CTIA: The Wireless Association said the Federal Communications Commission's 2010 prediction of the exploding need for wireless spectrum was exactly right, but the agency fell short in its goal of finding enough to meet that demand.

That's according to a new white paper, "Mobile Data Demand: Growth Forecasts Met," released Monday (June 22), which said the FCC's broadband demand projections in the 2010 National Broadband Plan of 562 petabytes of data per month (1 Petabyte equals one quadrillion bytes) was within a petabyte of the actual total (563 per month).

By contrast, that same report called for reallocating 300 MHz for mobile broadband by 2015. "Despite the FCC’s nearly perfect projections, the government has made 135 MHz spectrum available for mobile broadband since 2010, which is less than half of what the FCC suggested would be required by 2015," CTIA said.

And even with the AWS-3 auction -- which freed up 65 MHz -- and the broadcast incentive auction, which could free up more than 100 MHz more, projections for 2019 put traffic at six times the current level, with no plans to make enough spectrum available. The target for spectrum clearing by 2020, per the Obama administration mobile broadband plan, is 500 MHz.

"America lacks a long-term and comprehensive licensed spectrum plan for 2020 and beyond to meet the predicted mobile traffic demands," CTIA president Meredith Attwell Baker said in announcing the paper's release, which comes as the FCC gets down to the short strokes on structuring the broadcast incentive auction, planned for early next year.

Federal Communications chairman Tom Wheeler said Thursday he thought the agency's decision, one way or the other, about whether Dish Network-connected designated entities deserved $3 billion in bidding credits (discounts) in the AWS-3 auction would not delay the upcoming broadcast incentive auction.

Responding to a question by Todd Shields of Bloomberg following the FCC's May meeting Thursday (May 21) about whether a decision against Dish and the DEs would mean having to re-auction the spectrum, and thus potentially postpone the planned early 2016 incentive auction, Wheeler said he did not think so, adding that the "question that exists" in the AWS-3 auction is the DEs' discount. "If there is a decision made that that is inappropriate," he said, the FCC would not re-auction the spectrum; rather, the DEs would have to pay an additional $3 billion.

Wheeler later conceded that the ultimate penalty -- some have suggested Dish and the DEs colluded, while Dish and the DEs have said the rules clearly allowed their collaboration -- could be re-auctioning the spectrum, but he added, "The rules as they stand right now are: 'Pay three billion dollars more.'"

There has been much talk lately about Dish's financial interest in, and relationship to, designated entities (DE) Northstar and SNR Wireless, as the FCC decides whether to grant those DE's some $3 billion-plus — and a 25% discount — in bidding credits for their successful AWS-3 spectrum bids. One of the latest to weigh in is Northstar itself.

Fairbanks, Alaska-based Northstar said Thursday it welcomed the FCC's review of its licenses. The commission last week said Northstar's (and SNR's) applications for the spectrum they won in the auction had been accepted, though that does not mean they have yet been granted or the bidding credits approved. Still, it was a step forward and a chance for the company to argue the spectrum would be going to help minorities.

"With these licenses, Northstar Wireless is poised to become the largest minority, Native American-controlled provider of wireless services in the United States, establishing a benchmark of diversity in an industry virtually devoid of minority ownership," the company said.

The DE determination is meant to help small businesses, including minority and women-owned companies.

“We have previously been granted 43 Commission licenses, partnered with AT&T and Cricket, built out the entire Chicago market from scratch, and deployed innovative services such as prepaid unlimited plans and affordable mobile broadband. This experience will be of enormous value as we prepare to provide new services going forward,” said Aaron Schutt, president of Doyon, LTD., an investor group that "owns and controls" Northstar, and in which Dish is a partner.

Verizon has alleged Dish illegally colluded with Northstar and SNR during the auction, which Dish disputes.

Senate Republicans signaled April 29 that they are looking into those allegations and asked for information from the FCC, Dish, Northstar and SNR.

After three rounds of the FCC's new six half-hour-round bidding schedule, the AWS-3 spectrum auction has passed $41 billion ($41,026,521,500). There were 91 new bids in the most recent round (52) and $90,015,100 in new bids.

The auction is in day 14 (it began Nov. 13) with 65 MHz of spectrum (1,614 geographic licenses) up for bid in the 1695-1710 MHz, 1755-1780 MHz, and 2155-2180 MHz bands.

There are 70 qualified bidders, the largest being AT&T, Verizon and T-Mobile—Sprint sat it out.

The auction has blown by its $10.587 reserve price and the $15-$16 billion pre-auction estimates of some to be by far the largest-ever spectrum auction take, though the bids are provisional until the winners fill out the paperwork, put up the balance of the money and any objections to the auction are vetted.

Read more at B&C here. 

The FCC's AWS-3 auction looks like it might not be a weeks-long affair. As of round 18, $22,829,069,200 had been bid, more than doubling the $10.587 reserve price. All the licenses have drawn at least one bid now, and there were a whopping 1,754 new bids.

Currently the Big Apple is drawing the big bucks. Current bid: $1,712,964,000. The low bid in the next round is over $2 billion.

Read more at B&C here.