Fox Sports’s live 2022 FIFA World Cup coverage kicks off Sunday with a heavy emphasis on linear television for the 64-game tournament despite an unprecedented fall start, heavy competition from other North American major sports leagues and an unfriendly time difference between the U.S. and World Cup host country Qatar. 

Still, Fox executives are confident the World Cup will attract both the hard-core sports fan and casual viewers with its coverage of the premiere soccer tournament. The Fox broadcast network will air 35 matches throughout the tournament, including the semi-final round games and the World Cup final, according to the network. FS1 will air the remaining 29 games live. Most Fox televised matches will air between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m. ET.

The November start of the World Cup — prior tournaments took place during the summer — presented some logistical problems for Fox. The network airs a full complement of afternoon and evening college football games on Saturdays as well as Sunday-afternoon NFL contests. Fox Sports VP of programming and scheduling Daniela Jeffries said Fox Sports was able to work around its crowded schedule and the eight-hour time difference between Qatar and New York to develop a lineup allowing consumers to watch most of the games during reasonable viewing hours. 

“There was a little concern about how this was all going to fit,” Jeffries told Multichannel News. “As the tournament revealed itself, we saw that it wasn’t so bad. There are some challenges in the sense that there are games that probably would have been Fox games versus cable games at a different time of the year, but overall we’re pretty happy and positioned to have over 200 hours, which is comparable to what we would have done in the summer when the schedule would have been lighter.” 

Jeffries also said Fox Sports worked hard to make sure it could distribute all the games on broadcast or cable TV to broaden viewership. “We felt good about being able to get in as much linear coverage as we were,” she said. 

Fans who wish to view World Cup games live online can watch on FoxSports.com, but only if they subscribe to a multichannel video programming distributor (MVPD) or virtual MVPD service. Replays of every game will be available on the app, as well as on the Fox-owned Tubi.com streaming service through its World Cup FAST channel, including in high-resolution 4K format.

Fox will also make in-match previews and live pre- and post-match shows for every World Cup game available via the Fox Sports soccer Twitter account. 

The addition of the digital outlets offers fans more options to consume World Cup news and highlights compared to 2018, as well as provides a powerful marketing tool to promote upcoming telecasts. “We’ll be able to offer more features and highlights available on the app and have replays on Tubi — all of which we weren’t able to offer in 2018,” Jeffries said.  

Also different from 2018’s World Cup is this tournament will include the U.S. men’s soccer team, which was eliminated from participating in the World Cup four years ago. The network hopes to draw huge viewership for its USA-England Group B matchup, which will take place in the early afternoon on Black Friday, November 25. 

Given the U.S. men’s team’s participation and Fox Sports broad distribution of the games, Sports TV analyst Lee Berke said the World Cup should perform well from a ratings perspective. In 2018 Fox and FS1 combined to average 2.6 million viewers, according to Nielsen. 

“The games are airing during the busiest time of the sports year, but there’s a built-in audience for the games, and with matches airing early in the morning they’ll avoid  running directly against college and pro football games,” he said. “It should achieve the numbers that they want to achieve this time around.”

NBCU’s Spanish-Language Coverage

NBC Sports Group holds the Spanish-language rights to the World Cup and will offer every World Cup game on Telemundo and, for the first time, on NBCU’s streaming service Peacock. Peacock will offer the first 12 matches free before making the remaining 52 games available to Peacock Premium (pay) subscribers, according to NBC Sports. 

For NBC Sports and Telemundo, having both the broadcast and streaming platforms available for fans to view the games will help boost both awareness and viewership, said Berke.

“The two growing platforms for sports right now are broadcast and streaming,” he said. “The Peacock component in particular will provide a substantial boost overall across different screens.”

The U.S. soccer team’s group stage games are listed below (all times ET). The full 2022 World Cup schedule can be found here. ▪️

• Nov. 21: U.S.-Wales (2 p.m.)
• Nov. 25: England-U.S. (2 p.m.)
• Nov. 29: Iran-U.S. (2 p.m.)

Streaming continued to increase its share of TV viewing in August, although cable and broadcast also gained share during the month, according to Nielsen.

Steaming’s share climbed to 35% from 34.8% in July, the first month in which streaming topped both cable and broadcast. 

Among the streaming services, YouTube tied Netflix for the first time with a 7.6% share. Time spent watching YouTube was up 2.8%, including a 14.9% jump from YouTube TV. Netflix had an 8% share in July, but its big hit Stranger Things has cooled down. 

Hulu edged up to 3.7% from 3.6%. Amazon Prime Video dipped to 2.9% from 3%; Disney rose to 1.9% from 1.8%. 

HBO Max posted a big gain, rising to a 1.2% share from a 1% share with the launch of House of the Dragon.

Cable’s share edged up to 34.5% in August from 34.4% in July. 

Broadcast viewing increased 1.2% and its share rose to 22.1% from 21.6%. Broadcast got a boost from shows like Big Brother in the “general variety” genre, and a rise in sports viewing, with baseball’s Field of Dreams game, the NFL’s preseason and college football attracting viewers.

Compared to a year ago broadcast viewing was down 10.9% and its share was off by 2.4 points.

Nielsen’s “other” category shrunk to 8.5% in August from 9.2%. 

Total time spent viewing was down slightly in August from July’s level.  ■

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Many broadcasters focus their ad sales efforts on surpassing their perceived competition, such as the cross-town rival in a local broadcast market or a new cable channel that is aimed at a similar audience. In reality, this isn’t the case: for most media companies, the largest source of competition for advertising dollars is from Google, Facebook, Amazon, and other social media and Internet properties. Consider a few statistics:

- New York-based market research firm eMarketer reported that TV ad spending in the USA totaled $71 billion in 2019. 

- Also according to eMarketer, digital ad spending in 2020 totaled $139.8 billion for the U.S., which includes many different forms of advertising, such as banner ads, video ads and social media ads.  The top three recipients of these ad dollars were Google, taking in $40 billion, Facebook, capturing $35 billon, and Amazon which garnered $14 billion.   

- The Interactive Advertising Bureau reported on a survey conducted by Advertiser Perceptions to assess the intentions of larger advertisers and brands for spending in 2021. The survey found that 56% of video budgets are allocated to digital in 2021 as compared to 41% for traditional TV, including broadcast, cable and satellite. The survey also reported that digital video (which includes connected TV) is expected to enjoy double digit growth across all channels in 2021.

Broadcasters have good reasons to believe their inventory is more valuable than their digital competition. Television ads continue to have unassailable audience reach, particularly to populations that are not as active online, and they can be scheduled to reach consumers at home during leisure hours, when they have fewer other distractions. In contrast, most Internet usage happens at work during business hours. Broadcasters can also ensure that advertisers’ messages are not juxtaposed with unsafe or undesirable content. Plus, many studies have shown that ads on TV are more trusted by viewers than on other platforms.

Broadcasters do have barriers that make purchasing ads more difficult for buyers. Numerous local, as well as some national media companies, have inefficient internal ad sales processes, due to legacy systems and processes which compare unfavorably to the simple, quick sales transactions offered by online platforms. National marketers trying to place ads for a major TV campaign are confronted with markets that have multiple station groups and independent locals, many of which rely on disjointed sales and reporting systems. These difficulties are many times compounded by inconsistent metrics and reporting tools, making it difficult for advertisers to aggregate and analyze viewership data.

The sore point of lacking common metrics for reporting ad reach/effectiveness across media properties is detrimental for advertisers seeking a simplified ad buy. Although certain types of metrics are only available through interactive channels (such as click-through rates), broadcasters are unable to provide the data that they do have in a format that can be easily compared across multiple stations and markets. Although this improvement might, on the face of it, appear to increase competition between broadcasters, the reality is that traditional media companies are facing a much more significant threat from digital video advertising outlets on multiple facets. By teaming up and providing useful, granular data, broadcasters can help level the playing field against the digital ad giants in not only the ad sales process but in the post-sale attribution process helping to alleviate churn.

Broadcasters as a collective group can help expand the market for television advertisements by teaming up to define common currencies, ad sales platforms, and automated interfaces. By simplifying the ad sales process, broadcasters can reduce transaction costs without dipping into their revenue streams. Shared platforms would be particularly useful for advertisers with large budgets and a national footprint, but will also benefit smaller broadcasters and advertisers by making the TV ad sales process as easy as purchasing digital ads. 

TV advertising continues to represent a unique and powerful way for marketers to reach large and diverse audiences. Unfortunately, current methods and systems used to buy and sell TV advertising tend to suffer from high levels of inefficiency, fragmentation and legacy solutions, putting media companies at a disadvantage relative to digital ad providers. These core and common issues have the potential to be rectified, though, if broadcasters can work together to identify the issues and simplify and streamline the ad sales process, making them even more attractive to today’s marketers.

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A day after live streams for its radio and television stations were attacked by hackers in an apparent ransomware incident, Cox Media Group properties across the country were still largely unavailable.

Cox Media owns 65 radio stations in 11 markets, 33 television stations in 20 markets, and several multi-platform streaming video and digital platforms. The TV stations, in markets like Boston; Pittsburgh; Dayton, Ohio; Seattle; and Tulsa, Oklahoma are a mixture of major network affiliates like ABC, Fox, CBS, NBC and My Network TV and independents. 

According to a report in Inside Radio, the attack began on the morning of June 3, and was apparently centered on internal networks and live streaming capabilities such as web streams and mobile apps at the Cox Media properties. Websites for the stations and most programming remained unharmed, but according to Inside Radio some live stream programming and newscasts had to be canceled. 

The attack apparently didn’t affect traditional pay TV feeds for the channels. Dish Network, which reached a carriage deal with Cox Media for about 14 channels in December, said it experienced no issues with the broadcaster. 

Cox Media representatives did not return requests for comment, but according to reports, several stations informed employees to shut down their work computers and phones on June 3.

NBC News reported that at least two stations — ABC affiliate WFTV in Orlando, Florida, and NBC affiliate WPXI in Pittsburgh — were affected, with WFTV telling workers to stay home Thursday.  Other reports claimed that Cox stations in Charlotte, North Carolina ABC affiliate WSOC-TV and Tulsa Fox affiliate KOKI-TV were affected as well. As of Friday afternoon some reports said a few of the stations were beginning to resume their online streams, but streams for Cox Media radio stations were still unavailable.

As of 6 p.m. ET Friday, online streaming for Cox Media’s Alexandria, Louisiana ABC affiliate KLAX-TV, Atlanta ABC affiliate WSB-TV, Boston Fox affiliate WFXT, Dayton, Ohio CBS affiliate WHIO-TV, Charlotte ABC affiliate WSOC-TV, Orlando ABC affiliate WFTV and Tulsa Fox affiliate KOKI-TV was either unavailable or showing partial replays of old newscasts. 

Streaming services like Hulu Live, which carry local broadcast streams, also were impacted. Hulu Live temporarily replaced WSB-TV’s broadcast feed with ABC News Live until the local feed was restored. 

According to a report in cybersecurity publication The Record, Cox Media employees were saying earlier this morning that they had shut down their systems in time and that they “should be back up and running soon.” 

The attack comes shortly after some high-profile ransomware incidents, including the May hack of the Colonial Pipeline which choked off gasoline supplies up and down the East Coast for days. Colonial  reportedly paid $4.4 million to hackers to get fuel flowing again. Earlier this month, meat producer JBS shut down nine beef plants in the U.S. after a similar ransomware attack.  

On Thursday, deputy national security adviser Anne Neuberger issued an open letter urging companies to take security precautions to protect against ransomware attacks.

Encouraged by the steady rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations and the prospect of herd immunity to the virus, Moody’s Investors Service predicted that total advertising revenue growth could top 6% this year.

In a note to clients Monday, Moody’s senior VP Neil Begley wrote that the quick pace of the vaccine rollout could provide “multiple paths to a recovery for the subsectors of the media and entertainment industry.”

Moody’s noted that ad revenue fell nearly 4% in 2020, dominated by the pandemic that forced most American to remain in their homes. As a result, GDP dipped almost 4% as well.  

Also Read: Selling Cable Short

While Begley warned the recovery might be inconsistent across different areas of the country, he nevertheless expected a strong rebound.

“Where confidence, employment and economic activity grows more quickly because of mass vaccinations, we expect advertisers to spend heavily to attract pent-up demand for many products and services,” Begley wrote, adding that digital advertising platforms, broadcasters and networks should benefit the most. 

Also Read: NFL Deal Gives Amazon Ad Business a Boost: Analyst

The movie business was decimated by the pandemic -- Moody’s estimated that domestic box office in 2020 was about $2 billion, compared to $12 billion in 2019. But after a shutdown in production, Begley wrote that “studio pipelines are as full as they have ever been and ready to fill the void once theaters can reopen at reasonable levels. Broadcast networks and stations may have a harder go at it," he wrote, because of a longer production hiatus. 

“Production did resume in a limited fashion by the fourth quarter, but the content pipeline is not likely to be filled to normal capacity until production returns to a more normal level,” he wrote. “So the speed of vaccinations is imperative for the industry.”

"The Path to Media Ownership and Sustainability," an all-day virtual symposium on November 6, is the FCC’s next program in its initiative “to empower disadvantaged communities and accelerate the entry of small businesses, including those owned by women and minorities” into the media and programming industries. In addition to financial speakers and station executives, the program will include Capitol Hill staff members who will outline policies to expand media ownership diversity.

The Nov. 6 symposium comes on the heels of today’s (Oct. 23) “Tech Supplier Diversity Opportunity Showcase.” Both events are being organized by the FCC’s Advisory Committee on Diversity and Digital Empowerment (ACDDE). 

For the “Access to Capital” program, which will run from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Eastern Time, the focus will be on broadcaster financing and sustainable revenue. Media executives and lenders will describe current tactics to obtain financing for broadcast station transactions “in today’s challenging financial circumstances,” according to the FCC announcement of the program. In addition, experts will examine the history of the previous broadcast tax certificate policy and the potential for a new tax certificate policy to increase ownership diversity. 

The symposium will include presentations from Nielsen Global Media, led by senior VP for Community Alliances Stacie deArmas and senior VP for Product Leadership Bill Rose. Their panel will examine ratings measurements for multi-ethnic broadcast stations and will feature a discussion of how small and diverse broadcasters can attract increased advertising revenue.

Caroline Beasley, CEO of Beasley Media Group, LLC and chair of the ACDDE Access to Capital Working Group will open and close the day-long program. The line-up of speakers and panelists includes Jeffrey Smulyan, chairman/CEO of Emmis Communications; DuJuan McCoy, president/CEO of Circle City Broadcasting, LLC; Raúl Alarcón, president/CEO/chairman of Spanish Broadcasting System, Inc.; Russell M. Perry, CEO, Perry Broadcasting; James Winston, president of the National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters; Tomás Martinez, co-owner, Solmart Media; Adonis Hoffman, founder of The Advisory Counsel, LLC; Wiley Rein LLP partner Anna Gomez (representing the Hispanic National Bar Association); Wiley Rein LLP partner and former FCC commissioner Henry Rivera; and Maurita Coley Flippin, president of the Multicultural Media, Telecom and Internet Council and a member of the ACDDE Diversity in the Tech Sector Working Group.

In addition, Congressional staffers will offer updates on pending legislation intended to increase diverse media ownership. 

Additional information and registration is available from Jamila Bess Johnson, the Designated Federal Officer for the ACDDE: 202-418-2608; Jamila-Bess.Johnson@fcc.gov or at  https://www.fcc.gov/advisory-committee-diversity-and-digital-enpowerment

Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) has introduced a Senate bill that would allow TV stations that are part of a larger broadcast group to qualify, individually, for COVID-19 small business "forgivable" loans.

The Local News and Emergency Information Act of 2020, mirrors language in the House HEROES Act, but Republicans have signaled the omnibus Democrat-backed aid bill would be DOA in that body, but there is support from both sides of the aisle for the broadcast aid bill.

Currently, TV stations that are part of a larger group don't qualify for small business COVID-19 aid in the CARES Act. The bill would allow them to do so, but the money could only be spent on the needs of a specific physical location, which means it could not be claimed by the broadcast group owner for other purposes.

The National Association of Broadcasters has been pushing Congress to add broadcasters to the small business category, so it applauded the new bill.

“Advertising losses have devastated the local media business in recent weeks at a time when credible, lifesaving local news and information is needed most," said NAB president Gordon Smith. "Broadcasters look forward to working with Congress to ensure that this legislative language is included in future Coronavirus economic relief efforts to help preserve local media and local journalism.”

Also backing the bill are Sens. John Boozman (R-Ark.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

With the sale of certain cable and production assets to The Walt Disney Co. nearing the finish line, 21st Century Fox reported steady fiscal first quarter results, with revenue up 2% and cash flow rising 4.6% in the period.

Fox agreed to sell its FX, FXX and National Geographic cable channels, its 21st Century Fox film and TV production studios, and its 30% interest in online video pioneer Hulu to Disney in July for $71.3 billion. The deal, which received a conditional nod from European regulators on Nov. 6, is expected to close sometime in the first half of 2019. 

Fox reported overall revenue of $7.2 billion in the period, fueled by a 19.8% increase at its television unit and a 3.6% gain at its cable channels.

Operating income before depreciation and amortization (OIBDA), a unit of cash flow, increased 4.6% overall to $1.87 billion, fueled by the television unit (up 37.7%) and filmed entertainment (up 8.2%).

In a research note, Sanford Bernstein media analyst Todd Juenger said the gains in broadcast TV were fueled by political ads, The World Cup and better than expected ratings for NFL games.

Juenger noted those factors all were expected and should have been baked into consensus estimates, “and Fox still beat.”

On the cable side, affiliate revenue was up 9% (compared to an 11% gain last year) and advertising revenue rose 7%, mainly due to Fox News.

For broadcast, retransmission consent revenue rose 19% and advertising revenue rose 22% in the quarter.

“Investors preparing for New Fox care most about TV and [Fox News Channel],” Juenger wrote. “That seems to be where the strongest operating performance is clustered (at least as positioned by the press release).”

Fox, citing its pending deal with Disney, said it will not hold a conference call with analysts today to discuss quarterly results.

After the Disney deal closes, Fox will focus on live sports and news, retaining its broadcast TV station and Fox broadcast network, cable new channels Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network, and sports channels FS 1, FS 2 and Big Ten Network.

“We continue to deliver against our growth plan even as we make important strides toward completing our Disney transaction and launching Fox in the first half of 2019,” Fox executive chairman Lachlan Murdoch said in a statement. “We have assembled a stellar leadership team for Fox, giving us further confidence in the new company’s ability to capture opportunities in live programming while delivering long-term value for shareholders. Our quarterly performance builds on the operational and financial achievements of last year and sets up our businesses for continued momentum under both the enlarged Disney and the future Fox.” 

Dejero and Intelsat have teamed on a hybrid IP video transmission platform for broadcasters that combines on-demand connectivity to both cellular- and satellite-based networks.

That platform, called CellSat, relies on Dejero’s patented network blending technology, which can mix cellular connectivity from multiple mobile network carriers with Ku-band IP connectivity provided by Intelsat, they said.

That combo, the companies added, can provide broadcasters with the bandwidth necessary to go live from most locations. If the bandwidth available from cellular connections drops due to network congestion or other factors, CellSat automatically adds in satellite connectivity to balance out the bandwidth requirement.

CellSat doesn’t require the scheduling of satellite time, and the platform’s software is designed to dynamically allocate the satellite bandwidth needed. The platform also includes pre-certified encoding and receiving equipment.

Most satellite vehicles with existing Ka-band or Ku-band satellite equipment can be upgraded to work with CellSat, they said.

Dejero said CellSat is available in the U.S. and Canada, and expects to roll it out to other regions in 2018.

Dejero and Intelsat introduced CellSat ahead of IBC 2017, set for Sept. 14-19 in Amsterdam.

 “We are addressing the dilemma that broadcasters face about which video transport assets to deploy to a news story or live event,” Bogdan Frusina, founder of Dejero, said in a statement.

“Today’s broadcasters are challenged with quickly producing high-quality, reliable television coverage in environments that run the gamut from sparsely populated in extremely remote areas to overcrowded with a congested network,” added Rob Cerbone, Intelsat’s VP and general manager of media services, and a former exec of Time Warner  Cable. “Coupling Intelsat’s high performing, ubiquitous  Ku-band IP connectivity with Dejero’s blended cellular technology will give broadcasters greater assurance when covering live events. Dejero CellSat was designed with simplicity in mind so crews can focus on setting up quickly and getting the live shot back to the broadcast facility and on the air.”

CBS All Access, the digital subscription, video on demand and Nielsen-measured live streaming service launched by broadcaster CBS last year, has reached an agreement with the CBS Affiliate Board and has secured early deals with a number of affiliate partners, giving the service access to local content in more than half of the country.

Signing off on the deal are CBS affiliates such as Dispatch, Graham Media, Gray, Hearst, Lilly Broadcasting, Meredith, Morgan Murphy, Morris Network, Neuhoff Media, Nexstar, Raycom and Withers, the broadcast giant said. The live linear feeds in many of the markets represented by these 12 affiliate groups will begin rolling out this month. Teh deal comes about a month after the CBS Affiliate Board said it had come to terms with the network.

The addition of these affiliates – which represent 56 markets nationwide – to the 14 owned-and-operated CBS stations that participated in CBS All Access’ October launch brings the live linear feed coverage of CBS All Access to 55% of U.S. households. The 14 CBS owned stations include markets such as New York, Los Angeles and Chicago. The new markets to be added include Atlanta, Phoenix, Orlando, Cleveland, Columbus, St. Louis, Charlotte, Hartford, Kansas City and Las Vegas. 

“This is another key step in the company’s long-standing strategy to grow our business in a way that complements our existing ecosystem,” said CBS CEO Les Moonves in a statement. “Adding CBS affiliates to the mix will give viewers the opportunity to watch more CBS programming whenever they want on whichever device they choose. We look forward to adding more affiliate partners to build CBS All Access nationwide.”

All Access offers a live stream of local programming from affiliates and select on-demand programming like 2 Broke Girls, 60 Minutes, The Amazing Race, Big Brother, with ad-free access to older shows such as The Andy Griffith Show, Twin Peaks, The Brady Bunch, Cheers, and Family Ties, for about $5.99 per month. The company has not revealed how many customers have signed on to the service, but at a recent conference, Moonves said All-Access was “ahead of projections.”

 “We are excited to have in place a groundbreaking agreement which begins a new era in distribution for CBS affiliates said vice chair of Dispatch Broadcasting and chairman of the CBS Affiliates Board Michael Fiorile in a statement. “CBS All Access is designed to take advantage of the growth in place-shifting by giving our viewers the utmost ease of accessibility to their favorite local programming. We see it as an opportunity to expand our reach to consumers by delivering our stations anywhere and anytime our viewers want to watch.”

Specific terms of the agreement were not disclosed, but the company said each affiliate partner will participate in a revenue-share and will also benefit by having live viewership in their markets applied to their Nielsen rating.

The ability to live stream local CBS stations through CBS All Access is made available through Syncbak, in which CBS has a minority investment.

In the markets that do not yet offer live-streaming of their local CBS station, CBS All Access subscribers have access to nearly 7,000 episodes on-demand via the CBS App for iOS and Android, on CBS All Access’ Roku channel and online at CBS.com, with additional connected devices being added in the coming months. CBS All Access’ on-demand offering includes episodes from the current season – including full current seasons of 16 primetime shows with episodes available after they air – as well as previous seasons and classic shows.

Spending on national TV advertising dropped 2% in the fourth quarter, according to new figures from research company Standard Media Index.

Broadcast ad spending was down 2% to $4.8 billion, while cable networks saw a 1.6% fall to $6.8 billion in the quarter, which started slowly but showed improvement in December.

The decline reflects a big drop in upfront commitments made by advertisers. SMI says the value of commercials bought in the upfront fell 7%. Broadcast was down 8% and cable was down 7%.

The networks were able to make up some of that shortfall in scatter. SMI says fourth quarter scatter was up 34% for the broadcasters and 23% for cable networks.

Among the broadcast networks, NBC had the largest share and grew its sales by 3% in the quarter. CBS' sales were up 2%. Telemudo sales were up 5%. Fox ad sale were down 12% in the quarter, Univision was off 6% and ABC dipped 2%, according to SMI.

ESPN, the ad sales leader in cable,  was up 3%. AMC Networks registered a 28% gain, while Viacom's collection of channels was up 2%.

.

TV advertising dropped 9% in October, with cable's rate of decline below the medium's overall fall.

According to data from Standard Media Index, spending on cable decreased in 7% in October, versus a 9% downturn for the broadcast networks.

“SMI’s latest data shows advertisers held back dollars in October which caused a decline across the market, driven by a slow start to the new TV season. We anticipate that falling commodity prices will flow through to more money in consumers’ pockets in the coming months and ad dollars will begin to follow,” said James Fennessy, chief commercial officer at SMI.

With a weak upfront selling season, scatter has become a bigger part of the television ad business. For broadcasters, 16% of their revenue came from ads sold in scatter—close to air date—versus 11% in October 2013. For its part, cable saw scatter account for 23% of revenue, up from 17% in 2013.

The declines came despite gains in the media, consumer electronics and pharmaceuticals categories.

Total ad spending in October was down 4% from a year ago, even as digital continued to grow. Programmatic digital was up 49% last month, while mobile grew 22%, video rose19%, display increased 17% and search expanded 16%.

Through the first 10 months of 2014, digital was ahead 11%

SMI gets it revenue data directly from the computer systems at media agencies representing about 80% of total spending.

With the Senate on the line and close races in key battleground states—North Carolina, Colorado—the TV political ad money is piling up.

According to Kantar Media/CMAG data from the Center for Public Integrity, TV ad spending on Senate races totalled $321.4 million as of Oct. 13. That is an increase of almost $100 million in the past four weeks.

That total includes local broadcast TV, national network and national cable (no local cable). It also includes ads that mention a candidate but do not overtly call for his or her election or defeat. It only counts ones that have run, not future ad buys.

So far 372,200 ads have run.

The following are the top nine states in Senate TV ad spending.

1. North Carolina        $46.6 million

2. Georgia                  $34 million

3. Colorado                 $30 million

4. Michigan                 $28.9 million

5. Kentucky                $27.9 million

6. Iowa                        $23.8 million

7. Arkansas                $21.8 million

8. Louisiana                $21.6 million

9. Virginia                   $10.1 million

Cable's share of local video ad spending will drop from 22% this year to 18% by 2019, akin to the decline that local broadcast TV channels face as their ad revenue share falls from 64% to 58% during the same period, according to the new "U.S. Local Media Forecast 2015" that research firm BIA/Kelsey  unveiled this week. Local online video advertising will attract most of the diverted ad spending, with its share growing from 9.6% this year to 18.7% in 2019, according to the analysis.

Local cable advertising, which BIA/K pegs at $6.9 billion this year, will drop slightly in 2015 and then teeter upwards for a few years, settling at $7.4 billion in 2019.  [See chart.]

Throughout the media world, the next few years will see a "steady shift toward digital media," the BIA/K report concludes.  Today's ad spending split between "traditional" media (77%) and digital media" (23%) will migrate to a 65%/35% split by decade's end.

"We expect the pace of growth in the overall local advertising marketplace to moderate through 2019, resulting in a 3% compound annual growth rate," said Mark Fratrik, chief economist at BIA/Kelsey. The standout will be the online/digital advertising sector.  Fratrik expects revenues in that category to see a 12.2% CAGR through 2019, compared with essentially flat revenues for traditional advertising (-0.5% CAGR) during the same period.

Reflecting current changes in advertising economics, BIA/Kelsey has lowered its overall local ad spending forecast for 2014 (including all media) to $137 billion, down from its original $138 billion forecast.  The company expects "a slight increase" to $139.3 billion next year, "reflecting a slightly stronger U.S. economy."

Online/digital will account for more 25.2% of total local media revenues in 2015, BIA/K's study predicts. "Mobile local" and "local social" (including "search") will lead the growth in this sector.  BIA/Kelsey foresees:     

• Mobile local ad revenues will grow from $4.3 billion in 2014 to $6.6 billion in 2015
• Local social media revenues will grow from $2.5 billion in 2014 to $3.6 billion in 2015.  

• Local search revenues will grow from $7.1 billion in 2014 to $7.2 billion in 2015
• Local display revenues will grow from $4.3 billion in 2014 to $4.9 billion in 2015
• Local online video revenues will grow from $2.3 billion in 2014 to $3.0 billion in 2015

BIA/Kelsey released its forecasts during its "Leading in Local" conference in New Orleans this week.

FCC chairman Tom Wheeler is indeed planning to vote on a broadcast incentive auction rule framework at the May 15 meeting, according to senior officials at the Federal Communications Commission, speaking to reporters on background.

The auction will include what they said was high first offers for broadcast spectrum, but that the auction would be entirely voluntary.

Wheeler circulated the draft to the other commissioners Thursday (April 17). In a blog posting he reiterated that, for broadcasters, the auction would be "a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for an infusion of cash to expand their business model and explore new innovations, while continuing to provide their traditional services to consumers. We will ensure that broadcasters have all of the information they need to make informed business decisions about whether and how to participate."

The officials outlined the band-plan framework to be voted on, though making clear it was a draft that could be changed in negotiations with the other commissioners.

The officials emphasized that the goal of the auction was to free up spectrum for wireless, but that it would have to balance that goal with the other goal of giving broadcasters a one-time-only financial boost and preserving the service for those who want to stay in the broadcast business.

The auction item will be divided into four parts, dealing with the band plan, auction process, post-auction transition, and post-transition regulatory issues (see below).

The outline was generally along the lines of the framework previously reported.

The band plan will feature paired spectrum of both uplink and downlink spectrum with a gap between, and a guard band separating wireless and broadcast spectrum. Wireless companies will bid for 5 MHz generic blocks of spectrum rather than licenses.

The officials said that, in the repacking, the FCC would attempt to preserve the exact coverage areas (contours) of stations as of February 2012, not just the same number of viewers. But it will use the new OET-69 data to calculate interference protections for repacked stations, something broadcasters are strongly opposed to.

The auction will be successful, statutorily, if it covers broadcasters' bids to give up spectrum plus a $1.75 billion broadcaster relocation and repacking fund.

The FCC is holding three auctions to raise money to free up spectrum for mobile wireless and pay for FirstNet, the interoperable broadband first responder network.

FCC officials predict that by the time of the broadcast incentive auction, it will have raised most if not all of the $7 billion in estimates that network will cost, with the broadcast auction going to pay for compensating broadcasters for giving up spectrum, moving from UHF to VHF or sharing channels, plus deficit reduction.

The plan is still to hold the auction in mid-2015.

The chairman signaled earlier this week that, in a separate item, some of the low-band spectrum up for bid will be set aside so that carriers who do not have as much of that below-1 GHz spectrum will be able to bid on it. AT&T and Verizon together account for about 70%.

The officials would not discuss the separate spectrum aggregatin/screen item or the timing of its vote.

AT&T has warned it may skip the auction if its bidding options are too circumscribed by that separate spectrum aggregation limits item the FCC is expected to vote on at the same meeting, based on early reports about the item. The National Association of Broadcasters has also warned that it could take the FCC to court if the rules stray from what they argue is the statutory mandate for protecting TV station's coverage areas and interference protections in the repacking of stations post-auction.

The FCC Friday issued a fact sheet outlining the elements of the framework.

Band Plan:

Adopts a 600 MHz band plan with specific paired uplink and downlink bands (which enables two-way communications), comprised of five megahertz “building blocks,” consistent with the wireless industry’s technical standards;

Accommodates variation in the amount of spectrum recovered from broadcasters in different geographic areas in order to prevent the “least common denominator market” from limiting the quantity of spectrum we can offer generally across the nation;

Adopts Partial Economic Areas (“PEAs”) as the licensing area for the 600 MHz band to permit entry by providers that contemplate offering wireless broadband service on a localized basis, yet permit providers that plan to provide service on a larger geographic scale to aggregate PEAs;

Adopts technical and services rules similar to those governing adjacent 700 MHz band;

Requires interoperability across the entire new 600 MHz band.

With respect to other incumbent services in the television band, including low power television, translators, and wireless microphones, which may be displaced, the draft R&O:

Adopts a transition allowing for continued operation until new license holders become operational.

Anticipates the Commission considering issues surrounding these displaced services in separate proceedings contemporaneous or shortly following the adoption of the R&O.

Unlicensed Spectrum: Unlicensed spectrum refers to spectrum that is not licensed to an individual private user, such as the spectrum used for Wi-Fi and Bluetooth. The draft R&O:

Makes the 600 MHz guard band and channel 37 available for unlicensed use, thereby making spectrum available for unlicensed devices nationwide.

Anticipates initiating a separate rulemaking proceeding shortly following the adoption of the R&O to consider changes to existing technical rules to govern the use of unlicensed devices in the 600 MHz band and channel 37 while protecting other users on the same or adjacent frequencies.

Auction:

Integrates the reverse and forward auctions in a series of stages. Each stage will consist of a reverse auction and a forward auction bidding process aimed at a specific spectrum clearing goal.

For the reverse auction, adopts a descending clock format in which the price offered to each station for the participation options they select (go off the air, channel share, move from UHF to VHF,) will be adjusted downward as the rounds progress. Simply put, the price offered to broadcasters will drop with each successive round of bidding.

For the forward auction, adopts a multiple round ascending clock format in which the prices will generally rise from round to round as long as the demand for licenses exceeds the amount available. When the clock price stops rising, the bidders who are still demanding the licenses become the winners.

Determines that the auction will close when a stage meets the “final stage rule” -- namely, when the auction proceeds meet a specific reserve that will be determined by the Commission.

If the final stage rule is not satisfied, we will reduce the clearing goal and begin another stage of the auction

III. Repacking Methodology: Repacking is the term used to describe the process of assigning new channels to broadcasters who remain on the air following the incentive auction.

Repacking:

Adopts a repacking methodology that makes all reasonable efforts to preserve the coverage area and population served by broadcasters as of February 22, 2012 (the date of the enactment of the Spectrum Act).

As required by Congress, adopts the methodology described in OET 69 to determine the coverage area and population served by each station, using updated computer software and current, accurate data.

Post-Auction Broadcaster Transition:

Commits to making the transition as smooth as possible.

Requires repurposed spectrum to be cleared no later than 39 months after the repacking process becomes effective.

Requires broadcasters that successfully bid to give up their licenses or to share channels to cease operations on their pre-auction channels three months from the receipt of their auction proceeds.

Provides broadcasters remaining on the air after the auction up to 39 months to transition to their new channels. Because repacking will not impact every broadcaster the same way, each station will be assigned a transition deadline within that period tailored to its individual circumstances.