Convergence Research Group estimated that over-the-top revenue in the U.S. rose 37% in 2021 to $39.4 billion and is expected to nearly double to $69 billion by 2024, as subscriber additions, about 80 million this year, should level off to 50 million by 2024. 

According to its just-released report -- The Battle for the American Couch Potato, which analyzed more than 75  OTT services (and over 50 providers) including Netflix, Disney Plus, Hulu, Amazon Prime Video and Warner Bros. Discovery -- Convergence said it expected U.S. OTT revenue to rise about 30% to $51 billion in 2022. 

At the same time, revenue and subscribers for traditional linear TV will continue their steady decline. Convergence said U.S. cable, satellite and telco TV access revenue fell 4% in 2021 to $91 billion, and should drop another 6% to $85.5 in billion in 2022, with further slippage in 2023 and 2024. Total U.S. TV subscribers dipped by 6.5 million in 2021, about the same as 2020, according to Convergence. That number should pick up to a loss of 7 million subscribers in 2022 and 7.2 million in 2024. 

The percentage of cord cutter/never households also should increase. Convergence estimated that  47% of U.S. households did not have a TV subscription with a cable, satellite or telco TV provider in 2021, rising to 53% in 2022 and 64% by 2024. 

Broadband customer growth is continuing to slow -- Convergence estimated that about 3.7 million high-speed internet subscribers were added in 2021, down  from 5.1 million in 2020, while revenue grew 10% to $79.6 billion. The researcher predicts that total broadband subscriber additions will tick up to 4.3 million (with a 7% revenue boost) as telco and fixed wireless additions improve, offsetting any sluggishness on the cable side.■

Over-the-top revenue rose 37% in 2018 to $16.3 billion and is on pace to grow another 35% to $22 billion in 2019, according to The Convergence Research Group's annual The Battle for the American Couch Potato reports .

According to the Convergence reports, traditional pay TV subscribers will continue to decline -- down and estimated 5% in 2019 from a 4% drop in 2018 -- average revenue per unit will increase. Convergence estimates that traditional pay TV ARPU will be three times that of its OTT counterparts by 2021.

Still, the downward trajectory of traditional pay TV distribution will affect revenue -- Convergence estimates that 2018 US Cable, Satellite, Telco TV access (not including OTT) revenue fell 3% to $103.4 billion and decline at a similar rate this year.

“The TV-Movie Industry is being reconstructed from the inside and by the outside, as programmers now directly compete against their traditional TV access and independent OTT buyers that rival in terms of content spend,” Convergence said in the report.

Convergence estimates that U.S. TV subscribers declined by 4.01 million in 2018, up from a drop of 3.66 million in 2017. That pace is expected to quicken in 2018 to a loss of 4.56 million TV subs in 2019.

At the same time Convergence estimates that Broadcast & Cable TV Network Online advertising (increasingly driven by OTT) will represent 6.5% of 2019 US TV advertising revenue.

According to the report, cord cutting started to rise in 2010, and Convergence estimated that as of 2018 30% of households did not have a traditional TV subscription, up from 26% in 2017. By the end of this year, the researcher predicts that 34% of households won’t have a traditional TV subscription.

Still, the researcher believes that the OTT space will continue to be dominated by a handful of players -- mainly Netflix, Amazon and Hulu -- who are expected to outlive streaming upstarts that will “fail due to insufficient subscriber traction, cost, and competition.”

At the same time other programmers -- like Disney and WarnerMedia -- have taken content away from Netflix and brought it in-house for their own streaming services, Hulu continues to spend aggressively on content (outpacing even Netflix and Amazon on a per-sub basis, according to Convergence), CBS/Showtime’s has added streaming customers at a faster rate than expected, Discovery has forged relationships with Philo, Hulu, Sling, and YouTube TV, and will be launching an OTT service with the BBC soon. NBC Universal has joined the streaming video club too, expected to launch an OTT service next year and Viacom has purchased Pluto TV & AwesomenessTV, and is producing for Amazon & Netflix.

While pay TV subscriptions continue to pace downward, broadband relationships are on the rise. The report estimated that 2.85 million broadband subscribers were added to the U.S. rolls in 2018, with revenue from the service up 7% to $61.6 billion. Convergence predicts similar growth metrics for 2019.

Cable will continue to attract the bulk of broadband customers, Convergence said.

RELATED:Pay TV's 'New Normal': Brahm Eiley on Convergence Consulting’s ‘The Battle for the North American Couch Potato’ Study

Canadian research company Convergence Consulting Group estimated that 1.13 million U.S. TV households cut the cord in 2015, about four times the pace of 2014, with another 1.11 million expected to cancel their pay TV subscriptions in 2016 as over-the-top and mobile services continue to grow.

In its annual research report – The Battle for the North America Couch Potato – Convergence said that although pay TV revenue rose 3% in 2015 to $105 billion and should  increase another 2% to $107 billion in 2016, it was far below the pace of OTT services. Convergence estimated that OTT revenue increased 29% to $5.1 billion in 2015, rising another 30% to $6.7 billion in 2016.

The pay TV universe continued to shrink – the report estimates that there was a decline of 1.13 million U.S. TV  subscribers in 2015 (compared to 283,000 in 2014). Cord never/cord cutter households – those that do not subscribe to a pay TV service – also were on the rise to 24.6 million in 2015 from 22.5 million in 2014. Convergence estimates that 26.7 million households (an increase of 2.1 million homes) will join the cord-never/cord-cutter ranks in 2016.

Content spend increased for both traditional and online networks in 2015, with Convergence  predicting traditional networks spent about $53.1 billion on content in 2015 (up 8%) while new players like Amazon, Apple and Netflix spent an estimated $7.1 billion in 2015 up 27% over the prior year. Increased spending is expected to continue for both sectors – Convergence estimates traditional networks will shell out $57.2 billion for programming in 2016 (up 7.7%), while non-linear providers will spend $8.7 billion this year, up 22.5%.