of candidate and referendum commercials during Halloween weekend, especially for local campaigns, is meaningless if most voters have already made their choices weeks earlier.

Hence the pre-voting portion of the campaign spending pool estimated at
$9 billion, according to PQ Media, has become a complicated media buy in this unprecedented election year. The growing campaign reliance on online and especially mobile platforms further revises the landscape.    

In addition to candidates’ commercials, this year’s political lineup will be overwhelmed by ads from political action committees (PACs), which are not subject to the lowest unit charge (LUC) rates candidates must be offered for broadcast and cable TV buys.   

“Early voting [puts] pressure on campaigns to ramp up advertising earlier than October,” Kevin Latek, executive VP and chief legal and development officer at Gray Television, said. “We saw some 2020 Senate candidates start advertising last summer.”  

Latek also noted the impact of early political advertising on other commercial placement. “Political advertising displaces traditional advertising to varying degrees,” he said. “Political advertisers tend to advertise in local newscasts more than other types of programming, and that’s where we see the most displacement, and obviously, there is tremendous displacement in local news between Oct. 1 and Election Day in most markets on most stations.”

Starting Earlier, Building Slower

Steve Lanzano, president and CEO of the Television Bureau of Advertising, has observed variants of the early-advertising movement in various states. “It’ll start earlier and ramp up, with slower acceleration,” he said. Lanzano also acknowledged the “agility” of political media buyers, who are buying time very dynamically.

“Their money moves on a daily and weekly basis, based on the polls,” he said. “That moves a lot.” 

Citing current polling data that indicate about 15 states may be competitive in the presidential race, Lanzano said campaigns have already reserved buys on TV stations in those key markets.   “We’re the only megaphone out there,” he said in an S&P Global Market Intelligence interview.  “You can’t hold the large in-person political rallies.”

Lanzano said he thinks stations will open up as much inventory as possible for political ads. But there are some hurdles. He cited the comeback of automotive advertising as local car and truck dealers seek to sell vehicles already on their lots, along with 2021 model introductions.

“Inventory management will be important,” he said. One unusual factor this year is that local stations have commercial slots available for tune-in advertising, especially to promote new shows. But since the TV season has been delayed this autumn, Lanzano expects stations will sell that inventory to political campaigns.   

Steve Passwaiter, VP and general manager at Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which monitors political advertising, characterized 2020 as “very unfamiliar territory.” 

PACs are outspending candidates, he said. A major theme of all political advertisers is to encourage get-out-the-vote efforts. Citing “passion that’s in the mix this year,” he still expects 40% of campaign funds will be spent on ads during October, probably early in the month.  

CNN on Labor Day weekend cited separate Kantar CMAG forecasts that the presidential campaigns have already booked heavy TV spending: $171 million for President Donald Trump and $153 million for his Democratic challenger, former Vice President Joe Biden. Those totals are likely to increase, with ad campaigns focused on media in swing states. 

Leo Kivijarv, executive VP and research director at PQ Media, a Connecticut firm that has been analyzing election spending since 2004, expects total political advertising to top $9.3 billion this year.

“October will be a bigger month than normal,” he said. “Spending will not be concentrated in the last two weeks before Election Day.”

Money Follows the Polling

Kivijarv said ad-buying decisions would be made dynamically as campaign strategists track voter polls — especially in swing states — in order to throw money toward voters who are still making up their minds. He is especially focused on radio, which over-indexes on African-American and Hispanic voters.  

“Everything is happening a little earlier,” said Mark Jablonowski, managing partner and CTO of DSPolitical, a digital advertising company for Democratic candidates and progressive causes.”

“Ad buys are beginning earlier than ever for the more competitive races, but in general, most campaigns will ramp up eight to 10 weeks before the election, which is fairly standard,” Jablonowski said. “We think peak spending will start a bit sooner and last a bit longer than is typical,” although campaigns for down-ballot races may be delayed because of fund-raising problems, he added. 

“Early spending for the general election is up by 14% in Effectv markets this cycle compared to 2018 and 20% over 2016,” Dan Sinagoga, head of political sales at Comcast’s Effectv ad-sales unit, said. He expects a continuing commercial flow during September and October, front-loaded more than usual.  

“History shows that 63% to 65% of the full year’s spending happens from Labor Day to November Election Day once the General Election window opens,” Sinagoga said. “That [is] holding true in this cycle given the pace of the spending.” (The balance of political spending comes during primaries and for other campaigns.) 

Political advertising in 2020, like many other factors in this unprecedented campaign season, will be very different. It’s not just about the mail-in ballots brouhaha or result report challenges on the night of Nov. 3.

Cable, broadcast and advertising executives plus seasoned political tacticians and analysts are gearing up for constant revisions in how campaigns advertise during the coming six weeks. They are trying to determine how to schedule messages in a year where up to 50% of voters may cast their ballots well before Halloween weekend, when (in a “normal” year) we’d see a deluge of last-minute campaign commercials.

“September is the new October,” Republican ad strategist Evan Tracey told me.

Democratic media expert Mark Jablonowski said he expects that “the typical binge right at the end … will be smaller since campaigns will begin spending earlier.”

Like other political operatives and media executives, rivals Tracey and Jablonowski agreed that the early emphasis is “get-out-the-vote” messages, both by candidates and political action committees. They said that COVID-19 has forced everyone to “focus early” on political advertising. Moreover, constant polling throughout the coming weeks will drive campaigns to buy commercials in locations where they identify still-undecided voters who have not yet cast early ballots.

Dan Sinagoga, head of political sales at Effectv, the advertising sales division of Comcast Cable (formerly known as Comcast Spotlight) expects that the commercial flow during September and October will be front-loaded more than usual. 

“Early spending for the General Election is up by 14% in Effectv markets this cycle compared to 2018 and 20% over 2016,” he told Multichannel News.  

“States like California, Colorado and Oregon have always been traditional heavy mail-in states in the Effectv footprint, but you will see more early voting in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida than ever before according to our agency partners,” Sinagoga explained.

As for sufficient ad-time inventory, he acknowledged that availability has “become a challenge” to some non-political clients, leading to a “delivery strain” as the amount of campaign advertising increases.

“Had it not been for the slow ramp to the retail business due to COVID-19, August’s political uptick would have caused greater spot clearance issues for non-political advertisers,” he said, noting that August felt “very much like the General Election window started already.”

He cited the growth of multi-platform advertising, which Sinagoga calls “a pivotal part of Effectv's sales efforts with VOD and IP inventory pitched along with linear TV on every avail.” He expects video-on-demand (or Connected TV) to become the “#1 or #2 reach channel available – on broadcast or cable – regardless of the market.”

“We are seeing a sweeping change in 2020 as it pertains to media allocations,” he said. “We are seeing political agencies and their clients planning for up to 25% of budgets towards OTT resources.”

Sinagoga points out that more than 70% of all digital political advertising is being placed programmatically.

“Effectv launched a programmatic offer in July and is pacing far ahead of where we had hoped at this point, with the General Election spending still to go,” he said.

Like others who are monitoring campaign spending, Sinagoga observes that media outlets in swing states are already seeing political ad growth – especially ones where early voting is widely used.

“The elongated voting season was a big driver in the record-setting political ad spend [Effectv] saw in August,” Sinagoga said, citing a FCC public file which showed that other companies also “benefitted from that heavy up.” 

Singagoga observes that “viewership data being used more holistically” in political ad buying.

“We averaged between eight to 12 networks on political buys during the primary season this year, where we typically see between one to four networks,” with the biggest growth coming on cable news channels. He noted that there were “Fox News-only executions in heavily Republican states.”

Effectv’s data shows that viewers are spending more than 77% more time with cable news, mainly MSNBC and Fox News. Moreover, political ads are going to female-skewing networks such as HGTV, USA, TLC and the Food Network, which he calls “voter-rich environments.”

More Automotive, Retail Competition for Ad Avails

This year’s political advertising playbook is complicated by competition for channel inventory as beleaguered retailers begin their pre-holiday marketing campaigns earlier than ever in an effort to recoup sales lost during the early days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Now is also prime season for automotive advertising as car companies introduce new models with aggressive TV campaigns.

In addition to candidates’ commercials, this year’s political line-up will be overwhelmed by Political Action on Committees ads, which are not subject to the “lowest unit price” (LUP) rates that candidates must be offered for broadcast and cable TV buys.   

Steve Lanzano, president and CEO of the Television Bureau of Advertising, has observed variants of the early-advertising movement in many states. "It started earlier," he told me with a nod to the "agility" of political media buyers, who are buying time dynamically.

“Their money moves on a daily and weekly basis, based on the polls,” he said.

At Gray Television Inc. (which owns or operates TV stations in 94 markets), Kevin Latek, executive VP and chief legal and development officer, also acknowledges that “early voting [puts] pressure on campaigns to ramp up advertising earlier than October.”

“We saw some 2020 Senate candidates start advertising last summer,” he said, noting that, “Political advertising displaces traditional advertising to varying degrees.”

Like Sinagoga at Effectv, Latek cited the increasing role of political ads on digital platforms, including ones each company operates.  He pointed to the growing role of targeted political ads on connected TV/over-the-top ad platforms, which are sold through the company’s ad representatives.

Political Gurus See “Everything Happening Earlier”

Steve Passwaiter, VP/general manager at Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG), which monitors political advertising, characterizes 2020 as “very unfamiliar territory.” He observes that political action committees – which are not entitled to the LUP rates that candidates pay – are outspending candidates. 

 “This year we’ll get a flood of ads early,” Passwaiter told me.  He cited the “passion that’s in the mix this year,” although he still expects 40% of campaign funds will be spent on ads during October – probably early in the month. 

Kantar envisions $7 billion in national, state and local political advertising in this election cycle, including $1.2 billion for local and network cable TV and $3.5 billion for local and network broadcast TV. Digital platforms will garner $1.8 billion of the total, with the balance going to radio, print and other media.

PQMedia, a Connecticut firm that has been analyzing election spending since 2004, expects total political advertising to top $9.3 billion this year.

Dr. Leo Kivijarv, executive VP and research director at PQMedia, also expects “October will be a bigger month than normal.”

“Spending will not be concentrated in the last two weeks before Election Day,” he told me. Like other researchers, Kivijarv expects ad-buying decisions will be made dynamically as campaign strategists track voter polls – especially in swing states – in order to throw money to lure voters who are still making up their minds.  He is especially focused on radio, which over-indexes on Black and Hispanic voters

Republican and Democratic party strategists also are evaluating how mail-in and early voting processes are affecting ad tactics. Most acknowledge that COVID-19 has curtailed traditional campaign procedures – especially for local races – such as neighborhood events or door-knocking appeals.

Jablonowski, managing partner & CTO of DSPolitical, a digital advertising company for Democratic candidates and progressives causes, said “everything is happening a little earlier.”

"Ad buys are beginning earlier than ever for the more competitive races," he told me. "Peak spending will start a bit sooner and last a bit longer than is typical," although campaigns for down-ballot races may be delayed because of fund-raising problems, he said.

“There are likely to be more buys than previous years – and they will be aligned to several key dates on a state-by-state basis,” Jablonowski added. “We’ll also see get-out-the-vote buys starting earlier and running longer in more states. But this isn’t about the number ad buys; it’s about the amount of money that is behind the buys.”

“This election requires a much larger voter education and get-out-the-vote effort to help those who are unfamiliar with new voting processes and important dates to remember in addition to Election Day. That means multiple flights, targets, and creative strategies,” Jablonowski said.

Republican political consultant Tracey agreed that early advertising to get-out-the-vote will be a prime GOP goal this year. Beyond seeing September as “the new October,” Tracey described the increased importance of get-out-the-vote efforts plus the newfound attention to over-the-top and connected TV this year.

People are learning how their smart TVs work with all their time at home,” he said. “It will be a more challenging buying environment as we move toward November.”

Tracey expects PACs as well as candidates to put funds into early voting promotions.  And ultimately he acknowledges that since 80% of Americans have already made up their minds on which Presidential candidate they favor, the big push is to get out the vote and sway that “undecided” cadre of 15% to 20% of votes to swing your way.

Tracey noted that historically early voting has been a way “to bank your base.” Now, he said, the message to everyone is, “Don’t wait for Election Day.”  He called it a tactical move to “get your base voters to bank their votes early, then concentrate on the undecided.”

As a result, ad spending is coming early “because it’s that kind of year.”

“This is the only business where you spend the most amount of money when you have the least number of prospective customers left,” Tracey said.

Attorney General Bill Barr signaled to Congress Wednesday (May 1) that he thought social media companies were doing a better job of policing their platforms in the wake of Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

That came during his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee.

Barr said it was because of our robust First Amendment and the way we now communicate that Russians were able to affect the dialog "in a way they have never been able to do before." He said there have long been efforts by foreign powers to meddle in elections, but they used to be easier to detect.

Barr said it was the technology and "democratization" of information that made the danger of such meddling "far more insidious." He said that meddling meant getting access to "effectively our whole communications system" including business systems and infrastructure.

Related: Facebook Won't Require Disclosures on News Media Alliance

Asked by Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) whether the government was able to work with the different social media giants to help counter some of that and whether those companies were already "stepping up to this challenge" and making sure they were also pushing back against foreign adversaries. "[Y]es I think the private companies are stepping up their game and being more responsible in addressing it," said Barr.

Republican Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) was not so sanguine about Big Tech. She said that as she looked at social media, they looked as though they were either willing to turn a blind eye to fake Russian accounts--pointing out some had been paid in rubles--or were negligent. Either way, she said she hoped the Justice Department had a game plan to "rein in" those social media platforms for the 2020 election.

Blackburn did not ask Barr to comment on that, and he did not volunteer an observation.