Digital TV Research now says that Disney Plus will surpass Netflix in subscribers at around 294 million globally by 2026.

This prediction triggered our BS detectors just a bit, since the same research company as recently as November had forecasted Disney Plus to reach only around 194 million customers by 2025. But it turns out that Digital TV Research hardly has plenty of cover here. 

“In November, we didn't realize how quickly Disney Plus Hotstar was going to take off in India. I don't think that Disney did either considering how much they increased their own forecasts by,” Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said in an email to Next TV Monday morning. 

In December, Disney released a revised forecast predicting its 14-month-old subscription streaming service would obtain between 230 million - 260 million subscribers by 2024. That nearly tripled earlier guidance. 

Both Disney and Murray attribute the acceleration to Hotstar. In fact, Disney Plus will only have more subscribers than Netflix in one only country, India, the research firm predicts--there will be 98 million Disney+ Hotstar subscribers versus 13 million for Netflix in 2026, according to the forecast. 

And while Disney Plus will surpass Netflix in subscribers, the lower fees it charges in India means it would beat Netflix in revenue. 

He predicts global revenue for Disney Plus will be $20.76 billion by 2026,  half of Netflix’s $39.52 billion. 

“Disney Plus Hotstar will roll out to 13 Asian countries by 2026. These countries will supply 108 million (37%) of the global Disney Plus subscriber total, but only $2.62 million (13%) of the platform’s revenues by 2026. Hotstar subscribers pay less than a third of the monthly subscription fee of their U.S. counterpart,” Murray said. 

Notably, Murray also predicts that HBO and Apple TV Plus will actually retrench from their current sizes over the next five years. 

With wireless operators like Verizon and T-Mobile offering SVOD promotions as enticements to their mobile services, streaming subscriptions initiated via smart phones are set to double to 170 million globally between 2019 - 2025, Digital TV Research said.

The figure accounts for 138 countries, according to UK research company. And it represents “gross”—in this high-churn area of product distribution, the “net” increase between 2019-2025 will only 34 million users, with the base of SVOD subscribers through mobile reaching 93 million.  

The average smart phone SVOD customer will pay for 1.83 gross SVOD subscriptions by 2025, up from 1.45 in 2019, Digital TV Research said. 

The status of the global pay-TV market over the next few years depends on where operators currently stand, according to a new report from Digital TV Research. Those among the top global operators are expected to see negative or flat growth, while those outside the top 50 are projected to gain subscribers and increase revenue.

According to Digital TV Research, of the 502 operators across 135 countries that make up the Global Pay-TV Operator Forecast, two-thirds will gain subscribers between 2019 and 2025, while 59% are expected to increase their revenue over the same period.

At the end of 2019, Digital TV Research says that the top 50 pay-TV operators accounted for 46% of the world’s pay-TV subscribers. But over the next five years, the forecast has the top 10 operators losing subscribers and the other 40 in the top 50 remaining flat, while those outside those top spots are expected to gain subscribers.

For those outside the top 50, Digital TV Research projects eight will add at least 1 million subscribers by 2025; leading operators will be China Unicorn (19.96 million projected new subscribers) and China Telecom (18.52 million). The report also forecasts eight operators will lose 1 million or more subscribers—the largest is expected to be China Radio and TV (37 million subscribers lost), but the next five are all companies from the U.S.

While there will be wide ranging swings of losses and gains, Digital TV Research sees growth for the global pay-TV market. “By end-2019, 13 operators had more than 10 million paying subscribers,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “This will reach 14 operators by 2025.”

This story was originally published in Next TV sibling publication TV Technology. 

Global pay TV revenue will fall to $150 billion in 2025, from a peak of $202 billion in 2016, despite the addition of 35 million additional subscribers, according to the latest report from Digital TV Research.

The research company predicts pay TV revenue declines in 61 countries from 2019 - 2025. And in the U.S., it’s forecasting a revenue drop over that five-year span of 35% to around $57.4 billion.

A year ago, Digital TV Research projected that U.S. pay TV revenue would decrease to about $75.7 billion by 2024—the domestic industry’s projected rate of decline has clearly picked up, at least in the eyes of Digital TV Research. 

According to Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, the “losses” are largely accounted for, in many cases, by telecom service providers shifting their priorities to broadband products

“Much of the losses are down to subscribers converting from standalone TV to a bundle where they pay more overall to the operator but less on TV services. Cord-cutting is also a major problem, especially in the U.S.,” Murray said. 

The research company also predicted U.S. satellite TV revenue to decline by $18 billion from 2019 - 2025. 

“Our forecasts assume that professional sports will restart in August following relaxations in the Covid 19 lockdown. If this does not happen, then pay TV will experience considerable churn,” Murray added.

Global revenue generated by over-the-top video services is set to nearly double from 2019 -2025, according to Digital TV Research, reaching $167.4 billion.

But the bad news, the firm said, will be a short-term hit to the growth of ad-supported VOD (AVOD) streaming services. The category, which includes Roku Channel, Tubi, Pluto TV, IMDb TV and others, will see only 10% growth this year, rising to $26.711 billion in revenue. By 2025, it will expand to $53.522 billion. 

Notably, last June, Digital TV Research predicted that the AVOD sector would grow to generate $56 billion by 2024.

“Advertising confidence has been hit,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst for Digital TV Research. “We expect lower growth for AVOD in 2020, but recovery thereafter.”

SVOD services, meanwhile, will more than double from 2019 - 2025 to nearly $98 billion. 

“SVOD has boomed during the lockdown, and thanks to the rollout of Disney Plus,” Murray added.

Digital TV Research’s analysis covers 138 countries, encompassing not only SVOD and AVOD services, but also online video rentals and sales. 

You know what they say about five-year projections of the global SVOD market. They’re like torsos. 

But hear Digital TV Research out when it projects that by 2025, the global subscription streaming market will be a two-horse race between Netflix and Disney Plus. 

In five years, Disney Plus will have quadrupled its subscriber base to 202 million and will rank second globally in subscription streaming to Netflix, which will have a projected scale of 258 million users. 

According to Digital TV Research, Amazon will be left in the dust with only around 141 million users. 

Overall, the research company projects subscription streaming will grow its base by 81% from 2019 - 2025, reaching around 1.16 billion customers. The total will grow by 170 million alone this year, Digital TV Research said. 

Revenue generated by pay TV operators in the U.S. and Canada will fall to just over $62 billion by 2025, according to new data provided by Digital TV Research.

That’s about $24 billion less than the nearly $87 billion projected by the research company that will be generated by these operators in 2020. And it’s more than $56 billion less than what was made in 2015.

These days, there are always lots of cord-cutting reports after the major U.S. pay TV operators provide their quarterly earnings data. These reports mainly focus on the number of subscribers leaving the traditional pay TV ecosystem.

But Digital TV Research’s data shows the financial impact to operators across the board. Comcast, Charter Communications, Rogers Communications and other cable operators in the U.S. and Canada will see just under $10 billion in video services revenue disappear between 2020 and 2025.

Satellite TV operators including DirecTV and Dish Network will watch just under $11 billion vanish, while Verizon, AT&T and other IPTV operators will see pay TV revenue decline from 8.4 billion to $4.4 billion over this five-year span.

Pay TV penetration into U.S. homes peaked at 87.4% in 2010, equity research firm MoffettNathanson said. As of the end of 2019, it had declined to 65.3%.

“The loss of 42 million pay TV subscribers between 2010 and 2025 is mostly responsible for this [revenue] decline,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, in a statement. "Operators now put more emphasis on broadband connections than on traditional pay TV channels.”

Revenue generated by pay TV operators in the U.S. and Canada will fall to just over $62 billion by 2025, according to new data provided by Digital TV Research.

That’s about $24 billion less than the nearly $87 billion projected by the research company that will be generated by these operators in 2020. And it’s more than $56 billion less than what was made in 2015.

These days, there are always lots of cord-cutting reports after the major U.S. pay TV operators provide their quarterly earnings data. These reports mainly focus on the number of subscribers leaving the traditional pay TV ecosystem.

But Digital TV Research’s data shows the financial impact to operators across the board. Comcast, Charter Communications, Rogers Communications and other cable operators in the U.S. and Canada will see just under $10 billion in video services revenue disappear between 2020 and 2025. 

Satellite TV operators including DirecTV and Dish Network will watch just under $11 billion vanish, while Verizon, AT&T and other IPTV operators will see pay TV revenue decline from 8.4 billion to $4.4 billion over this five-year span. 

Pay TV penetration into U.S. homes peaked at 87.4% in 2010, equity research firm MoffettNathanson said. As of the end of 2019, it had declined to 65.3%.

“The loss of 42 million pay TV subscribers between 2010 and 2025 is mostly responsible for this [revenue] decline,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, in a statement. "Operators now put more emphasis on broadband connections than on traditional pay TV channels.”

Disney+ will amass more than 101 million subscribers worldwide by 2025, but will be only half the size of Netflix, Digital TV Research predicts.

The firm forecasts sustained growth to more than 235 million users over the same span, from a current level of around $158 million.

Amazon Prime Video will also maintain its No. 2 position among SVOD service, with Digital TV Research forecasting around 135 million users for the platform by 2025.

The research company predicts slower growth for HBO Max (over 30 million users by 2025) and Apple TV+ (around 27 million).

The story, however, will be different in the U.S., Digital TV Research said, with Netflix adding only around 6 million users over the five-year span.

“Competition is intense, with several platforms ‘reclaiming’ content from others and with price wars in place,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

“Only 29% of Netflix’s subscribers will be in the U.S. by 2025,” Murray added. “The proportion will be as high as 80% for the younger HBO Max.”

Disney+ launches Tuesday.

Disney+ will amass more than 101 million subscribers worldwide by 2025, but will be only half the size of Netflix, Digital TV Research predicts.

The firm forecasts sustained growth to more than 235 million users over the same span, from a current level of around $158 million.

Amazon Prime Video will also maintain its No. 2 position among SVOD service, with Digital TV Research forecasting around 135 million users for the platform by 2025.

The research company predicts slower growth for HBO Max (over 30 million users by 2025) and Apple TV+ (around 27 million).

The story, however, will be different in the U.S., Digital TV Research said, with Netflix adding only around 6 million users over the five-year span.

“Competition is intense, with several platforms ‘reclaiming’ content from others and with price wars in place,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research.

“Only 29% of Netflix’s subscribers will be in the U.S. by 2025,” Murray added. “The proportion will be as high as 80% for the younger HBO Max.”

Disney+ launches Tuesday.

Dismissing the notion that the subscription streaming business has become saturated, at least at the global level, Digital TV Research said that gross SVOD subscriptions increased by 139 million in 2018 to 508 million, a 38% uptick.

According to the research company, the net subscriber count—what’s left after churn is considered—was up by 31%, or 83 million subscribers.

The average SVOD subscriber paid for 1.43 SVOD subscriptions at the end of 2018, up from 1.05 in 2010, Digital TV Research said.

More than a fifth of the world’s TV households had at least one SVOD subscription as of the end of last year

“China and the U.S. together accounted for 63% of the global total in 2018,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, in a statement. “China overtook the U.S. in 2018 to become the gross SVOD subscription leader. China added nearly 60 million subscriptions in 2018 alone, with the US up by 27 million (despite its relative maturity). India nearly doubled its subscription base.”

The number of U.S. pay TV subscriptions will fall from around 85.5 million this year to about 76.6 million by 2024. But the pay TV ecosystem will continue to grow over the next five years and big markets like China and India.

That’s the conclusion of Digital TV Research, which identifies the U.S. as the only significant global pay TV market in which the ecosystem is actually in recession.

According to the research company, the world’s biggest pay TV market, China, is expanded to expand its customer base from a current level of 343.1 million to 355.9 million over the next five years.

India is projected to grow from a current level of 160 million pay TV consumers to 184.4 billion over the same span.

Notably, Digital TV Research suggests that by 2024, European countries including Germany and Russia will start seeing cord cutting. 

The good news: The global pay TV ecosystem will have grown by 380 million users from 2010 to 2024.

The bad news: 2024 pay TV revenue will largely be flat with 2010, with growth occurring in developing regions that generated far less ARPU.

This was the conclusion of Digital TV Research, which said that growth in the worldwide pay TV market already peaked at $205 billion back in 2016.

In the U.S., the research company found the golden years even preceded that—the American pay TV business generated about $97.6 billion of revenue in 2010, a figure that will steadily erode to around $75.7 billion by 2024.

The real growth, Digital TV Research noted, is in places like China, which will expand its pay TV revenue from around $6.7 billion to $11.6 billion over the same 14-year span. 

Over-the-top video services will be available in 706.5 million TV homes worldwide by 2020, nearly double the 374.4 million homes expected in 2014, according to a report by Digital TV Research.

Asia will see the most growth – its report Global Online TV & Video Household Forecasts predicts that Asia Pacific will gain 233 million OTT homes between 2013 and 2020, about 61% of the global additions during the same period. The report stated that China alone will add 140 million OTT homes by 2020, taking its total to 206 million homes – more than all of Europe – and will overtake the U.S. in 2014.

By 2020, 47.6% of the world’s TV households will view online television and video, up from 15.4% in 2010, according to Digital TV Research. South Korea (79.8%) will have the highest proportion by country by 2020, with India (21.9%) at the other end of the scale.

Subscription video on demand subscribers should rise to 199 million by 2020, according to the report, more than double the 83 million expected by the end of 2014. North America’s share of the total will fall from 57% in 2014 to 34% in 2020. While that shows that most of the growth in OTT services will happen outside the U.S., America will still contribute 62 million homes to the 2020 total, with Japan in second place with 20 million homes.

Digital Research estimates that by 2020, 13.4% of the world’s TV households will subscribe to an SVOD package like Netflix or Amazon Prime, up from only 1.6% in 2010 and an expected 6.1% by year-end 2014. The proportion in 2020 will vary from 49.6% in the US and 48.5% in Sweden to 2% in India and Vietnam. Ten countries will have SVOD penetration in excess of one-third of TV households by 2020.